2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_IMF_Office_in_India_12页_1mb

South Asia: The Robust Outlook Continues

Core Content

South Asia's economic outlook remains strong, with aggregate growth expected to rise to 7.1% in 2018 from 6.5% in 2017. Despite temporary shocks in India, such as the 2016 currency exchange initiative and implementation issues with the 2017 Goods and Services Tax (GST), the region's growth is primarily driven by domestic demand, supported by favorable financial conditions and improving external demand.

Main Views

• Growth Trends:

  • South Asia's growth has slowed slightly in 2017 but is expected to rebound in 2018.
  • India's growth slowed due to temporary policy shocks, but is projected to recover to 6.7% in FY2017/18 and 7.4% in FY2018/19.
  • Other countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, show more stable or improved growth rates.

• Inflation:

  • Inflation remains broadly stable in the region, with some fluctuations due to food and commodity price changes.
  • Inflation in India is expected to rise to around 5% in 2017/18, within the RBI's target range.
  • Bangladesh's inflation is projected to stabilize at current levels, while Sri Lanka's inflation peaked at 7.8% in October 2017 and is expected to decline to mid-single digits in 2018.

• Macroeconomic and Financial Vulnerabilities:

  • Fiscal deficits and public debt remain higher than in comparator regions.
  • Credit growth is above 15% in many countries, with high non-performing loans.
  • Current account deficits are expected to rise to 1.6% of GDP in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018.
  • Bhutan's current account deficit is expected to remain high in the short term but will decline over the medium term due to increased hydropower exports.

Key Information

Growth Drivers

• Domestic Demand: Strong consumption and investment remain the main growth drivers.
• Favorable Financial Conditions: Low volatility in global financial markets supports growth.
• Structural Reforms: Continued reforms are expected to enhance long-term growth potential.

Policy Priorities

• Fiscal Consolidation: Durable and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation is a priority, especially in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
• Domestic Revenue Generation: Increasing domestic revenue is essential to support fiscal consolidation and public investment.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Addressing financial vulnerabilities, including distressed assets and non-performing loans, is critical.
• Structural Reforms: Improving product and factor markets, labor reforms, and agricultural reforms are key to boosting growth.

Regional Outlook

• India: Growth is expected to recover, with structural reforms playing a crucial role in raising medium-term growth above 8%.
• Pakistan: Growth is strengthening, but external and fiscal vulnerabilities remain. Exchange rate flexibility and fiscal discipline are important.
• Bangladesh: The economy is strong, with growth at 7.3% in FY17. Fiscal deficit is expected to remain close to the target.
• Sri Lanka: Growth is expected to rebound in 2018, supported by manufacturing and services. Inflation is projected to stabilize.
• Nepal: Growth is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2017/18, with inflation rising. Fiscal decentralization and monetary tightening are needed.
• Afghanistan: Growth remains modest, constrained by security and political uncertainty. Fiscal and banking reforms are ongoing.
• Bhutan: Growth remains robust at around 6%, driven by hydropower and services. The focus is on managing new hydropower projects and boosting domestic revenue.

Risks and Challenges

• Short-Term Risks:

  • Policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could tighten financial conditions.
  • Capital outflows may affect emerging market economies with external vulnerabilities.

• Medium-Term Risks:

  • A more rapid tightening of global financial conditions.
  • Sharp adjustment in China.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the region and with the United States.
  • Inward-looking policies in major economies.
  • Climate change and natural disasters.

Conclusion

South Asia's economic outlook is robust, with growth expected to remain strong in 2018. While the region benefits from a global upswing and strong domestic demand, it faces macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities. Policymakers should focus on fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improving financial sector stability to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.