2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Resource_Dependence_and_Fiscal_Effort_in_Sub

报告摘要

Summary of "Resource Dependence and Fiscal Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Core Content

This paper investigates the relationship between resource dependence and fiscal effort in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, focusing on how increased resource revenue affects taxation of nonresource income and consumption. The study uses data from 2000 to 2011 for 42 SSA countries (excluding South Sudan) and analyzes the determinants of nonresource tax revenue.

Main Findings

Resource Revenue and Nonresource Revenue:
There is a negative and significant correlation between resource revenue and nonresource tax revenue. Countries with higher resource revenue tend to have lower nonresource tax revenue, suggesting a trade-off in fiscal effort.
Statutory Tax Rates:
Statutory tax rates (VAT, corporate, and income taxes) are not significantly different between resource and nonresource countries. This implies that tax evasion and large exemptions, rather than tax policy, may be the main factors behind the lower nonresource revenue in resource-rich countries.
Corruption and Institutions:
The lower take-up of nonresource taxes in resource-rich countries is correlated with higher levels of corruption, indicating that weaker institutions contribute to reduced tax effort. The corruption index is significantly positive in all regression specifications, and its inclusion reduces the effect of statutory tax rates on nonresource revenue.
Fiscal Dependency:
Countries that are fiscally dependent on natural resources (i.e., where resource revenue exceeds 20% of total budgetary revenue) show a weaker nonresource revenue effort compared to other countries. The interaction term in the regression suggests that less resource-dependent countries reduce their fiscal effort more when resource revenue increases, but the effect is weaker due to the small resource revenue ratio in these countries.
Exchange Rate and Tax Effort:
The real effective exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on nonresource revenue, even when resource revenue is controlled for. This may be due to terms of trade effects from previous years or immediate impacts from commodity price fluctuations.

Key Information

Data Sources:
- IMF African Department Database (2000–2011)
- ICRG Corruption Index
- World Bank Institutional Quality Indices
Methodology:
- Panel regression analysis to estimate the determinants of nonresource revenue
- Use of lagged variables as instruments to control for endogeneity
- Inclusion of interaction terms to differentiate between fiscally dependent and non-dependent resource countries
Fiscally Dependent Countries:
- Defined as countries where resource revenue exceeds 20% of total budgetary revenue
- These countries show a lower nonresource revenue ratio (around 50% of nonresource output) compared to other resource and nonresource countries (around 20%)
Nonresource Revenue Effort:
- Less developed countries tend to exhibit lower revenue mobilization
- The effect of corruption is robust across all specifications, with a positive correlation between lower corruption and higher nonresource revenue
Statutory Tax Rates:
- Corporate tax rates are highest in fiscally dependent countries (35%) compared to nonresource countries (30%)
- Income tax rates in fiscally dependent countries are lower than in all countries together, indicating inefficient tax collection in these countries
Robustness Checks:
- The effect of resource revenue on nonresource tax revenue is not significant when using lagged variables as instruments
- The interaction term for non-fiscally dependent resource countries shows a negative and significant effect, reinforcing the role of institutional quality in determining tax effort

Conclusion

The paper concludes that resource-rich countries in SSA tend to exhibit lower nonresource tax revenue due to weaker institutions and higher corruption, which lead to incentives for tax evasion and large tax exemptions. It also suggests that tax policy alone cannot explain the decline in nonresource revenue, and that institutional quality and corruption are more important factors. The study emphasizes the need for improving tax administration and reducing corruption to enhance fiscal effort and ensure more equitable revenue distribution in resource-rich countries.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Panel regression results showing the negative effect of resource revenue on nonresource revenue, with significant coefficients for real per capita GDP, trade openness, urban population share, and corruption.
Table 2: Effect of statutory tax rates on nonresource revenue, showing that resource-rich countries have lower tax rates and that corruption has a positive and significant effect.
Figure 1: Resource exports (average 2005–2010)
Figure 2: Resource revenue in resource-intensive countries
Figure 3: Fiscal revenue and expenditure ratios, showing the variability in nonresource revenue across countries
Figure 4: Resource vs. nonresource revenue (average 2000–2011)
Figure 5: Fixed effects and control of corruption
Figure 6: Statutory tax rates in 2011
Figure 7: Indices of quality of institutions