2016年-世界发展银行全球_Mobility_and_Pathways_to_the_Middle_Class_in_Nepal_34页_786kb

Summary of "Mobility and Pathways to the Middle Class in Nepal"

Core Content

This working paper explores economic and social mobility in Nepal, focusing on intergenerational and intra-generational mobility. It utilizes data from Nepal Living Standards Surveys (NLSS) and a 2014 nationally representative survey on social and economic mobility to analyze how individuals' living standards, education, and occupation have changed over time. The paper also incorporates subjective well-being data from Gallup to assess the perceptions of mobility and the economic security of the middle class.

Main Findings

Intergenerational Mobility

• Education: There has been significant upward mobility in education. Today, Nepalis are increasingly more likely to be better educated than their parents.
  • 61.9% of individuals over 30 years of age have experienced upward educational mobility.
  • Illiteracy has declined significantly, with overall illiteracy being a third of its level among fathers.
  • Primary school completion has more than doubled, and SLC, Intermediate, and university-level education have increased four-fold.
• Occupation: Upward mobility in occupation is less pronounced compared to education.
  • 47% of individuals remain in the same occupation as their parents.
  • 43.6% have experienced upward occupational mobility.
  • 48% of those whose fathers were farmers remain farmers, while 20% move to low-skilled off-farm wage work, 27% to self-employment, and 4% to white-collar jobs.
  • Off-farm self-employment shows the highest persistence, with 62% continuing in the same occupation.

Differences by Social Group

• Dalits and Terai caste groups have lower upward mobility odds.
• Newars, hill Brahmins, and Chhetris have the best chances of surpassing their fathers in education and occupation.
• Muslims and other minority groups show lower mobility, but due to small sample sizes, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Urban vs. Rural Mobility

• Upward mobility in education is higher for individuals who migrate from rural to urban areas.
• Upward mobility in occupation is significantly higher for those who move from rural to urban areas, with a 28 percentage point increase in the probability of upward mobility.

Vulnerability and Middle Class

• Poverty churning is significant: for every two people who escape poverty, one slides back.
• 45% of the population is vulnerable to falling back into poverty.
• The middle class—defined as those with low likelihood of falling back into poverty—has increased steadily, reaching 22% in 2010–11.
• Despite this growth, a majority of the middle class still reports fundamental economic insecurity.

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • Three rounds of Nepal Living Standards Surveys (NLSS).
  • A 2014 nationally representative survey on social and economic mobility.
  • Gallup data for subjective well-being and perceptions of economic security.

• Methodology:

  • Uses synthetic panel techniques to analyze intra-generational mobility due to the high attrition in traditional panel data.
  • Defines upward mobility in education and occupation based on category-based comparisons.
  • Altham statistic is mentioned as a measure of mobility, but the paper instead uses a dichotomous variable to capture upward and downward mobility.

• Challenges:

  • The presence of a large vulnerable population and a nascent middle class poses challenges to sustaining poverty reduction.
  • Structural inequalities, including the caste system, continue to limit opportunities for certain groups.
  • Inequality of opportunity is a key issue, especially in the context of education and occupation.

Conclusion

The paper highlights that Nepal has made progress in educational mobility, but occupational mobility remains limited. Younger generations show higher upward mobility, particularly when moving from rural to urban areas. However, significant inequality persists, and economic insecurity remains widespread even among the middle class. The findings underscore the need for targeted policies to address systemic barriers and enhance opportunities for marginalized groups to achieve true social and economic mobility.