2001年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Djibouti_-_Pension_System_Reform___Strategic_Note_54页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 22087-DJI: Pension System Reform in Djibouti

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Djibouti, outlines the current state of the pension system and proposes a two-stage reform program aimed at restoring financial sustainability and improving institutional management. The pension system in Djibouti is based on the French pay-as-you-go model and comprises three major funds: Caisse Nationale de Retraite (CNR), Organisme de Protection Sociale (OPS), and Caisse Militaire de Retraite (CMR). These funds face significant financial and institutional challenges that require urgent reform.

Main Economic Indicators

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1999: DF 94.4 Billion
• Population in 1999: 653,130
• Exchange rate (DF per USD): 177.7
• Pension system coverage:
  • 8% of the population over 55
  • 15% of the labor force

Key Issues in the Current Pension System

1. Institutional Constraints

• Weak governance and management: Administrative processes are inefficient, leading to duplication and high costs.
• Lack of integrated information systems: Data management is fragmented and outdated.
• Limited capacity for analysis and reform: The ability to manage and evaluate the system is insufficient.

2. Financial Sustainability

• Operational deficits: All pension funds are in deficit.
• Depletion of reserves: Funds have exhausted their savings.
• Low collection rates: Only 42% of contributions are effectively collected.
• Government arrears: Estimated at DF 7.1 billion (8% of GDP), which is a significant financial burden.
• High dependency ratios:
  • OPS: 28.9%
  • CNR: 41.5%
  • CMR: 60.3%

3. Specific Financial Challenges

• OPS:

  • Deficit in 2000: DF 197.6 million (0.2% of GDP)
  • Revenue from contributions: DF 1,068 million
  • Effective collection rate: 42%
  • Expenditures: DF 1.2 billion
  • Pensions for delayed retirees: DF 202.8 million
  • Late contributions for delayed retirees: DF 553.6 million
  • Surpluses from health and family services branches: DF 173.8 million and DF 241.7 million respectively

• CNR:

  • Police regime: Surplus of DF 37.8 million (0.04% of GDP)
  • Functionaries regime: Deficit of DF 37.8 million (0.04% of GDP)
  • Parliamentarians regime: Deficit of DF 26 million (0.03% of GDP)
  • Accumulation of benefits by parliamentarians and ministers leads to replacement rates over 100%
  • Deficit projection for 2001-2015: Up to 1.5% of GDP

• CMR:

  • Operational deficit: DF 271 million
  • Total transfers from the central budget: DF 675 million (0.7% of GDP)
  • Pensions for beneficiaries: DF 476,020
  • Projected pension expenditures: Doubled by 2010
  • Deficit projection for 2001-2015: Up to 0.7% of GDP

Policy Recommendations

Short-Term Reform Program

1. Improve governance and management:

   • Prepare the merger of OPS and CNR
   • Establish the National Council on Social Security (NCSS) under the joint authority of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor and National Solidarity

2. Address financial needs:

   • Normalize government contributions
   • Develop a plan to refinance government arrears
   • Introduce a ceiling for the replacement rate in the parliamentarians' regime

3. Improve financial sustainability:

   • Align contributions and benefits
   • Introduce a minimum pension to protect low-income workers

Medium-Term Reform Program

1. Consolidate the merger of OPS and CNR
2. Promote contractual savings
3. Introduce a third pillar (mandatory funded pillar with individual accounts) to address long-term challenges such as population aging and expansion of coverage

Key Findings and Insights

• The pension system in Djibouti is pay-as-you-go, with low financial sustainability due to high dependency ratios, low collection rates, and government arrears.
• OPS is the largest fund, with 28,294 contributors and 3,238 beneficiaries.
• CNR has a high dependency ratio (65%), and CMR has a high dependency ratio (60%) due to early retirement of military personnel.
• Replacement rates in the current system are significantly higher than what can be sustained with current contribution rates and dependency ratios.
• The effective overall dependency ratio is 28.9%, which is higher than the nominal dependency ratio due to low collection rates.
• The financial sustainability of the system is threatened by the mismanagement of reserves and the lack of adequate funding.

Conclusion

The pension system in Djibouti requires a two-stage reform program to address both short-term and medium-term challenges. Immediate steps should focus on improving governance, normalizing contributions, and merging funds. In the medium term, contractual savings and a third pillar should be introduced to ensure long-term sustainability and adapt to demographic changes. The National Council on Social Security (NCSS) is proposed as a central institution to oversee the reform process and integrate the pension funds into a more efficient and sustainable system.