卡内基国际和平基金会-Guiding-Principles-for-a-Sustainable-US-Policy-Toward-Russia-Ukraine-and-Eurasia-Key-Judgments-From-a-Joint-Task-Force_6页_193kb

Summary of Guiding Principles for a Sustainable U.S. Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia

Core Content

This document outlines the key guiding principles for the U.S. approach to Russia, Ukraine, and the broader Eurasian region, as developed by a joint task force from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. It emphasizes the need for a realistic, long-term strategy that balances deterrence, support for allies, and the management of adversarial relations with Russia.

Main Points

1. U.S. Commitment to NATO and Allies

• The U.S. will maintain an unconditional commitment to defend its NATO allies.
• Defending the international order is a priority, particularly through upholding norms like the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris.
• Ukraine's reform and security are central to U.S. and EU interests in the region.
• The U.S. should not expect a quick resolution of tensions with Russia, and must avoid unrealistic expectations of reconciliation.

2. A Broken U.S.-Russia Relationship

• U.S.-Russian relations are at their lowest since the end of the Cold War.
• Russia's actions, such as the annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, have disrupted the post-Cold War security order.
• Russian cyber operations and information warfare have intensified populist nationalism and threatened U.S.-EU unity.
• The U.S. must recognize that Russia's long-term challenge extends beyond its leadership and is rooted in broader geopolitical interests.

3. Managing an Adversarial Relationship

• A sustainable U.S. policy should involve firmness, caution, and deliberation.
• The U.S. must be prepared to respond to Russian aggression and deter future actions.
• Hybrid warfare and asymmetric tactics (e.g., cyber attacks, disinformation) are persistent threats.
• The U.S. should not pursue unrealistic rapprochement with Russia, as it risks undermining core principles and global influence.

4. Toward a New Policy Framework

• The U.S. and Russia are moving toward a Cold War II scenario.
• Success depends on whether Putin is willing to engage and whether the U.S. administration clearly defines its interests.
• The U.S. should focus on conflict management, not resolution, and set realistic goals.

Key Areas of Focus

What is Critical?

• Cyber and Information Domain: The U.S. must maintain sanctions and strengthen defenses against Russian interference. It should also support European efforts and enhance transatlantic coordination.
• Military Risk Reduction: The U.S. should re-establish military-to-military communication to avoid accidental conflict. This includes negotiating new rules of engagement and de-conflicting operations in Syria.
• Syria's Future: The U.S. should support ceasefires, humanitarian aid, and peaceful power-sharing in Syria, despite Russia's support for Assad.
• Ukraine in the Balance: The U.S. and EU must demonstrate long-term support for Ukraine. Sanctions should not be lifted easily, and Minsk implementation remains a key challenge.

What is Desirable?

• Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security: Both the U.S. and Russia have shared interests in preventing nuclear terrorism and managing nuclear risks.
• Arctic Cooperation: The U.S. and Russia may find common ground in Arctic governance and environmental issues.
• Strategic Stability Dialogue: A serious discussion on military doctrines, nuclear arsenals, and strategic stability is necessary to reduce risks, especially in crises.

What is Feasible?

• High-level engagement with Russia is important but should not be used to reward bad behavior.
• Patience and firmness in managing the relationship are essential until trust is restored.
• A methodical, long-term approach is more likely to lead to sustainable and productive relations.

Conclusion

The U.S. must adopt a realistic, principled, and strategic approach to its relationship with Russia, focusing on deterrence, support for allies, and the protection of democratic norms. While full reconciliation is unlikely, incremental progress and cooperation on specific issues can help stabilize the region and prevent further escalation. The U.S. should remain resolute in its commitment to NATO, Ukraine, and the international order, even in the face of Russian aggression and misinformation campaigns.

Authors:

• Eugene Rumer
• Richard Sokolsky
• Andrew S. Weiss

Task Force Co-Chairs:

• Richard Armitage
• Senator Chris Murphy

Supporting Organization:

• Carnegie Corporation of New York