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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | DAILY - 29 March 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily strategy update from BNP Paribas on Emerging Markets (EM) currencies and equities, covering key events and market outlooks for various regions including CEEMEA, Asia, and Latin America (Latam).

Key Market Developments

South Africa

SARB Policy Rate Cut: The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.50%, in line with expectations.
Rate Decision Split: The decision was split 4-3, indicating some internal debate.
Inflation Forecasts: The SARB reduced 2019 and 2020 inflation forecasts, but hawkish comments were made.
Rate Hike Outlook: The SARB is expected to hike rates once by the end of 2019.
Rand Depreciation: The rand depreciated about 1% following the rate cut and comments about its overvaluation.
ZAR Local Rates: The depreciation is expected to be limited due to a positive net international investment position and potential local asset purchases on USDZAR spikes.

Czech Republic

CNB Policy Meeting: The Czech National Bank (CNB) held its policy meeting today.
Rate Hike Outlook: The CNB is unlikely to hike rates until 2019, as the ECB is expected to tighten policy.
EURCZK Target: The CNB aims to stabilize the EURCZK exchange rate at around 24.50 by the end of the year.
Current FX Rate: The current average Q2 forecast is 24.9, lower than the current level of 25.5.

Egypt

Central Bank Rate Cut: The Egyptian Central Bank is expected to cut key policy rates by another 100bps, following a similar cut in February.
Inflation Decline: Inflation has dropped from 34.2% y/y in July 2017 to 14.2% in February 2018.
Rate Cut Rationale: The central bank is likely to cut rates to mitigate the impact of rising real interest rates on economic activity.

Poland

MPC Minutes: Minutes from Poland's March Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be released on Thursday.
Dovish Comments: Post-decision comments were more dovish than expected, suggesting the possibility of a rate cut.

Hungary

MNB IRS Tender: The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) will hold another IRS tender today.
Currency Dynamics: The steepening of the HUF curve and increase in HUF-EUR spread have not led to a significant strengthening of the currency.
Swap Rates: The MNB does not appear to be concerned about the elevated Hungarian swap rates compared to last year.

Latam Outlook

Brazil

FEER Model Update: The Q2 2018 FEER model update suggests the Brazilian real (BRL) has the highest margin for structural appreciation.
FX Rate Target: The nominal FX rate that would make the Brazilian current account converge to long-term sustainable levels is approximately 3.00.

Argentina

BCRA Policy: The Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) kept rates on hold, but hikes remain an option.

Argentina FX Outlook

ARS Depreciation: The model suggests that the Argentine peso (ARS) should depreciate close to 22.50.

Contacts and Legal Information

EM Strategy Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone Number
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8746
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategy	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 1872
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research	BNP Paribas London Branch	-
Gustavo Mendonca	FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3445

Production and Editorial

Name	Location	Legal Entity	Phone Number
Barbara Consuelo	London	BNP Paribas London branch	+44 20 7595 8486
Amanda Grantham-Hill	London	BNP Paribas London branch	+44 20 7595 4107
Anna McLaughlin	London	BNP Paribas London branch	+44 20 7595 3754
Varghese Joseph	New York	BNP Paribas Securities Corp (New York)	+1 212 841 3698

Legal Notice

This document is non-independent research for the UK FCA and is a marketing communication under MiFID II.
It is not investment research and is not subject to independence requirements.
BNPP may have financial interests in the issuers or persons mentioned, including positions in their securities or derivatives.
The document may contain simulated performance data and is for illustrative purposes only.
No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
The document is intended for professional clients and relevant persons only.
It may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
BNPP may act as a market maker, advisor, or underwriter for the discussed securities or derivatives.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on the document.
The document does not constitute an offer to sell or issue securities, nor is it a prospectus.

US Disclosures

Options: Complex instruments with high risk, suitable only for sophisticated investors.
ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency, geopolitical, credit, and interest rate risks.
Convertibles and Restricted Securities: Some may not be registered under US securities laws and are restricted securities.
Distribution: Limited to institutional investors or major U.S. institutional investors.
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UK Disclosures

This document is communicated by BNPP London Branch.
BNPP London Branch is lead supervised by ECB and ACPR, and subject to limited regulation by FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority.
Incorporated in France with Limited Liability; registered office in Paris.