2025年软件和SaaS行业研究报告_36页_2mb

Software and SaaS Sector Update Summary

Core Content

The software and SaaS sector is expected to experience a positive shift in the M&A and IPO markets over the next two years, following a period of subdued activity. The current market environment is influenced by trade tensions and policy changes, which have created uncertainty and dampened deal activity, particularly in EMEA and the rest of the world. However, the anticipated regulatory improvements and lower corporate taxes are expected to stimulate a more favorable market for acquisitions and capital raising in 2025.

Main Points

Public Company Performance and Valuations

• Software valuations are no longer solely based on growth but now reflect a balance between growth and profitability.
• The Rule of 40 is a key metric used to evaluate companies, with 76 out of 191 companies in the software universe meeting or exceeding this benchmark.
• Sub-sectors within Application Software and Infrastructure Software show varying performance:
  • Application Software:
    • Supply Chain Management and B2B Procurement trade above the 5-year median NTM revenue multiple.
    • Digital Manufacturing, Engineering & PLM have strong net retention and are among the top performers.
  • Infrastructure Software:
    • Analytics, Business Intelligence, and Data Management trade above the 5-year median NTM revenue multiple.
    • Security and Diversified Software also trade at a premium compared to other sub-sectors.

Key Sub-sectors and Performance Metrics

• Application Software SaaS KPIs:
  • Gross retention is 90%+, with SCM and B2B Procurement showing the highest net retention at 111%.
  • Digital Manufacturing, Engineering & PLM demonstrate strong net retention and revenue growth.
• Infrastructure & Diversified SaaS KPIs:
  • Analytics, Business Intelligence, and Data Management leads in net retention with 116%.
  • Security and Diversified Software Vendors also show strong net retention.

Capital Raising and IPO Activity

• Software IPO activity has been dormant since 2022, but there is a strong expectation of a recovery in 2025.
• The 2025 IPO pipeline includes notable companies such as boomi, celonis, databricks, and SALSIFY.
• Recent IPOs in 2024 include:
  • ServiceTitan: Offer-to-current of 44.9%
  • OneStream Inc: Offer-to-current of 42.6%
  • Waystar Holding Corp: Offer-to-current of 70.7%
  • Rubrik Inc: Offer-to-current of 104.3%
  • Ibotta Inc: Offer-to-current of 26.0%
• The median IPO offering amount in 2024 was $592.5M, with a median LTM revenue of $260.3M and median LTM EBITDA margin of 19.3%.

Key Information

• Global Software M&A activity in 2024 saw a decrease in deal count compared to 2023, with 1,962 deals versus 2,419 deals.
• The total deal volume increased slightly to $172B in 2024 from $166B in 2023, excluding the $32B Ansys acquisition.
• Q4 2024 saw a significant decline in deal volume, with a 51% quarter-over-quarter drop and a 3% year-over-year decline.
• 2025 is anticipated to be a robust year for both M&A and IPO activity due to expected interest rate cuts and increased market certainty.
• GenAI is seen as a catalyst for innovation across various sub-sectors of the software industry.

Conclusion

The software and SaaS sector is on the cusp of a resurgence, with improved valuations, a more favorable regulatory environment, and a promising outlook for M&A and IPO activity in 2025. Companies that balance growth with profitability, such as those meeting the Rule of 40, are likely to see increased investor interest. The focus is shifting towards sub-sectors with strong retention and revenue growth, such as Supply Chain Management, Digital Manufacturing, Engineering & PLM, Analytics, Business Intelligence, and Data Management, and Security. As the market stabilizes, we anticipate a broader range of companies to benefit from renewed investment and acquisition opportunities.