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The Carbon Contained in Global Oils

Core Content

This document explores the evolving landscape of global oil resources and their varying carbon footprints. It highlights the significant changes in the composition and characteristics of oils due to technological advancements and the expansion of unconventional oil sources. The report emphasizes the need for policy guidance to manage these new oils in a way that balances energy exploitation with climate protection.

Key Themes

• Diverse Oil Types: Oils are no longer a homogeneous resource. They vary in composition, extraction techniques, processing requirements, energy inputs, product yields, and climate impacts.
• Carbon Content and Weight: Lighter oils (e.g., tight shale oil) contain less carbon than heavier oils (e.g., bitumen oil sands). The carbon content typically ranges between 82 and 85 percent by weight.
• Unconventional Oils: These include solid bitumens, extra-heavy oils, and ultra-light oils, each requiring different processing methods and yielding distinct co-products.
• Climate Impact: Heavier oils, particularly bitumens and extra-heavy oils, produce more carbon emissions and high-carbon co-products such as pet coke. These emissions have long-term environmental consequences.
• Policy Objectives: Policymakers should prioritize the use of lighter oils, avoid the combustion of high-carbon co-products, and enhance energy efficiency across the oil value chain.

Key Views

• Global Oil Market Dynamics: The oil market is expanding due to new discoveries and technological innovations. This has led to an increase in the number of crude oil types traded globally, now estimated at around 160.
• Carbon Footprint Complexity: The carbon footprint of oils is influenced by their physical and chemical properties, including API gravity and viscosity. These properties affect the energy required for processing and the resulting emissions.
• Environmental and Economic Trade-offs: As the oil value chain evolves, there are increasing trade-offs between energy production and climate impact. The development of new oils may not necessarily lead to higher production of high-value fuels like gasoline and diesel.
• Need for Climate Policy: Without robust climate policy, the development of new oils will be driven primarily by oil prices rather than environmental considerations.

Recommendations for U.S. and Global Policymakers

1. Expand Knowledge: There is a need to fully characterize the carbon potential of new oils and establish open databanks to improve understanding of their climate impacts.
2. Price Carbon: Implementing a carbon pricing mechanism can help align energy and climate security goals.
3. Curb High-Carbon Oils: Development of oils with high carbon content and their co-products should be restricted unless methods to mitigate climate impact are in place.
4. Maximize Energy Efficiency: Focus on efficiency measures, especially for higher-carbon oils, to reduce overall carbon emissions.
5. Trace Carbon Footprints: Use advanced methods like high-temperature simulated distillation (HTSD) to better understand and manage the carbon footprint of different oils.

Changing Reality of Oil

• New Oil Sources: The global oil market now includes a wide array of unconventional oils, such as solid bitumens and ultra-light oils.
• Historical Context: Previously, it was believed that global oil reserves were nearing exhaustion, prompting an "all of the above" strategy. However, new technologies have unlocked new reserves and transformed the market.
• Market Shifts: The increasing demand from emerging economies, like China, has driven oil prices to historic highs and spurred technological innovation in extraction and processing.
• Future Outlook: Oil prices are expected to range from $60 to $200 per barrel, and the market will continue to evolve with new oil types and processing techniques.

Differentiating Oils

• Composition and Properties: Oils differ in weight (API gravity) and viscosity. Lighter oils have simpler hydrocarbon structures, while heavier oils have more complex and longer hydrocarbon chains.
• Intermediate Products: Oils are processed into different intermediate products, which serve as building blocks for commercial petroleum products. These products vary significantly depending on the oil type.
• Product Yields: Light oils yield more gasoline and diesel, while heavy oils produce more residual fuels and pet coke, which are less valuable and more carbon-intensive.

Bringing New Oils to Market

• Processing Challenges: Heavier oils require more energy and extensive processing to produce marketable products, leading to higher carbon emissions.
• Co-products: The refining process generates various co-products, such as pet coke, which has significant environmental impacts.
• Market Complexity: As the variety of oils increases, so does the complexity of the oil value chain, necessitating better data and policy frameworks to manage these changes effectively.

The Proliferation of Pet Coke

• Pet Coke as a Co-product: Pet coke is a by-product of heavy oil processing and is becoming a significant energy source.
• Environmental Impact: Pet coke emits more carbon dioxide than coal and natural gas when combusted, making it a major concern for climate policy.
• Uses of Pet Coke: It is used in cement production, steel manufacturing, and as a fuel in refineries. Its high carbon content and impurities make it less desirable than conventional fuels.
• Carbon Emissions: Pet coke emits 3.4 tons of CO₂ per ton combusted, which is 10% more than bituminous coal and twice that of natural gas per BTU.

Managing the Carbon in Unconventional Oils

• Processing Techniques: Different oils require different processing techniques, which impact their carbon emissions and product yields.
• Policy Implications: Effective policy must consider the varying carbon footprints of oils to ensure sustainable development and reduce environmental harm.
• Technological Advancements: New technologies, such as HTSD, are essential for accurately characterizing the carbon content of oils and their co-products.

Conclusion

The increasing diversity of oil types and their varying carbon footprints present both opportunities and challenges for policymakers. The need for comprehensive data, carbon pricing, and targeted policies is critical to ensuring that the development of new oils aligns with climate goals. Understanding and managing the carbon content of these oils will be essential in shaping a sustainable energy future.