日本可能获得远程对地攻击导弹及其对美日同盟的影响（英）-兰德-2022.3-53页_443kb

Summary of Japan's Possible Acquisition of Long-Range Land-Attack Missiles and the Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Core Content

This document presents a detailed analysis of the potential acquisition of long-range, conventional land-attack precision-guided munitions (PGMs) by Japan and the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance. The research was conducted by RAND Corporation in collaboration with Japanese experts and published in 2022, following a virtual conference held in February 2021. The primary concern is the growing military threat posed by China to Japan and the broader Indo-Pacific region, particularly due to its advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, including a wide array of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as military aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The report explores whether Japan should acquire counterstrike capabilities to complement its existing defensive posture and how this could affect the alliance's deterrence strategy. It emphasizes the need for a shift from purely defensive approaches to a more balanced strategy that includes limited offensive operations to deter Chinese aggression.

Main Points and Arguments

1. China's Military Threat to Japan

• China's military modernization has been rapid and extensive, with significant investments in air, naval, and missile capabilities.
• The PLA's A2/AD capabilities are a major concern for Japan, especially its ability to strike Japanese territory and U.S. bases in the region.
• China's missile arsenal includes a range of systems, from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), such as the DF-21 and DF-26, which can reach Japan and U.S. carriers in the western Pacific.
• China is also developing hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and exploring UAV swarm technology to enhance its military operations.

2. Need for Counterstrike Capabilities

• Japan's traditional deterrence strategy, based on missile defense, may no longer be sufficient to counter China's growing military power.
• The authors argue that Japan should acquire counterstrike capabilities, such as cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles, to hold at risk China's ability to conduct sustained operations against Japan.
• These capabilities would be used to target infrastructure such as airfields, seaports, and command and control (C2) facilities that support China's military operations in the region.

3. Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

• Acquiring counterstrike capabilities would require close coordination with the United States to ensure alignment and avoid unintended escalation.
• The authors suggest a new combined concept of operations (CONOP) and a bilateral C2 arrangement to enable the effective use of Japanese strike capabilities alongside U.S. forces.
• There are concerns about the operational and strategic implications of Japan acquiring such capabilities, including the need for robust C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) support and the risks of increased vulnerability if these systems are not adequately protected.

4. Operational and Strategic Considerations

• Japan must consider the integration of new strike capabilities with existing U.S. military operations, including air, naval, and cyber operations.
• The development of counterstrike capabilities would require new planning, operational frameworks, and joint targeting processes.
• There is a need to balance Japan's defense spending, ensuring that resources are not diverted from other critical areas.

Key Information

• Current Status: Japan has not yet acquired long-range land-attack PGMs, but there is growing interest in doing so due to the increasing military threat from China.
• Strategic Shift: The report suggests that Japan's defense strategy should evolve from a purely defensive posture to one that includes limited offensive operations.
• Alliance Coordination: Effective use of Japanese counterstrike capabilities would depend on close coordination with the United States, including shared planning, joint operations, and mutual understanding of objectives.
• Legal and Ethical Considerations: Japan's acquisition of such capabilities must be aligned with its legal framework for self-defense and must receive U.S. consent and approval.
• Future Research: The report highlights the need for further research into the legal, operational, and strategic implications of Japan acquiring long-range strike capabilities.

Conclusion

The acquisition of long-range land-attack missiles by Japan is seen as a necessary step to counter China's growing military threat and to enhance the deterrence posture of the U.S.-Japan alliance. However, this would require careful planning, robust coordination, and a clear understanding of the potential risks and benefits. The report underscores the importance of maintaining a stable and effective alliance relationship as Japan transitions toward a more balanced and capable defense strategy.