2024-06-16-世界银行-选定的碳定价政策对阿拉伯埃及共和国的经济和分配影响（英）_40页_844kb

Economic and Distributional Impacts of Selected Carbon Pricing Policies for Egypt

Egypt, a major fossil fuel emitter, faces climate change vulnerabilities and must reduce GHG emissions by 33% by 2030. This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the economic, distributional, and environmental impacts of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and/or introducing a carbon tax.

Key findings include:

1. A carbon tax of EGP 600/tCO₂, combined with full subsidy removal, reduces CO₂ emissions by 8–10.7% but lowers GDP by 3–10% due to fuel price hikes, which are only partially offset by revenue recycling.
2. Revenue recycling schemes vary in impact:
   • Public Investment: Maximizes environmental benefits, avoids rebound effects; GDP drops slightly.
   • Household Transfers (Equal/Progressive): Boosts incomes, especially for the poor (progressive transfers) but reduces emissions less due to rebound effects.
   • Corporate Tax Cuts: Only slightly favors low-emission sectors; GDP drops moderately.

Distributional impacts show that both subsidy removal and the carbon tax can be progressive if revenues cycle back to households (poorer households benefit most with progressive transfers). However, public investment reduces overall household income.

Egypt’s recurring GDP contributions (e.g., energy subsidies, carbon tax revenues) could exceed 20%, offering fiscal relief and enabling investments targeting both equity and growth.

Policy recommendations prioritize the carbon tax with public investment for environmental gains, though extreme caution is needed regarding revenue use. Policies should consider varied outcomes, and equitable design is crucial to gaining public/political support.