20150528-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_12页_502kb_502kb

报告摘要

Market Report Summary - Tingyi Holding (322.HK)

Core Content

Tingyi Holding (322.HK) reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results with a net profit of US$107 million, a -17% YoY decline.
Despite signs of recovery in Chinese consumption, Tingyi is still searching for the bottom.
The company's earnings estimate may be further revised down, and its current valuation of 23.6x 12m forward PE is considered rich.

Key Financial Performance

Group Revenue: US$2.3 billion (-17% YoY)
Net Profit: US$107 million (-17% YoY)
Net Margin: 4.6%, flat YoY
Instant Noodles Revenue: US$1.0 billion (-13% YoY)
Beverage Revenue: US$1.3 billion (-19% YoY)
Gross Margin (Instant Noodles): 30.8%, an increase of 2.8ppt due to product mix upgrades and raw material cost declines
Gross Margin (Beverages): 32.5%, an increase of 0.4ppt due to raw material cost declines and improved production efficiency

Market Share and Industry Trends

Instant Noodles Market Share (by value): Increased by 0.3ppt to 55.9%
Ready-to-Drink Tea Market Share: Dominates with 54%
Bottle Water and Diluted Juice Drinks Market Share: Lost 1.5ppt and 4.2ppt respectively
Seasonality: 1Q15 accounts for 22% of full year revenue and 22% of net profit, which is lower than previous years (27% in 2014, 24% in 2013)

Market Outlook

Consumption in China: Expected to reach the bottom in 2Q/3Q 2015
Retail Sales Value (1-4Q 2015): Rmb9.3 trillion, 10% growth, the lowest since 2004
Food CPI: Improved to 2.7% in April 2015 from 1.1% in January
Tingyi's Top Line: Still lacks meaningful recovery signs
Margins: May benefit from new product innovation, product mix upgrades, cost control, and declining raw material costs

Valuation and Performance

Stock Price (27 May): HK$17.00
52 Weeks High/Low: HK$23.25 / HK$15.90
Market Cap (HK$bn): 95.27
Market Cap (US$bn): 12.29
Stock Performance (1m/3m/6m): 2.8% / -12.8% / -7.8%
HSI Performance (1m/3m/6m): -1.3% / 13.1% / 17.1%
Forward PER (12m): 23.6x, considered rich

Key Data Tables

Exhibit 1: 1Q15 results summary, showing a decline in revenue and net profit across all segments
Exhibit 2: Monthly China retail sales value, indicating slow growth
Exhibit 3: China's Food CPI, showing gradual improvement
Exhibit 4: Instant noodle market share by value
Exhibit 5: RTD tea market share by value
Exhibit 6: Tingyi 12-month forward PE band
Exhibit 7: Tingyi 12-month forward PB band

Stock Market Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI): 28,081 (down 0.6%)
H-share Index: 14,702 (down 0.7%)
Turnover (HK$bn): 157.5 (down 21.3%)
HK Equities: Mixed performance with some stocks showing positive changes
China Equities: CSI 300 Index at 5,181 (+0.3%), Sh Composite Index at 16,964 (+0.4%), Sz Composite Index at 2,918 (+1.2%)
Asian Equities: Nikkei 225 at 20,473 (+0.2%), Korea KOSPI at 2,108 (-1.7%), Taiwan TWSE at 9,694 (+0.2%), India Sensex 30 at 27,565 (+0.1%)
US/European Equities: DJIA at 18,163 (+0.7%), S&P500 at 2,123 (+0.9%), NASDAQ at 5,107 (+1.5%), UK FTSE 100 at 7,033 (+1.2%), Germany DAX at 11,771 (+1.3%), France CAC40 at 5,183 (+1.9%)

Commodity and Currency Indicators

WTI Oil: $57.5, down 0.9%
Gold: $1,186.7, down 0.1%
Copper Futures: $6,080.5, down 0.4%
Aluminium Futures: $1,738.0, down 0.8%
CRB Futures: 220.2, down 0.7%
Baltic Dry Index: 587.0, up 0.5%
CNY: Not fully provided in the table, but data on other currencies is included

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Total Assets (YE 31 Dec): Increased from 2010 to 2014, with a peak of USD 9,206.1 million
Total Liabilities: Increased from 2010 to 2014, reaching USD 5,110.4 million
Cash from Operating Activities: Varies from USD 1,019.5 million to USD 1,275.3 million
Net Changes in Cash: Varies, with a peak of USD 412.0 million

Contact Information

Author: Yixin Luo, CFA
Phone: (852) 2683 3225
Email: Yixin.Luo@icbci.icbc.com.cn

Sector Overview

Sector: China Consumer
Key Data: Includes ticker, price, market cap, share capital, and turnover data
Shareholdings Structure: Ting Hsin Group holds 33.10%, with 33.55% free float

Conclusion

Tingyi Holding continues to face challenges with its quarterly results, indicating ongoing pressure on its performance. While some segments show improvement in gross margins, the company's overall revenue and net profit remain under pressure. The market is cautious about its future performance, and the current valuation is considered rich. The broader market indices show mixed results, with some sectors experiencing growth and others declining. The report suggests that the Chinese market may be nearing a bottom, but Tingyi's recovery is not yet evident.

展开完整摘要