2012年-普华永道全球_Pharma_2020_From_vision_to_decision_56页_1mb

报告摘要

From Vision to Decision: Pharma 2020 Summary

Core Content

The document "From Vision to Decision: Pharma 2020" outlines the future challenges and opportunities facing the pharmaceutical industry. It emphasizes the need for strategic decision-making between now and 2020 to capitalize on emerging opportunities and ensure the industry's long-term sustainability. The report highlights three major challenges: rising customer expectations, poor scientific productivity, and cultural sclerosis. These challenges are compounded by increasing healthcare costs and regulatory pressures, but the industry also benefits from technological advancements and growing demand for medicines.

Main Points

1. The Best of Times, the Worst of Times

The pharmaceutical industry is at a crossroads, with promising opportunities and significant challenges.
Technological advancements in genomics, data analytics, and stem cell therapies are transforming the field.
Big data is enabling more personalized and effective treatments, with the potential to shift the focus from treatment to prevention.
Global demand for medicines is rising, driven by population growth, aging demographics, and increased sedentary lifestyles.
Trade liberalization has reduced barriers to global pharmaceutical trade, contributing to industry growth.

2. The Worst of Times

Innovation is declining, and scientific productivity is flatlining, with the cost of developing new drugs continuing to rise.
Regulatory environments are becoming more stringent, with agencies like the FDA and EMA implementing stricter oversight of drug safety and pricing.
Price controls are tightening in both mature and growth markets, with governments imposing limits on mark-ups and discounts on treatments.
Healthcare costs are soaring, and payers are increasingly demanding value-based pricing and real-world evidence to justify drug costs.
Legal and ethical scrutiny is increasing, particularly in the US, where pharmaceutical companies are facing financial penalties for unethical practices.

3. The Mature Markets: Maximising the Molecule

Mature markets (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US) account for 59% of the industry's total revenues.
These markets are shifting toward value-based purchasing, where healthcare providers are paid based on the value of care, not the quantity of services.
Biologics are a key focus in the mature markets, especially for cancer and rare diseases, but they are costlier and less efficient than traditional chemical drugs.
Healthcare payers are demanding clinical and economic value from new medicines, along with real-world data to support claims.
Generic prescribing is increasing, and the patent cliff is expected to reduce revenues by $148 billion between 2012 and 2018.
The Affordable Care Act in the US is a major driver of these changes, aiming to improve access and reduce costs, with significant implications for pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement.

Key Decisions for Pharma Companies

Maximizing the value of existing and new medicines.
Developing business models for growth markets.
Improving scientific productivity through better R&D strategies.
Reinvigorating corporate culture to adapt to new business realities.
Navigating regulatory and pricing changes in mature markets.
Proving the value of new therapies through real-world data and outcomes-based contracts.

Opportunities and Challenges in Growth Markets

Growth markets (e.g., China, Brazil, India) are experiencing rapid expansion in healthcare access and are becoming more competitive.
These markets are more difficult to navigate due to complex regulatory environments and evolving patient expectations.
Healthcare reforms are underway in many growth economies, improving access and reducing costs, but also increasing scrutiny of drug pricing and quality.

Conclusion

The pharmaceutical industry is at a pivotal moment. While it has the tools and knowledge to make significant advances, it must adapt to new economic, regulatory, and ethical standards.
Strategic decisions in R&D, pricing, and market access will determine whether the industry can thrive by 2020.
Corporate culture and innovation are crucial to overcoming the challenges and seizing the opportunities ahead.

Key Figures and Data

Genomics has advanced significantly, with the cost of sequencing a human genome dropping from $95 million in 2001 to $1,000 today.
Breast cancer survival rates have increased from 63% in the 1960s to 90%, thanks to better understanding and targeted therapies.
Global pharmaceutical sales are projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2020.
Healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP are rising in all income brackets, with the most significant increase in mature markets.
The patent cliff is expected to reduce Big Pharma's earnings by $148 billion between 2012 and 2018.
US healthcare reform includes provisions that will reduce branded medicine revenues by $112 billion over the next decade.