20230712-招银国际-康方生物-09926.HK-A_leading_biopharma_in_bi-specific_antibodies_and_other_innovative_biological_therapies_60页_6mb

Summary of Akeso Biopharma Company Report

Company Overview

Akeso is a Chinese biopharmaceutical company established in 2012, specializing in the R&D, manufacturing, and commercialization of innovative antibody drugs, with a focus on bi-specific antibodies. Listed on HKEx in 2020, Akeso aims to become a leader in China's biopharma sector and has expanded globally through partnerships.

Investment Thesis

• Initiation at BUY: Target price of HK$52.65 per share, based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 10.60% and terminal growth rate of 3.0%.
• Key Highlights:
  • ** Innovative pipelines** with Best-in-Class/First-in-Class (BIC/FIC) potential include drugs like AK104 and AK112.
  • Broad collaborations with global pharma companies (e.g., Summit Therapeutics, Merck) to accelerate development and commercialization.
  • Sufficient manufacturing capacity and a large, experienced talent pool support growth.
  • Strong revenue drivers: AK104 and AK112 are expected to lead sales growth, with projections of RMB1.2~1.3bn revenue from AK104 in 2023E.

Key Drug Candidates

• AK104 (Dual PD-1/CTLA-4 BsAb): Globally first approved for 2/3L recurrent/metastatic cervical cancer (R/M CC). Shows potential for blockbusting in front-line treatments for indications like gastric cancer, lung cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
• AK112 (PD-1/VEGF BsAb): First-in-class BsAb for lung cancer across all treatment settings. Out-licensed to Summit Therapeutics for ex-China rights in a deal worth up to US$5.0bn, with ongoing Phase 3 trials in NSCLC, HCC, and gastrointestinal cancers.
• Other Programs: Includes AK117 (CD47 mAb) for hematologic malignancies, AK105 (PD-1) for oncology, and non-oncology candidates like AK101 (IL-12/IL-23 Ab) for autoimmune diseases.

Financial Analysis and Valuation

• Projected Revenue: Total risk-adjusted sales from products and licenses are estimated at RMB4,927mn in FY23E, growing to RMB5,077mn in FY25E.
• Profitability: Expected to turn profitable by FY26E, with net losses projected for FY24E and FY25E (RMB696mn and RMB812mn, respectively).
• Valuation: DCF model supports a target price, reflecting high growth potential but sensitivity to clinical and commercial risks.

Investment Risks

• Clinical/Regulatory: Failure in drug development or approvals.
• Competition: Intense competition from MNCs and domestic players in key therapeutic areas.

Appendices

• Company Profile: Strong shareholder base led by CEO夏瑜, with a diverse employee pool supporting R&D and commercialization.
• Disclosures: Analyst certification and disclaimers not included in summary.

This summary condenses the core aspects of the report, highlighting Akeso's potential and risks.