2009年-世界发展银行全球_Changes_in_End-User_Petroleum_Product_Prices___A_Comparison_of_48_Countries_49页_3mb

Summary of "Changes in End-User Petroleum Product Prices"

Core Content

This report by Masami Kojima from the World Bank Group's Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division examines the pass-through of international petroleum product price increases to retail prices in 48 developing countries and compares them with industrial countries. It analyzes the period from January 2004 to August 2008, focusing on gasoline and diesel prices and how they were affected by global oil price trends and domestic policy decisions.

Main Points

• Global Price Trends:

  • World gasoline prices increased from $0.26 per liter in January 2004 to $0.73 per liter in August 2008, a rise of 98%.
  • Diesel prices rose from $0.25 per liter in January 2004 to $0.84 per liter in August 2008, a 100% increase.

• Pass-Through Coefficients:

  • The pass-through coefficient measures the ratio of the increase in domestic retail prices to the increase in international prices, both in local currency.
  • For gasoline, the average pass-through coefficient was 2.3 for the full period (2004–2008), 2.4 for developing countries, and 2.9 for oil-importing developing countries.
  • For diesel, the average was 1.3, with 1.7 for oil-importing developing countries and 0.7 for oil-exporting countries.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa consistently had the highest pass-through coefficients for both fuels.

• Regional Variations:

  • In August 2008, retail gasoline prices in industrial countries were about 50% higher than in developing countries.
  • Oil-importing developing countries had twice the prices of oil-exporting countries.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest retail prices for gasoline and diesel, influenced by landlocked geography, small markets, inadequate infrastructure, and high taxation.
  • Kerosene prices were lower than diesel in two-thirds of the countries.
  • LPG prices in developing countries were significantly lower than international prices, indicating subsidization by governments.

• Policy Impacts:

  • Some developing countries set price ceilings or used formulas to adjust prices according to international trends.
  • Ad hoc pricing was common in countries like Bangladesh, China, and Venezuela, often leading to subsidies and fiscal costs.
  • Currency appreciation in some developing countries helped offset oil price increases, while currency depreciation made the impact worse.

• Pass-Through Dynamics:

  • Pass-through coefficients were higher in countries with high initial price levels and currency appreciation.
  • They decreased with increasing per capita income.
  • In 2004–2007, a 1% increase in GDP per capita led to a 0.4–0.5 percentage point decrease in pass-through coefficients.
  • Full pass-through (coefficients > 1) was not always observed, and partial pass-through could lead to fiscal strain and market inefficiencies.

• Exchange Rate Effects:

  • Exchange rate appreciation made it easier for governments to adjust prices to international levels.
  • Exchange rate fluctuations could cause large differences in pass-through coefficients when calculated in local currency versus U.S. dollars.
  • In the sample, the ratio of local currency to U.S. dollar pass-through coefficients ranged from -0.39 to 3.1.

• Implications:

  • Inadequate pass-through can result in fiscal costs from subsidies or tax reductions.
  • It may also lead to increased demand and oil price volatility.
  • Government intervention in pricing can distort market signals and affect the efficiency of the oil sector.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Prices for gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and LPG were collected from 48 developing countries and 8 OECD countries.
• Methodology:
  • Pass-through coefficients were calculated using international prices from four global refining centers: northwest Europe, the Arab Gulf, Singapore, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
  • The study divided the time period into two subperiods: 2004–2007 and 2007–2008, and analyzed the full period (2004–2008).
• Findings:
  • Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest pass-through coefficients across all time intervals.
  • Industrial countries had higher retail prices than developing countries, even though their pass-through coefficients were generally lower.
  • Oil-importing developing countries had higher retail prices than oil-exporting ones.
  • Kerosene-to-diesel price ratios were often below 1, leading to illegal substitution of kerosene for diesel.

Conclusion

The study highlights the complex relationship between international oil prices, domestic retail prices, and government policy in developing countries. It underscores the importance of transparent pricing mechanisms and the economic and fiscal consequences of price controls and subsidies. The results suggest that pass-through is not uniform and is influenced by currency movements, market size, and economic policies. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers aiming to manage fuel price volatility and resource allocation effectively.