2015年-世界发展银行全球_Fertility_Transition_in_Turkey___Who_Is_Most_at_Risk_of_Deciding_Against_Child_Arrival__38页_1mb

Summary: Fertility Transition in Turkey - Who Is Most at Risk of Deciding against Child Arrival?

Core Content

This paper explores the fertility transition in Turkey, focusing on the risk factors for women deciding against having additional children, particularly the second and third. It uses census and survey data to analyze trends in fertility and female employment, emphasizing the interplay between education, employment, and family planning in shaping fertility outcomes.

Main Findings

• Fertility Decline: Turkey has experienced a significant fertility decline over the past decades, with total fertility rates dropping from over 6 children per woman in 1960 to 2.08 in 2011. These rates are converging with the EU average but remain above it.

• Completed Fertility: Completed fertility rates in Turkey are still above the EU average, but there is a growing concern that they may fall below replacement level due to an assimilation process towards Europe. This decline is mainly driven by fewer transitions to a third birth, rather than a reduction in the desire for children.

• Education and Fertility: Fertility decline is observed across all education levels, but it is most pronounced among low-educated women. Higher-educated women have lower but stable fertility rates. The structure effect (increase in the proportion of educated women) explains about half of the fertility decline in Turkey, while the level effect (lower fertility among educated women) explains the other half.

• Female Employment and Fertility: Female employment rates in Turkey have been increasing, especially among younger cohorts and more educated women. However, they remain relatively low at around 30%, suggesting a significant untapped potential for female labor market participation.

• Child Rank and Employment: Women who are employed in the formal labor market are more likely to decide against having a third child. This is attributed to the lack of institutional childcare support, which forces women to choose between career and family. The negative impact of employment on child arrival is more significant for women with two children, especially when their partners are not in stable employment.

• Regional Differences: Fertility rates vary significantly across regions in Turkey. Istanbul and Western regions have lower fertility rates compared to Central Anatolia and Eastern regions. The South-East region has the highest completed fertility rates, while the North-West has the lowest. Internal migration, particularly from rural to urban areas and from the East to the West, is a key driver of these regional differences.

• Policy Implications: The paper highlights the need for work-life balance policies, such as institutional childcare support and parental leave, to enable women to combine employment with family life. These policies have been effective in other European countries and could help prevent further fertility decline in Turkey.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The study uses census data and cross-sectional survey data (SILC) to analyze fertility trends and employment patterns.

• Parity Progression Ratios:

  • 80% of women with one child in Turkey have a second child.
  • Only 47% of women with two children in Turkey have a third child, compared to 23% in the EU.

• Completed Fertility by Cohort:

  • For the 1960 cohort, women in the North-West had an average of 3 children, while those in the South-East had 5.5.
  • For the 1969–1974 cohort, completed fertility in Turkey is approximately 2.3, which is still above the EU average of 1.72.

• Childcare and Employment: The lack of institutional childcare support in Turkey is a major barrier for women in the formal labor market, especially those with two children. This leads to a higher risk of deciding against a third child.

• Economic and Cultural Factors: Economic development and cultural shifts in Turkey have created a hybrid family preference, where women seek to balance career and family. However, traditional gender roles and social stigma still hinder full participation in the labor market.

• Policy Recommendations: Work-life balance policies, such as childcare support and parental leave, are crucial for maintaining fertility levels above replacement. These policies can help couples realize their fertility intentions and reduce the negative impact of employment on childbearing decisions.

Conclusion

The fertility transition in Turkey is influenced by a combination of socioeconomic and institutional factors. While increasing education and employment rates are positive trends, the lack of supportive family policies is a key obstacle to achieving desired fertility levels. The paper emphasizes the importance of institutional childcare and parental leave in enabling women to balance work and family life, thus preventing further fertility decline and promoting gender equality and economic growth.