战略与国际研究中心-CSIS-Laos-Trip-Report_3页_200kb

CSIS LAOS TRIP REPORT Summary

Core Content

Murray Hiebert, deputy director and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), conducted a trip to Vientiane, Laos, in mid-October 2012, to examine recent economic and political developments in the country. The report outlines key observations and insights on Laos's accession to the WTO, U.S.-Laos relations, China's growing influence, and improved relations with Thailand.

Key Findings

WTO Accession and Legal Development

• WTO Accession: Laos completed the conditions to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) on October 26, 2012, 15 years after first applying. This is seen as a significant step toward integrating into the global economy.
• Economic Impact: While U.S. companies are not as enthusiastic about the accession as they were with Vietnam's, the WTO membership is expected to help Laos develop a modern legal system and promote the rule of law.
• USAID Role: The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is supporting Laos in drafting necessary laws and regulations for WTO accession.

U.S. Company Interest and Trade

• Growing Interest: Despite Laos's smaller economy compared to Vietnam, there is an uptick in U.S. company interest due to recent economic growth. This includes small and medium-sized firms in sectors like services, soft drinks, cars, and mining.
• Notable U.S. Firms: RMA Lao, which sells Land Rovers and Japanese construction equipment, is the largest U.S. firm operating in Laos. A Thai-based AmCham affiliate has also opened a branch in Vientiane.
• Trade Figures: Lao-U.S. two-way trade reached $85 million in 2011, with U.S. exports at $26 million.
• Challenges: Some U.S. investments, such as the gaming firm Savan Vegas, have faced issues, including disputes over business control.

Economic Growth and Development

• Economic Momentum: The Lao economy has been growing at around 7.5 to 8 percent annually for the past few years.
• Infrastructure and Tourism: There is a noticeable increase in cars, construction, hotels, and shopping malls in Vientiane, along with more tourists.
• ASEM Preparation: In preparation for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in November, China built a convention center and 50 villas in Vientiane.
• Economic Sectors: Hydropower sales to Thailand, extractive industries (especially copper and gold), and tourism are the main sources of revenue for Laos.

Political and Social Developments

• National Assembly: The National Assembly has become more politically active, with lawmakers questioning ministers and providing oversight on WTO accession.
• Religious Freedom: U.S. officials note improvements in the treatment of religious minorities, although harassment of Christians in remote areas by provincial officials continues.
• Land Issues: Citizens have raised concerns about land grabbing by local officials and investors, leading to the establishment of a phone-in line by the National Assembly.

U.S.-Lao Relations

• Improved Relations: U.S.-Laos relations are at their best in decades, with Secretary Hillary Clinton's visit in July marking a significant milestone.
• Military and Historical Cooperation: The two countries have exchanged military attachés, and Lao officials no longer accuse the U.S. of supporting antigovernment forces through Thailand.
• War Remnants: Cooperation continues in the search for missing U.S. servicemen, and U.S. Congress increased funding for unexploded ordnance clearance to $9 million in FY2012 and recommended $10 million for FY2013.

China's Influence

• Rivalry with Vietnam: China is increasingly competing with Vietnam for influence in Laos, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors.
• Mining Concessions: Laos has frozen new mining licenses, with concerns that China is acquiring too many concessions.
• Agricultural Projects: China has large land concessions in the north for rubber, sugarcane, and cassava, while Vietnamese companies operate in the south.
• High-Speed Train Project: China withdrew from a $7 billion high-speed train project due to concerns about economic viability without more land concessions. The Lao government has decided to continue the project with a loan from China's Export-Import Bank.

Relations with Thailand

• Improved Bilateral Relations: Thailand and Laos have significantly improved their relations, with no military clashes in the past decade.
• Hmong Refugees: Thailand returned the last of the Hmong refugees, resolving a long-standing issue. The international community has observed fair treatment of the returned Hmong.
• Investment in Hydropower: Thailand's largest investments in Laos are in hydropower dams that supply energy to the Thai electricity grid.

Conclusion

The report highlights Laos's progress in economic integration, political reforms, and improved relations with both the U.S. and Thailand, while noting the growing influence of China and ongoing challenges in infrastructure and social sectors.