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Futures Market Analysis and Outlook for April 2025

Disclaimer:
This report provides market analysis and forecasts for April 2025 commodities and financial futures, based on technical and fundamental analysis. It is intended for qualified investors and should not be construed as investment advice. All investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Key Findings and Forecasts

Stock Index Futures

• CSI 300 (IF2506):
  Expected to exhibit strong resistance against key levels at 3729 and 3748, with support at 3640 and 3614. Over the near term, the focus is on narrow-range oscillation.

• Shanghai Composite Index (IH2506):
  Likely to oscillate within a weak range, testing resistance at 2613 and 2633, while supported by 2568 and 2552.

• China 500 Index (IC2504):
  Forecasts higher volatility, breaching 5660-5794 resistance levels briefly but struggling to surpass 5489-5550 supports.

• China 1000 Index (IM2506):
  Likely to challenge stronger resistance at 5793-5848 but face robust support at 5580-5545.

Gold and Precious Metals

• Gold (AU2506):
  Expected to break new historical highs, targeting resistance at 7680-7750/kg with strong support at 7522-7573/kg. Key drivers include heightened global market uncertainty.

• Silver (AG2506):
  Mixed outlook aimed for gains amidst market normalization; resistance at 8207-8260/kg, support at 7980-7970/kg.

Commodity Futures

• Industrial Metals
  Copper (CU2505):

  • Short-term: Mixed signals between resistance at 75900-76700/kg and support at 75000-74600/kg.
  • Mid-term: Downside risk toward 70600-67000/kg if weak volatility persists.

  Aluminum (AL2506):
  Strong resistance at 20040/kg, with support clustered around 19500-19370/kg for medium-term calls.

• Energy & Agriculture
  Natural Rubber (RU2509):
  Weak oscillation expected, influenced by higher-than-normal inventories—resistance at 15580/kg, support at 14500-14680/kg.

  Crude Oil (SC2505):

  • Aimed for lower volatility, with underlying support near 443-458/bbl.
  • But broader tariff risks persist, keeping momentum mixed.

Macro Trends and Trade Risks

• U.S.-China Tariff Escalation: Continued high tariffs escalate market uncertainty, with industry-wide impacts on trade balances.
• Dollar Fluctuations: Persistently higher inflation rates amplify global monetary policy shifts.
• Market Volatility: Expect heightened swings in equity and bond markets driven by trade tensions and currency movements.

Supporting Analysis

Analytical approaches predominantly leverage Golden Ratio zones (Fibonacci retracement levels) for identifying price turning points, alongside conventional support/resistance thresholds. Sharpened economic uncertainties further complicate near-term moves, requiring continuous monitoring for revised forecasts.

Disclaimer:
This report is compiled based on internal research resources and third-party data provided by Wind. Views herein are time-sensitive and subject to change, largely influenced by evolving market conditions, including but not limited to tariff adjustments, interest rate developments, and economic data releases.

Further Information:
Access additional technical analysis graphs and a full contact list via the provided footer links.

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