布鲁盖尔研究所-全球化和自动化是劳动力市场竞争的来源，并支持欧盟失业保险（英）-2023.7-63页_940kb

Summary

This paper examines how concerns about different sources of labor market competition—automation, globalization, and migration—affect public preferences for preventive social policies within the context of a conjoint experiment on European-level unemployment programs. The study argues that varying perceptions of risks stemming from these factors shape demands for EU unemployment insurance support by influencing policy generosity, international openness, and third-pillar research initiatives.

Background: amid societal shifts brought by technological advancements, cross-border trade expansion, and population flows, citizens exhibit evolving concerns that impact their stance towards social protection measures. These concerns may incline public to either seek stronger or more restrictive forms of protection depending on their perceived threats.

Methods: The study utilizes a conjoint experiment from the European Union Risk Sharing (EURS) survey, analyzing how subjective threat perceptions moderated public support for policy packages differing in generosity, redistribution, governance, taxes, conditionality, and social investment. Linear models with three main interaction hypotheses assessed policy ideologies among 13 European countries.

Key findings:

• Concerns about automation positively increase demand for generous, unconditional support packages. Increased concern with automation strengthens support for progressive taxation, fewer individual job activation conditions, and educational investments if the risks are accepted.
• Migration concerns strongly reduce support for cross-border welfare redistribution schemes and national governance interventions, while aligning more with traditional tax-adjusted national support systems.
• Unlike migration and automation, globalization fears do not significantly modify demand for social investment despite the threat perception. These concerns are more ambiguous but consistently lean towards closed systems.

Implications: The findings suggest a differentiated public response to immigration robotization and globalization, Independent of geographical areas andrisk perception levels, reinforcing the idea that various forms of job competition require distinct policy responses to foster public acceptance.

Evidentiary strength: Europe's experimental dataset with nearly 80,000 survey responses provides robust measurements across 13 Compared countries, each measuring threat levels on acontinuous scale0 to10.