2005年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_-_North_West_Frontier_Province_Economic_Report____Accelerating_Growth_and_Improving_Public_Service_Delivery_in_the_NWFP___The_Way_Forward_207页_6mb

Pakistan North West Frontier Province Economic Report Summary

Core Content

This report, titled "Accelerating Growth and Improving Public Service Delivery in the NWFP: The Way Forward," is a joint effort between the Government of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the World Bank, with financial support from the UK Department for International Development (DFID). It outlines a strategy to enhance economic growth and public service delivery in the NWFP, focusing on poverty reduction, employment generation, and the role of the private sector.

Main Challenges and Strategy

Poverty and Employment Challenges

• The NWFP is one of the poorest provinces in Pakistan, with estimated per capita GDP in 2002/03 at 60% of the national average.
• Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas, with nearly 40% of households relying on remittances from migrant workers to escape poverty.
• The literacy rate for those 10 years and older in the NWFP was 38% in 2001/02, compared to 45% for Pakistan and 61% for India.
• The infant mortality rate is high by international standards but the lowest in Pakistan at 56 per 1000 births.
• The contraceptive prevalence rate is 30%, below the national average of 32%.
• The province faces a high fertility rate of 4.3, contributing to population pressure and low per capita incomes.

Key Constraints

• Geographical Isolation: The NWFP's inland location results in high transport costs, affecting competitiveness of its exports.
• Front-line State: The province hosted over three million Afghan refugees during the war, leading to instability and stress on infrastructure.
• Weak Private Sector: The private sector is underdeveloped, with limited job creation and business activity. Peshawar is perceived as the weakest major city in Pakistan.
• Unskilled Workforce: The workforce is largely illiterate and unskilled, limiting productivity and employment opportunities.

Strategy for Development

• Economic Growth: Sustained growth is necessary to absorb the growing labor force and reduce unemployment. A growth rate of about 6% annually is required to maintain current levels, while 7-7.5% is needed to reduce unemployment and emigration.
• Education and Health Improvements: Enhancing these sectors will improve productivity and allow the poor to benefit from economic growth. Special attention is needed to improve the status of girls and women and reduce the high fertility rate.
• Social Safety Nets: Strengthening safety nets will protect families from extreme poverty due to health issues or other shocks.
• Targeted Development Plans: Implementing specific plans for underdeveloped areas, such as mountainous regions, is essential.

Private Sector Development

Investment Climate

• The report highlights the need to improve the investment climate by reducing policy uncertainty, enhancing tax administration, and addressing electricity shortages.
• It suggests privatizing the Bank of Khyber, allowing private management of industrial estates, and enabling the private sector to provide infrastructure maintenance.

Key Industries

• The private sector's performance in key industries is constrained by governance issues, including regulatory inefficiencies and lack of support for business development.
• Recommendations include creating linkages and deepening supply chains, tapping into the economic potential of cities, and improving the investment environment.

Public Service Delivery and Human Development

Education and Health

• Education and health indicators in the NWFP are below the national average, with significant gender disparities.
• Female literacy and school enrolment rates are among the lowest in the country, while male rates are closer to or above the national average.
• Health outcomes show large gender gaps, indicating limited access to preventive and curative care.

Systemic Issues

• The report identifies systemic issues in public service delivery, including inefficiencies and lack of coordination.
• It recommends reforms to improve the composition and efficiency of public spending, better management of public investment projects, and furthering fiscal decentralization.

Fiscal Reforms and Sustainable Development

Mobilizing Public Resources

• The report emphasizes the need to mobilize additional public resources to support development.
• It suggests improving the efficiency of public spending and ensuring that the provincial government focuses on core functions such as infrastructure, education, and health.

Fiscal Decentralization

• Fiscal decentralization is recommended to enhance the effectiveness of public investment and service delivery.
• The report includes an annex on the medium-term fiscal framework and the implications of rationalizing province-district transfers.

Impact of the October Earthquake

• A powerful earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale struck the NWFP on October 8, 2005, affecting five districts: Abbottabad, Batagram, Kohistan, Mansehra, and Shangla.
• These districts account for nearly a quarter of the province's geographical area and 17% of its population.
• The earthquake caused significant damage to social and physical infrastructure, with preliminary estimates indicating direct losses of $1 billion and indirect losses of nearly $300 million.
• Reconstruction costs are estimated at over $1.5 billion, considering improved quality standards and future risks.
• The earthquake has created additional challenges, including increased demand for basic goods, potential migration, and strain on infrastructure and jobs.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen Governance: Focus on core functions and promote a vibrant private sector.
• Improve Investment Climate: Reduce policy uncertainty, enhance tax administration, and address electricity shortages.
• Enhance Education and Health: Implement targeted improvements to bridge gender gaps and reduce fertility rates.
• Develop Social Safety Nets: Protect vulnerable families from extreme poverty.
• Implement Targeted Development Plans: Address the needs of more backward areas.
• Privatize and Decentralize Services: Allow private sector involvement in financial services, infrastructure maintenance, and industrial management.
• Fiscal Reforms: Improve the efficiency and composition of public spending and further fiscal decentralization.

Conclusion

The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for the NWFP to accelerate growth and improve public service delivery. It highlights the importance of a supportive policy environment, investment in human capital, and the role of the private sector in driving development. The earthquake has added urgency to these efforts, emphasizing the need for long-term planning and resource mobilization.