2012年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan___Agricultural_Insurance_Feasibility_Study_Volume_1_Main_Report_214页_3mb

报告摘要

Agricultural Insurance Feasibility Study in Kazakhstan

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive feasibility study on agricultural insurance in Kazakhstan, conducted by the World Bank in partnership with the Second Agricultural Post Privatization Assistance Project (APPAP II). The study evaluates the current compulsory crop insurance scheme, assesses the risks associated with agricultural production, and explores opportunities for new insurance products and strategies to improve the system.

Main Objectives

To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the current compulsory crop insurance scheme in Kazakhstan.
To identify challenges and propose strategies for transitioning the scheme to a more market-based system.
To assess the potential for introducing new crop insurance products that could complement or replace the existing policy.
To tailor crop insurance to the needs of small farmers, particularly in South Kazakhstan.
To analyze the fiscal implications of various insurance products on the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan (GRK) budget.

Key Findings

Agricultural Importance in Kazakhstan

Agriculture is a crucial socioeconomic sector, employing 22% of the labor force and contributing 5.92% to GDP.
The country is a major global producer and exporter of grains, especially spring wheat.
Farming areas cover over 220 million hectares, with spring wheat being the most significant grain crop, grown in northern and central regions using low-cost production systems.

Risk Assessment

Spring wheat production is highly vulnerable to climatic and biological risks, with drought being the most pervasive.
The study estimates that, on average, 14.71% of the total value of spring wheat is lost annually due to drought and other perils, valued at KZT 66.5 billion (US$443 million).
In 1998, an extreme drought caused losses of up to 7 million metric tons, equivalent to 42% of expected wheat production.
The most severe drought losses were recorded in 2008 and 2010.

Current Crop Insurance Scheme

Introduced in 2005 under the Law on Compulsory Crop Insurance, the scheme is based on a public-private partnership (PPP).
It provides a loss of investment costs (LIC) insurance policy covering production costs for strategic crops.
The GRK subsidizes 50% of all claims through the Fund for Financial Support for Agriculture (FFSA).
Despite high uptake (74% of eligible cropped area from 2005–2010), the scheme has faced significant operational and financial challenges.
Only three private insurance companies currently support the scheme, and it is not reinsured against catastrophic losses.

Challenges Identified

Technical Challenges

The current rating methodology for LIC premiums is outdated and does not account for risk variations at the rayon or individual farmer level.
Premiums are fixed by law and last adjusted in 2008, requiring an actuarial review.
Indemnity valuation is based on harvest prices rather than pre-agreed values, making it difficult to calculate liabilities accurately.

Operational Challenges

The compulsory nature of the scheme prevents proper risk selection and control.
Moral hazard is a concern as farmers may alter their behavior based on the expectation of insurance payouts.
Inspections of farms are not conducted by private insurance companies, leading to potential inaccuracies in risk assessment.
Loss adjustment is a costly and time-consuming process involving multiple parties, with limited transparency.

Institutional Challenges

The scheme is a PPP, with private insurers underwriting and the government providing financial support.
Private insurance companies are subject to stricter regulations, including minimum capital requirements and solvency controls.
Farmer mutual associations are not equally regulated and face financial risks due to inadequate premium collection.

Key Recommendations

Strategy for Strengthening the Scheme

Phase 1: Return the compulsory crop insurance scheme to profitability and financial stability.
Phase 2: Transition toward a market-based system, increasing the role of private insurers.
Phase 3: Transform the scheme into a fully commercial system supported by both the public sector and international reinsurers.

New Crop Insurance Products

Named-Peril Crop Insurance: Covers specific perils such as hailstorms, frost, pests, and diseases.
Area-Yield Index Insurance (AYII): Based on regional yield data, providing coverage for production losses.
Weather Index Insurance (WII): Uses weather data to trigger payouts, offering a more transparent and efficient alternative.
Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI): Offers broader coverage for individual farmers.

Tailoring for Small Farmers

The study emphasizes the need to develop insurance products suitable for small and resource-poor farmers in South Kazakhstan.
A detailed analysis of Tole-bi rayon in SKO was conducted to understand the specific needs and challenges of small-scale producers.
There is a need to segment farmers and design products that cater to their financial and operational constraints.

Fiscal Implications

The study assesses the financial impact of various insurance products on the GRK budget.
It highlights the importance of aligning insurance products with fiscal sustainability to ensure long-term viability.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while the current compulsory crop insurance scheme has high uptake, it is not financially sustainable and requires significant reforms. A phased transition to a market-based system, combined with the introduction of new insurance products and improved regulatory frameworks, is essential to ensure the long-term viability and effectiveness of agricultural insurance in Kazakhstan.

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