荷兰海牙战略研究中心-机器人和自治系统的实施：现在就是未来，为2045年做准备（英文）-2021.2-26页_1mb

HCSS Security Summary: The Implementation of Robotic and Autonomous Systems

Introduction

This paper by HCSS explores the future implementation of Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) in a military context, with a focus on the period up to 2045. It aims to inspire thinking and reflection on the future use of RAS, provide recommendations for 2035 aligned with the 'Operationeel Kader voor het Landoptreden' and 'Defensievisie 2035', and outline the necessary steps for integrating RAS into the armed forces. The rationale for looking into the future includes the early addressing of significant questions and the recognition of the potential for rapid technological development.

Methodology

The research was conducted over a two-year period, involving the development of various papers on operational applications, ethical dilemmas, legal aspects, and concept development. A serious game was used to gather expert insights and validate the analysis. The methodology includes:

1. Constructing a plausible future scenario for 2045.
2. Developing a future RAS unit based on current research.
3. Identifying four lines of development that guide the implementation of RAS in the military.

Scenario: “2045: the era of relentless competition”

Point of Departure

Geopolitical developments and the Netherlands' support for EU missions have led to a reorganization of defense structures. Deployments are now a regular part of military operations, supported by advanced technologies like digital twins and data fusion systems. Reachback offices are integrated into operations without physical presence, and the use of RAS has become critical in ensuring operational effectiveness and security.

A Short History of Main Events

• Climate Change: Has had a more severe impact on global stability than the pandemic, leading to competition over resources and new security challenges.
• Geopolitical Developments: Continuous competition between global powers, with cooperation being 'friendly but cautious'. Unpredictable behavior from outlier states and the use of nuclear capabilities add to the complexity.
• Consequences for the EU: The EU has adopted a more comprehensive view of security, including food security, human rights, and cyber and space domains. The EUSSS42 (EU Security and Safety Strategy 2042) highlights the need for enhanced border protection and the use of RAS.

Main Missions for the EU

The EU is constantly deploying troops to secure its borders, both physical and digital. Key missions include:

• Space surveillance and deterrence
• Maritime patrol and engagement
• Air defense and deterrence
• Land observation and denial
• Cyber protection and defense

RAS is essential in supporting these missions due to the limitations of human endurance and the need for continuous operational presence.

Important Role for the Netherlands

The Netherlands has been at the forefront of RAS experimentation, particularly in the context of EU missions like OSIRIS. The country is seen as a leader in legal and ethical considerations for autonomous systems, especially regarding 'meaningful human control' and the legitimacy of the use of force. The Royal Netherlands Army is involved in the Nile Delta, where they face challenges from the Free Organization of Egyptian Identity (FOEI), supported by advanced RAS and foreign actors like the Beethoven group.

Future from the Perspective of a User

The future involves both EU and FOEI forces using RAS in complex, multi-domain operations. Key points include:

• EU-OSIRIS: Units like those led by LtCol Jack Jansen use RAS with a 1:6 soldier-to-robot ratio. These systems provide enhanced situational awareness and extended operational reach, but also raise legal and ethical concerns.
• FOEI: Their forces, led by Youri Nikolajev and Umit Sjukoev, are developing and adapting RAS for various tasks. They face challenges in balancing tactical advantages with legal and ethical implications.
• Command and Control: The integration of RAS into military command structures requires new concepts and doctrines, as well as a rethinking of traditional military hierarchies.

Lines of Development

The paper outlines four lines of development that are crucial for the implementation of RAS:

1. Development and Acquisition

• Focus on the development and procurement of RAS.
• The Netherlands has been experimenting with RAS since the late 2010s.
• COMO (Company Owned Military Operated) services are used to provide flexible and cost-effective RAS capabilities.

2. Operational Excellence

• Enhance the operational effectiveness of military units through RAS.
• RAS provide real-time situational awareness, reduce the footprint, and increase the reach of military operations.
• The use of AI and data analytics improves risk assessment and decision-making.

3. Legal and Normative Frameworks and Public Support

• Legal frameworks must evolve to address the unique challenges of RAS.
• The Netherlands plays a key role in shaping these norms, especially regarding 'meaningful human control' and the legitimacy of autonomous weapons.
• Public support is essential, as the use of RAS raises ethical and legal questions.

4. Organization and Leadership

• Military units must adapt their organizational structures to accommodate RAS.
• Leadership and command structures need to be rethought, with a focus on integrating human and machine capabilities.
• There is a need for flexible budgeting and collaboration with private sector partners.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the integration of RAS into the military will require significant changes in structure, command, and legal frameworks. While many questions remain unanswered, the research provides a foundation for further discussion and decision-making. The Netherlands, with its legal and ethical focus, is well-positioned to lead in the development of RAS policies. The future of military operations will be shaped by the continued evolution of RAS, with a balance between technological advancement and the need for human oversight and accountability.