> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Z.AI (2513 HK) Summary ## Core Content Z.AI is a company that has demonstrated significant growth in its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and is positioned as a leader in the large language model (LLM) industry. The firm's strategic approach to model iteration, intelligence, and cost efficiency has enabled it to maintain a strong position on the Pareto frontier of the LLM sector, supporting long-term monetization potential. ## Key Business Highlights - **Model Iteration and Intelligence**: Z.AI has released multiple versions of its GLM series, with GLM-5.3 and GLM-5.3-Flash representing major milestones. GLM-5.3 improves on long-horizon task execution and post-training, while GLM-5.3-Flash focuses on cost efficiency with a new architecture and hybrid attention design. - **User Growth and Engagement**: The MaaS platform has seen a substantial increase in user base and paid daily active users (DAUs), indicating strong customer adoption and deeper engagement. - **ARR Growth**: Open Platform and API ARR reached US\$1.6bn by August 2026, up from US\$1.0bn in early July, with management projecting US\$2.4bn by year-end. - **Pricing Trends**: API average selling price (ASP) increased by ~101%, confirming that growth is capability-driven rather than price-driven. - **Infrastructure Improvements**: Deployment of domestic chip clusters and an improved inference stack reduced per-token costs by ~80% YoY, contributing to improved gross margin and compute efficiency. ## Financial Performance (2023A–2028E) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 125 | 312 | 724 | 6,095 | 20,611 | 38,089 | | YoY Growth (%) | 116.9% | 150.9% | 131.9% | 741.4% | 238.2% | 84.8% | | Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 80 | 176 | 297 | 1,678 | 6,198 | 13,331 | | Operating Profit (RMB mn) | (626) | (2,538) | (3,787) | (3,841) | (1,295) | 3,557 | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | (788) | (2,956) | (4,698) | (3,751) | (1,214) | 3,625 | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | (621) | (2,466) | (3,182) | (3,430) | (823) | 4,034 | | Gross Margin (%) | 64.6% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 27.5% | 30.1% | 35.0% | | Operating Margin (%) | (502.4%) | (812.5%) | (522.8%) | (63.0%) | (6.3%) | 9.3% | | Adjusted Net Profit Margin (%) | (498.6%) | (789.2%) | (439.3%) | (56.3%) | (4.0%) | 10.6% | ## Revenue Growth and Forecast - **ARR Growth**: From US\$250mn in early July to US\$1.6bn by August 2026, showing a significant increase. - **Revenue CAGR**: Raised from 199% to 275% for 2025–2028E, driven by rapid token usage and model improvements. - **Forecasted Revenue**: RMB38.1bn in 2028E. - **Target Price**: Raised to HK\$1,985.0 from HK\$1,503.9, based on 28x 2028E P/S, discounted back to 2026E at a 15% WACC. - **Valuation Comparison**: Z.AI's valuation is higher than peers, with a P/S of 12.4x for 2028E, compared to an industry average of 10.0x. ## Business Forecasts and Valuation - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to grow significantly, with Open Platform and API revenue contributing more than 95% of total revenue by 2028E. - **Margin Expansion**: Improved gross margin and operating margin are expected due to enhanced model efficiency and cost reduction. - **Equity Value**: Based on 28x 2028E P/S, the equity value is estimated at RMB1,066,493 million. - **Share Price Performance**: The stock has shown strong performance, with a 12-month price growth of over 11,608%. ## Shareholding and Financial Metrics - **Shareholding Structure**: Lhasa Junqi Enterprise Management holds 11.2%, and Suzhou Junlian Xiangdao Equity Investment holds 7.7%. - **Market Cap**: HK\$549,414 million. - **Average 3-Month Turnover**: HK\$7,343.3 million. - **52-Week High/Low**: HK\$2,410.00 / HK\$8.00. ## Risk Factors - **Competition**: Intense competition in the LLM industry. - **Talent Retention**: Difficulty in attracting and retaining key talents could impact R&D and operations. - **ARR Growth**: Slower-than-expected ARR growth could affect future projections. ## Analyst Ratings and Recommendations - **Recommendation**: Maintain BUY. - **Target Price**: HK\$1,985.0. - **CAGR Forecast**: 275% for 2025–2028E. - **Catalysts**: Launch of next-generation models and better-than-expected ARR growth. ## Summary of Key Points - Z.AI has shown consistent and impressive ARR growth, driven by advanced model capabilities and user engagement. - The company's model iteration strategy is focused on enhancing intelligence and cost efficiency, allowing it to maintain a strong position in the LLM industry. - Infrastructure improvements have significantly reduced per-token costs, improving gross margins and compute efficiency. - Revenue growth is expected to be substantial, with a revised forecast of 275% CAGR for 2025–2028E. - The company's valuation is based on a 28x P/S multiple for 2028E, which is higher than industry peers, justifying the elevated target price. - Despite strong performance, Z.AI faces risks including competition and potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.