20141022-法国巴黎银行-SPOTLIGHT_ON_ASIA_20页_1mb
报告摘要
BNP PARIBAS Research Summary (22 October 2014)
Core Content Overview
This document contains a series of stock research reports and macroeconomic insights from BNP Paribas, focusing on Asian markets, particularly Singapore, Hong Kong/China, Taiwan, and India. The reports include upgrades and downgrades for specific stocks, sector analysis, and economic forecasts.
Key Stock Updates
City Developments (CIT SP) - Singapore
- Rating Change: Upgraded to HOLD from Reduce
- Target Price (TP): SGD9.41 (unchanged)
- Current Price (CP): SGD9.35
- Yield: 0.7%
- Key Points:
- The stock price fell 9.6% in six months.
- Fair value is now reflected at SGD9.41, considering challenges in the Singapore residential market and uncertain hotel outlook.
- Domestic growth is still elusive due to protracted home price declines.
- The company is exploring overseas opportunities, including investments in London and Tokyo, but execution risk remains.
- TP is at a 34% discount to RNAV, with upside risks including better-than-expected overseas execution and domestic policy easing.
CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) - Hong Kong/China
- Rating Change: Downgraded to HOLD from Buy
- Target Price (TP): HKD12.70 (reduced from HKD15.70)
- Current Price (CP): HKD12.54
- Yield: 4.2%
- Key Points:
- Earnings are highly sensitive to crude oil prices, which have declined.
- Net profit estimates for 2014–2016 were cut by 10–18%.
- The TP reflects a 24% discount to China peers and 25% discount to global peers.
- Key risks include further crude price declines and weaker production growth.
Sector Research Highlights
Asia Oil & Gas/Services
- Crude Awakening: Lower estimates due to lower crude price forecasts.
- Earnings Outlook: Expected to disappoint in 3Q14 results season.
- Key Companies:
- Sinopec is better positioned among peers due to downstream earnings.
- ONGC may marginally beat estimates with higher realisations.
- India PSUs are advised to take profit due to lack of fresh catalysts.
- Recommendations:
- Hilong and SPT Energy are recommended as BUY.
- CNOOC Ltd is downgraded to HOLD.
- China Mengniu Dairy is recommended as HOLD.
China Consumer
- Roller-coaster Ride - Still Falling:
- Raw milk prices in China are expected to remain weak.
- Substitution with imported milk powder is a major risk.
- Cash cost of milk production may decline due to falling corn prices.
- Key Recommendations:
- YST Dairy and Biostime International are recommended as BUY.
- China Mengniu Dairy is recommended as HOLD.
Singapore Real Estate
- 2015: A Slow Bottoming-out Process:
- Home prices peaked in 3Q13 and have fallen 3.8% since, with slow quarterly declines.
- Policy relaxation may be delayed if prices don't fall faster.
- Landbanking challenges persist despite weaker land market trends.
- Key Recommendations:
- CapitaLand and Keppel Land are recommended as BUY.
- City Developments is upgraded to HOLD.
- Top Pick: Keppel Land (KPLD) with a BUY rating.
Macroeconomics & Equity Strategy
China: GDP - Q3 2014
- GDP Growth: Moderated to 7.3% y/y, the slowest since Q2 2009.
- Secondary Industry: Growth slowed slightly to 7.4% y/y.
- Service Industry: Growth dropped to 7.7% y/y.
- IP Growth: Mild rebound in September to 8% y/y, but still the second slowest pace of the year.
- FAI Growth: Continued deceleration to 16.1% y/y, with a sharp decline in September to 11.5% y/y.
- Retail Sales: Growth slowed to 11.6% y/y in September, primarily due to lower inflation.
- Economic Structure: Improved with a higher share of services in GDP and lower energy intensity.
- Policy Focus: Shifted to long-term reforms after the 18th Party Congress.
Company Research Highlights
MediaTek (2454 TT) - Taiwan
- Rating: HOLD (unchanged)
- Target Price: TWD460.00 (reduced from TWD480.00)
- Current Price: TWD420.00
- Key Points:
- Expected in-line 3Q results, with seasonal weakness in 4Q.
- 2014E P/E: 14.2x, P/B: 3.1x, Yield: 3.2%
Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT) - Singapore
- Rating: BUY (unchanged)
- Target Price: TWD36.00 (reduced from TWD38.50)
- Current Price: TWD31.40
- Key Points:
- Lower sales estimates but expect improvement in h-h.
- 2014E P/E: 16.2x, P/B: 1.4x, Yield: 3.5%
BNP Paribas Events
- Third Annual India Tech. Tour: 19–21 Nov 14
- APAC Industrials Conference: 1 Dec 14
- Company Roadshows:
- Hong Kong: Kingdee (268 HK), Hana Financial Group (086790 KS), Samchuly Bicycle (024950 KS)
- Korea: Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP), Samchuly Bicycle (024950 KS)
- Singapore: Land & Houses (LH TB)
- Japan: Fuji Kyuko Co Ltd (9010 JP)
- Europe: Lung Yen Life Services (5530 TW), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Far EasTone (4904 TT), Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB), KIA Motors Corp (000270 KS)
- US: Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)
Summary of Key Takeaways
- Stock Ratings: Several stocks were upgraded or downgraded based on performance and market outlook.
- Sector Analysis: Real estate, oil & gas, and consumer sectors were analyzed with a focus on growth and risk factors.
- Macroeconomic Outlook: China's GDP growth slowed, with mixed signals across sectors. The service sector showed resilience, while property and infrastructure investment declined.
- Risk Factors: Crude price volatility, home price declines, and policy uncertainty were identified as key risks.
- Opportunities: Overseas expansion and potential improvements in overseas execution were seen as positive catalysts for some stocks.
Summary Table
| Stock/Region | Rating | TP | CP | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City Developments (CIT SP) | HOLD | SGD9.41 | SGD9.35 | Fair value, overseas growth, protracted home price declines |
| CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) | HOLD | HKD12.70 | HKD12.54 | Crude price sensitivity, lower net profit estimates, cheap valuations |
| YST Dairy (1431 HK) | BUY | 2.83 | 1.08 | Strong upside potential, dairy market challenges |
| Biostime International (1112 HK) | BUY | 38.20 | 19.90 | Strong upside potential, dairy market challenges |
| Keppel Land (KPLD SP) | BUY | 3.97 | 3.18 | Proactive recycling model, potential for special dividends |
| CapitaLand (CAPL SP) | BUY | 3.77 | 2.94 | Valuation reasons, potential for growth |
| Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT) | BUY | TWD36.00 | TWD31.40 | Lower sales estimates, but h-h improvement expected |
| MediaTek (2454 TT) | HOLD | TWD460.00 | TWD420.00 | Seasonal weakness in 4Q, stable P/E and P/B ratios |
Summary of Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Q3 2014 Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | 7.3% y/y | Slowest since Q2 2009, but annual target secured |
| IP | 8% y/y | Mild rebound in September, but still slow |
| FAI | 16.1% y/y | Sharp deceleration, driven by lower capital supply and weak demand |
| Retail Sales | 11.6% y/y | Slowed due to lower inflation |
| Energy Consumption per GDP | -4.6% y/y | Improved due to slower secondary industry growth |
| Service Sector | 7.7% y/y | Slowed, but still a significant portion of GDP |
Summary of Market Outlook
- China Consumer: Weak raw milk prices and substitution with imported milk powder pose risks.
- Singapore Real Estate: Slow bottoming-out process, with policy relaxation delayed.
- Asia Oil & Gas/Services: Earnings are sensitive to crude prices, with sector-wide declines expected.
- BNP Paribas Recommendations: Highlighted stocks with upside potential and cautioned against overexposure to volatile sectors.
Conclusion
BNP Paribas provides a comprehensive analysis of key stocks and sectors in Asia, emphasizing the impact of macroeconomic factors and sector-specific challenges. The reports suggest a cautious outlook with a focus on value and growth opportunities, while highlighting risks such as crude price declines, home price stagnation, and policy uncertainty.
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