2015年-世界发展银行全球_Poverty_and_Social_impact_Analysis___Strengthening_Safety_Nets_in_Djibouti_67页_692kb

报告摘要

Summary of Poverty and Social Impact Analysis: Strengthening Safety Nets in Djibouti

Core Content

This report, titled Strengthening Safety Nets in Djibouti, is part of a broader initiative to analyze the impact of energy tax reform and the role of social safety nets in Djibouti. It evaluates the current nature of tax exemptions, their effects on household welfare, and the potential consequences of reforming these policies. The analysis also examines the effectiveness of existing social safety nets and recommends ways to enhance their impact on poverty reduction.

Main Findings

1. Current Nature of Tax Exemptions

Djibouti has implemented universal tax exemptions on essential food items (flour, rice, oil, sugar, and milk) and discretionary price adjustments on certain energy products (super, kerosene, and diesel).
The government's Department of Customs and Excise adjusts fuel prices monthly to manage international price fluctuations.
The discretionary tax element is primarily used for private consumers, while other exempt groups (military, embassies) retain their privileges.
Fuel prices would increase by around 13% for diesel and decrease slightly for gasoline and kerosene if the discretionary tax were removed.
Crude oil prices fell significantly in early 2015, reducing the impact of removing the discretionary tax on consumer prices.

2. Impact of Tax Exemptions on Household Welfare

Fuel subsidies disproportionately benefit the richest quintile, with the poorest households spending less than 2% of their income on subsidized fuel.
Food subsidies are more evenly distributed, with the poorest households spending 19% of their total expenses on tax-exempt food products.
Public transport is used more by the richer quintiles, with 60% of the richest using it, compared to only 12% of the poorest.
School transport is also heavily used by the richer, with the poorest spending less than 2% of their expenses on it.

3. Winners and Losers of the Reform

Abandoning the discretionary tax on fuel products would lead to a reduction in inequality, but not necessarily in poverty.
The richest 20% would experience the highest loss in well-being (DF 1,836 per capita), while the poorest 20% would lose less than DF 80 per capita.
The middle class would also face a significant reduction in well-being, around 0.12%.
Public transport price increases would have a moderate impact on poverty, while school transport price increases would have a more severe impact.

4. Current Role of Social Safety Nets

Social safety nets in Djibouti include food rations, cash transfers, health care compensation, pensions, and private transfers (remittances).
Food rations are the most effectively targeted program, benefiting over half of the poorest households.
Tax exemptions on food and fuel are regressive, as they primarily benefit urban and non-poor populations.
Pensions and health care compensation are received mainly by non-poor beneficiaries.
Private transfers are the most efficient vehicle for welfare, but only 21% of households receive them.

5. Effectiveness of Social Safety Nets

Coverage of social safety net programs is generally low, with only 15% of food subsidies and less than 3% of fuel subsidies reaching rural areas.
Targeting accuracy is also low, with most benefits going to non-poor households.
Generosity of the programs is very low, with only two programs (pensions and private transfers) having a noticeable impact on consumption levels.
The poorest quintile receives the highest share of transfers, but the value of these transfers is insufficient to significantly reduce poverty.

6. Impact of Reform on Poverty

Removing fuel tax exemptions would not significantly impact poverty, but would reduce inequality by 0.12 percentage points.
Consumer taxes on basic food items would have a more significant impact on poverty, as the poorest spend a higher proportion of their income on these items.
The poorest 20% would experience a well-being loss of DF 500 (or 1.06% of household spending) if food tax exemptions were removed.
Government revenue would increase by DF 408.6 million (or 0.16% of GDP) from the removal of fuel subsidies, with 96% of the gain coming from the richest households.
The impact on poverty would be negligible if the savings from fuel subsidies were not rechanneled to the poor.

Key Recommendations

Reform energy tax policies to be pro-poor, with the removal of tax exemptions on fuel products not affecting poverty significantly but reducing inequality.
Reinvest savings from tax reforms into social safety nets to better target the poor and vulnerable.
Develop a social registry to improve the equity and inclusiveness of social programs.
Strengthen targeting accuracy and generosity of social safety nets to better address poverty and inequality.
Consider introducing consumer taxes on basic food items, as they would have a more significant impact on poverty than fuel subsidies.

Conclusion

The report highlights the ineffectiveness of current untargeted subsidies in addressing poverty and the regressive nature of energy and food tax exemptions. It emphasizes the need for targeted social safety nets and reform of the tax system to ensure that poverty reduction is prioritized. The analysis also underscores the importance of data collection and policy coordination between the World Bank, IMF, and Djibouti authorities to design equitable and effective social protection mechanisms.