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The EU's Plan B for Ukraine: A Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the European Union's concerns regarding Ukraine's political and social trajectory in 2012, particularly in the wake of the failed Association Agreement and the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. It highlights the EU's growing frustration with Ukraine's leadership, the influence of the Yanukovych family (the "Family"), and the apathy of the Ukrainian public. The author, Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, suggests that the EU needs to develop a more strategic and defined policy, referred to as "Plan B," to address the deteriorating relationship with Ukraine.

Ukraine's Three Biggest Problems

• The Yanukovych Family's Influence: The family has consolidated power, with the president's son, Oleksandr Yanukovych, seeing his wealth increase significantly. The Family's control extends to key government positions, including the Ministry of Interior, Tax Administration, and Central Bank.
• Imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko: Tymoshenko's trial and imprisonment are seen as a political move to suppress opposition. Her release and rehabilitation are unlikely in the near future, and her chances of receiving medical treatment abroad are slim.
• Public Apathy: Ukrainians show little interest in politics, distrust politicians, and prioritize their own survival over political engagement. This lack of activism undermines efforts to push for democratic reforms.

Saved by the Parliamentary Elections?

• Election Significance: The October 2012 parliamentary elections are expected to be a pivotal moment for Ukraine's political landscape.
• Uncertainty and Manipulation: The elections may not lead to significant change, as the ruling Party of Regions is focused on securing a constitutional majority. There are concerns about electoral manipulation and the limited number of parliamentary seats available.
• Opposition Challenges: Opposition parties are struggling to build alliances and secure public support. The new electoral law, which reintroduces a mixed system, raises concerns about fairness and transparency.
• Low Turnout and Personal Votes: Voter turnout is expected to be low, with people voting based on personal preferences rather than party platforms.

The EU Caught Off Guard

• EU's Eastern Neighbors Strategy: The EU aimed to build stable, well-governed neighbors in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine.
• Assumptions About Ukraine: The EU assumed that Ukraine's leadership and population shared European values and that the country was committed to integration.
• Reactions to Tymoshenko's Imprisonment: The EU's response to the Tymoshenko case has been emotional and reactive, including threats to boycott the EURO 2012 championship. However, these actions have not effectively communicated the EU's stance to the Ukrainian public.
• Ukrainian Leadership's Perception: The Ukrainian leadership views the EU's actions as a threat to their authority and is resistant to pressure. They believe the EU is more interested in economic interests than in upholding democratic values.

What the EU's Policy Should Be

• Reassess Assumptions: The EU must recognize that the Yanukovych family sees imprisonment as a means of maintaining power.
• Reform Communication Strategy: The EU should clearly communicate its expectations and values to the Ukrainian public, not just the leadership.
• Target Financial Assets: Freezing the assets of the Family and oligarchs in EU countries could be an effective tool to pressure the regime.
• Define Clear Conditions and Timelines: The EU should set specific, measurable conditions for reforms and provide a clear timeline for Ukraine to meet them.
• Consider Alternative Strategies: If Plan B fails, the EU may need to engage with Russia or reconsider its support for Ukraine, as the country may not be willing to reform.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for the EU to move beyond reactive measures and develop a more coherent, strategic approach to Ukraine. It suggests that the EU must redefine its relationship with Ukraine, set clear expectations, and be prepared to take more decisive action if necessary. The long-term success of EU-Ukraine relations depends on the union's ability to communicate its values effectively and enforce its conditions with firmness.

Key Information

• Yanukovych's Power Consolidation: The president has increased his control over the judiciary and executive, with the Family holding significant influence.
• Tymoshenko's Imprisonment: Seen as a political move to suppress opposition, her release is unlikely.
• Public Apathy: Ukrainians are disengaged from politics and more concerned with personal survival.
• Election Uncertainty: The October 2012 elections may not lead to meaningful change due to manipulation and low turnout.
• EU's Response: Emotional and reactive, including threats to boycott events, but not effective in conveying a clear message.
• Need for Plan B: The EU should consider more targeted and strategic actions, such as asset freezes, to influence Ukraine's political direction.