2008年-ECB欧洲央行_The_international_role_of_the_euro_July_2008_86页_1013kb

Summary of "The International Role of the Euro" (July 2008)

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the euro's role in international markets and third countries, focusing on the period from end-2006 to end-2007. It highlights the trends and statistical developments in the use of the euro in various financial segments, including debt markets, loan and deposit markets, foreign exchange markets, and trade. The report also discusses the euro's role in global foreign exchange reserves and its use as a parallel currency in third countries.

Main Findings

1. Euro's Role in Global Markets

• International Debt Markets:

  • The euro's share in the stock of international debt securities decreased by around 1 percentage point to 32.2% in December 2007, mainly due to a decline in the short-term segment (money market instruments).
  • The euro's share in the gross issuance of international bonds and notes increased marginally.
  • The financial turmoil in 2007 likely contributed to the decline in the euro's share in debt markets.

• International Loan and Deposit Markets:

  • The euro's share in international loan markets increased by 1.1 percentage points to 22.1% in Q4 2007.
  • The euro's share in international deposit markets decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 21.0% in Q4 2007.
  • The decline in deposit markets may be attributed to the global financial crisis, while loan markets showed resilience.

• Foreign Exchange Markets:

  • The euro's share in foreign exchange transactions remained broadly stable.
  • In the CLS system, the average share of the euro in daily settlements dropped slightly from 39.1% in 2006 to 37.8% in 2007.
  • The euro was used in about 37% of all foreign exchange transactions in April 2007, comparable to figures from three years prior.
  • The US dollar and Japanese yen saw a decline in their shares, while emerging market currencies gained.

• International Trade:

  • The euro's use in trade invoicing and settlement showed diverging trends across countries.
  • In some euro area countries, the euro's share in exports and imports continued to increase.
  • In non-euro area EU Member States and candidate countries, the euro's share in trade invoicing and settlement remained high.
  • The euro's role in trade was most pronounced in countries with close geographical and institutional ties to the euro area.

2. Euro in Third Countries

• Official Use:

  • The euro is used in the exchange rate policies of third countries, particularly those with close ties to the EU.
  • In countries like Romania and Slovakia, the euro's share in foreign exchange reserves increased, partly due to valuation effects and ERM II membership.
  • In some new EU Member States, the euro's share in foreign exchange reserves declined.

• Private Use:

  • The euro is used as a parallel currency in third countries, especially in cash holdings and bank deposits.
  • The stock of euro banknotes outside the euro area increased by around 1.5 percentage points in the euro's share of total currency in circulation.
  • By end-2007, the euro banknotes held outside the euro area were estimated to be at the upper end of a range of 10% to 20% of total currency in circulation.

3. Special Focus: Euro in Global Foreign Exchange Reserves

• The euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves was 26.5% in Q4 2007, down slightly from 27.2% in Q4 2006.
• The decline, when measured at constant exchange rates, was around 1.5 percentage points, suggesting that the increase was largely due to valuation effects.
• The euro's role in reserves is influenced by both portfolio and transaction motives, with a growing emphasis on portfolio diversification.
• The euro's share in reserves is highest in non-euro area EU Member States and candidate countries, reflecting their integration with the euro area.
• The euro's use in sovereign wealth funds is explored, with the suggestion that market capitalisation-based allocations may not significantly increase capital inflows to the euro area.

4. Key Drivers of the Euro's International Use

• Geographical and Institutional Proximity:

  • Countries with close ties to the euro area (e.g., EU Member States and candidate countries) tend to use the euro more extensively in their financial activities.
  • The euro's role as an anchor currency is most prominent in countries with exchange rate regimes linked to the euro.

• Valuation and Composition Effects:

  • Exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect the reported share of the euro in foreign exchange reserves.
  • Composition effects arise from changes in the structure of market segments, such as the relative growth of different currency-denominated assets.

• Market Integration and Liquidity:

  • The euro's role in trade and financial markets is supported by the integration of the euro area and its improved liquidity.
  • However, in derivatives markets, the euro's use may be affected by the integration of government bond markets, which has reduced the need for derivatives.

Key Information

• Statistical Highlights:

  • The euro's share in international debt securities (narrow measure) was 32.2% in Q4 2007.
  • The euro's share in international loan markets was 22.1%, and in deposit markets 21.0%.
  • The euro's share in foreign exchange transactions was around 37% in April 2007.
  • The euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves was 26.5% in Q4 2007.
  • Cumulative net shipments of euro banknotes to destinations outside the euro area reached €71.1 billion by end-2007.

• Data Sources:

  • The ECB uses data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the IMF, and national central banks.
  • The report includes a statistical annex with detailed data on various market segments.

Conclusion

The euro's international role has shown diverging trends across different market segments. While its share in some markets declined, it increased in others, particularly in foreign exchange reserves and trade invoicing. The report underscores the importance of statistical adjustments (valuation and composition effects) in understanding these trends. The euro remains a significant currency in global markets, especially in regions with strong economic and institutional links to the European Union. The ECB continues to monitor and report on the euro's international role, providing insights into its usage and underlying drivers.