2003年-世界发展银行全球_Nigeria_-_Strategic_Conflict_Assessment___Methodology_Key_Findings_and_Lessons_Learnt_4页_182kb

Nigeria Strategic Conflict Assessment Summary

Core Content

The Nigeria Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA), conducted in 2002/3, was a landmark initiative that marked the first time a national conflict assessment was supported by multiple donors. It aimed to analyze the sources of violent conflict in Nigeria and develop strategies to address them in order to support the country's development goals, especially in the context of the April 2002 elections that had triggered significant unrest.

Main Points and Key Findings

Background and Context

• Nigeria, a country with a population of 130 million and a per capita income of below $300, has a history of political instability, including 30 years of military rule.
• Since 1999, the transition to democracy has been accompanied by over 10,000 deaths and the displacement of more than 300,000 people due to conflict.
• The SCA was initiated to understand and address the root causes of conflict, especially those that threaten the stability of the Nigerian state.

Methodology

• The SCA was led by the National Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) under the Presidency.
• It was conducted in two phases:
  1. Phase 1 involved a desk study by local consultants to map the causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict.
  2. Phase 2 focused on fieldwork and policy recommendations.
• Donors such as DFID, UNDP, USAID, and the World Bank supported the process through an Advisory Group, promoting multi-donor collaboration and local ownership.
• The methodology followed DFID's framework, which included:
  • Analysis of causes, actors, and dynamics
  • Mapping of existing responses
  • Recommendations for policy options

Key Findings

• Political corruption and lack of transparency in oil and gas revenue are central to violent conflict in Nigeria.
• Ethnic and religious divisions are often manipulated by elites to fuel violence.
• Unemployed youth, especially in urban areas, are a key group involved in violent conflicts.
• Democracy's survival depends on the government's ability to manage internal pressures and address root causes.
• Civil society lacks the capacity and strategic vision to effectively engage in conflict prevention.
• Media can exacerbate tensions rather than help reduce them.
• Business leaders are major players in some conflicts but have been largely ignored.
• The SCA identified both national and regional issues, allowing for targeted policy responses.

Lessons Learnt

• Multi-donor collaboration is beneficial but requires high coordination, trust, and shared commitment.
• Local leadership is essential for credibility and sustainability; donors must respect local protocols and timelines.
• Conflict assessment methodologies must be flexible and context-sensitive, with an emphasis on capacity-building.
• Ongoing engagement is necessary, as the SCA is not a one-time process but a foundation for future interventions.
• Donor involvement should be strategic, aligning with their mandates and the country's needs, rather than imposing external structures.

Next Steps and Outcomes

• A National Action Plan (NAP) was formulated in March 2003, focusing on six key themes:
  1. Early warning and preventive action
  2. Addressing economic and social causes of conflict
  3. Mainstreaming conflict prevention into government and donor programs
  4. Improving mediation mechanisms
  5. Political process reform
  6. Security sector reform and small arms reduction
• Donors have committed to using the SCA as a basis for improving conflict-sensitive strategies.
• The World Bank and DFID are supporting the integration of conflict sensitivity into the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP).
• Future projects, such as Fadama II, will incorporate conflict risk screening.
• Peace-building initiatives, including a television drama series targeting urban youth, are being planned.

Key Partners

• Nigerian Federal Government (particularly IPCR)
• International Donors: DFID, UNDP, USAID, World Bank
• Civil Society and Local Stakeholders

Conclusion

The SCA process in Nigeria was a pioneering effort that emphasized local ownership, multi-donor collaboration, and context-specific analysis. It provided a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of conflict and laid the groundwork for a National Action Plan aimed at reducing violence and promoting sustainable development. The lessons from this process underscore the importance of partnership, capacity-building, and ongoing engagement in conflict prevention and resolution.