2017年-OPEC公报_OB08_092017_96页_13mb

OPEC Bulletin Summary

Core Content

The OPEC Bulletin provides an overview of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting held in St Petersburg, Russia, on July 24, 2017, as part of the Declaration of Cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations. The meeting emphasized the progress made in stabilizing the global oil market, the importance of continued cooperation, and the need for patience in achieving long-term market balance.

Main Points

• Market Rebalancing: The JMMC highlighted that the oil market is making steady progress towards rebalancing, driven by the production adjustment agreement signed in late 2016 and renewed in May 2017.

• Inventory Trends: OECD commercial oil stocks have been declining since the second quarter of 2017, with a total drop of close to 9m b compared to the seasonal average. As of July 2017, OECD stocks were 195m b above the five-year average, down from 340m b at the beginning of the year.

• US Inventory Drawdown: The United States has been a key player in the inventory drawdown, with nine consecutive weeks of crude oil stock draws in July and August 2017, totaling over 51m b, although a build of 4.5m b occurred in the final week of August due to refinery outages following Hurricane Harvey.

• Floating Storage: Floating storage has also been declining, with over 30m b of crude oil removed from storage since the start of the year.

• Conformity Levels: The participating countries achieved high conformity levels of 98% in June and 94% in July, consistent with the first six months of 2017. This was a key factor in the market's stabilization.

• Supply Growth Moderation: The JMMC noted that new oil projects had seen lower investment decisions, which could moderate future supply growth. This is particularly true for shale oil projects in the US, which are facing rising costs, declining well productivity, and constrained capital access.

• Demand Growth: Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2m b/d in the second half of 2017, with the US, China, and India leading the way. This demand growth is anticipated to further reduce inventories.

• Future Outlook: The JMMC expressed confidence in the continued progress and recommended keeping the extension of the Declaration of Cooperation beyond the first quarter of 2018 as an option, should further action be needed.

• Challenges Ahead: Despite progress, the JMMC acknowledged that some countries are still lagging in conformity, and export data needs to be reconciled with production data to ensure accurate monitoring.

• Commitment to Cooperation: The Chairman of the JMMC, Issam A Almarzooq, emphasized the unprecedented cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members, and called for continued focus and discipline to achieve the common goal of market stability.

Key Information

• The Declaration of Cooperation was signed in December 2016, involving 13 OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries, totaling 24 nations.

• The JMMC is co-chaired by OPEC's Kuwait and non-OPEC's Russia.

• OPEC's Secretary General, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, and other ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries attended the meeting.

• The Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which met in St Petersburg on July 22, provided the implementation assessment and market report for the JMMC meeting.

Conclusions

• The oil market is moving in the right direction towards the objectives of the Declaration of Cooperation.

• Patience and perseverance are still required to ensure that the market rebalancing is achieved.

• The JMMC is committed to monitoring conformity levels and making further recommendations if needed.

• The success of the agreement has been due to strong cooperation and voluntary production adjustments by the participating countries.