2010年-世界发展银行全球_Economics_of_Adaptation_to_Climate_Change___Mozambique_Volume_2_Annexes_51页_5mb

Summary of Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change - Mozambique

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the economics of adaptation to climate change in Mozambique, focusing on the social dimensions, hydrological modeling, and water resource management. It outlines the vulnerability of different regions and sectors, explores the implications of climate change on water availability, and discusses the potential adaptation strategies.

Main Points

Social Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies

• Social Vulnerability Hotspots: The document identifies areas with high or very high risks from drought, flood, and cyclone.
• Coping Mechanisms: It explores the local vision of development priorities, perceived climate change impacts, and feasible response strategies.
• Vulnerable Areas/Sectors: The document asks which areas or sectors are most vulnerable and what key drivers contribute to this vulnerability.
• Adaptation Investments: It highlights the need for specific adaptation option investments and sequenced combinations of investments to respond to climate change impacts at both national and sub-national levels.
• Pro-Poor Adaptation: It investigates how pro-poor these identified options are, where they should be applied, and who the vulnerable groups are.
• Preconditions: The document emphasizes the policy and institutional preconditions necessary for effective implementation of adaptation strategies.
• Synergies and Trade-offs: It discusses the synergies and trade-offs among the various adaptation options.

Hydrological Modeling

• CLIRUN-II Model: This model is used to simulate the impact of climate change on runoff. It is an advanced version of the CLIRUN model and incorporates features such as a snow-balance model and potential evapotranspiration models.
• Two-Layer Approach: The model uses a two-layer system to simulate soil and groundwater interactions, allowing for a more accurate representation of runoff dynamics.
• Calibration for Extreme Events: The model is calibrated to better represent the tails of the runoff distribution, which are critical for design and operation planning.
• Runoff Projections: The document provides runoff change percentages for different climate projections, indicating potential increases or decreases in water availability for various basins.

Water Resource Management in Mozambique

• CMwRM Model: The Comprehensive Mozambique Water Resource Model (CMwRM) is designed to account for all major water resource management aspects, including both upstream and within Mozambique.
• International and Sub-Basins: The model includes nine international river basins and seven sub-basins fully contained within Mozambique.
• Water Withdrawals: It outlines current water withdrawals for various sectors in upstream countries and within Mozambique, emphasizing the significant role of agriculture in water use.
• Irrigation Potential: Mozambique has considerable irrigation potential, with a large portion of land suitable for irrigation but currently underutilized.
• Irrigation Statistics: The document provides detailed statistics on the area equipped for irrigation, the area actually irrigated, and the types of irrigation technology used.

Key Information

Climate Projections and Runoff Changes

• Ipsl_a2 (Mozambique Wet): This projection indicates varying degrees of increase in annual runoff, with some basins experiencing up to 129% increase.
• Ukmo1_a1b (Mozambique Dry): This projection shows a range of decreases in annual runoff, with some basins experiencing up to 34% decrease.
• Global Wet (NCAR csm 3.0 a2): The model also considers global climate projections, which show similar trends in runoff changes as the Mozambique-specific projections.

Water Withdrawals and Usage

• Total Water Withdrawal in Mozambique: 635 million m³/year.
• Irrigation and Livestock: 550 million m³/year.
• Domestic Use: 70 million m³/year.
• Industry Use: 15 million m³/year.
• Population and Water Use: Mozambique has a population of 9,182,000, with a population density of 24 inhabitants/km². The per capita water availability is 11,318 m³/year.

Irrigation Statistics

• Equipped Area: 118,120 hectares.
• Actually Irrigated Area: 40,063 hectares.
• Irrigation Technology: Most irrigation in Mozambique is surface irrigation, with sprinkler and localized irrigation being less common.
• Irrigated Crops: The main crops are sugar cane, vegetables, rice, and tobacco, with vegetables being the most widely irrigated.

Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Vulnerability: Being downstream in large river basins makes Mozambique vulnerable to flooding and changes in water policy upstream.
• Adaptation Needs: The document highlights the need for integrated water resource management strategies that account for both upstream and downstream users.
• Synergies and Trade-offs: It discusses the potential synergies and trade-offs among different adaptation strategies, emphasizing the importance of a balanced approach.

Conclusion

The document provides a comprehensive analysis of the economics of adaptation to climate change in Mozambique, highlighting the importance of integrated water resource management, the impact of climate change on water availability, and the need for targeted and pro-poor adaptation strategies. The use of advanced hydrological models like CLIRUN-II and CMwRM is crucial in understanding and addressing these challenges.