安永-2024年地缘战略展望：如何在持续的地缘政治复杂性中繁荣发展（英）-2023.12-38页_3mb

2024 Geostrategic Outlook Summary

Key Themes

The 2024 Geostrategic Outlook identifies two primary themes shaping the global geopolitical landscape: Multipolarity and De-Risking. Multipolarity refers to the increasing complexity of international relations, with more actors influencing global affairs and challenging traditional alliances. De-Risking emphasizes governments' focus on reducing dependencies and enhancing domestic capabilities for national security, driven by heightened competition and uncertainty.

Top 10 Geopolitical Developments for 2024

1. The Geopolitical Multiverse: Geopolitical tensions expand, with swing states and smaller actors increasing influence, creating a fragmented multiverse of alliances and rivalries.
2. Geopolitics of AI: AI innovation and regulation drive distinct technology blocs, leading to divergent global approaches that enhance geopolitical competition.
3. Domestic Challenges in the US and China: Economic and political issues in these two largest economies heighten risks and could impact global growth and stability.
4. Global Elections Supercycle: Widespread elections in key markets (representing ~54% of global GDP) introduce policy uncertainty and potential social unrest.
5. Prioritizing Economic Security: Governments intensify efforts to secure domestic production, focusing on strategic sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy.
6. The Diversification Agenda: Companies reconfigure supply chains through onshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring to reduce reliance on geopolitical rivals.
7. Geopolitics of the Oceans: Competition for control of and access to maritime resources, including critical minerals and shipping lanes, intensifies due to energy security and emissions goals.
8. Competition for Commodities: Geopolitical rivalries over critical minerals, food, and water exacerbate supply chain disruptions and price volatility.
9. Dual Track Green Policies: Sustainability regulations evolve, with some governments relaxing disclosure rules while others enforce stricter climate policies.
10. Climate Adaptation Imperative: Focus shifts from mitigation to adaptation as the impacts of climate change become more pronounced, driving investment in resilience strategies.

Business Recommendations

• Build Geopolitical Considerations into Business Models: Incorporate geopolitical dynamics into strategy to navigate disruptions across sectors like advanced manufacturing and technology.
• Increase Supply Chain Resilience: Assess and diversify supply chains to mitigate risks from economic security policies and geopolitical instability.
• Adapt Sustainability Strategies: Account for evolving climate and green policies in sustainability initiatives to capitalize on opportunities and avoid regulatory challenges.

Conclusion

The 2024 environment presents both risks and opportunities, with multipolarity and de-risking driving a fragmented global economy. Executives must proactively manage these factors to thrive amid volatility.