2019-07-10_DTZ戴德梁行_Office_Q4_2018_Manhattan_4页_9mb

报告摘要

Manhattan Office Market Q4 2018 Summary

Core Content

The document provides a detailed analysis of the Manhattan office market performance in the fourth quarter of 2018, including economic indicators, market statistics, key lease and sales transactions, and completed construction projects. It also outlines the outlook for 2019.

Main Economic Indicators

New York City Employment: Increased by nearly 68,000 jobs to 4.5 million in Q4 2018.
New York City Unemployment: Dropped to 4.0%, marking the 14th consecutive month below 4.5%.
U.S. Unemployment: Continued to decline, reaching 3.7% in Q4 2018.

Market Overview

Overall Net Absorption: Reached a record 35.9 million square feet (msf) in 2018, an increase of 17.7% compared to 2017.
Overall Vacancy Rate: Dropped by 30 basis points (bps) in Q4 2018 to 9.2%, but remained 40 bps higher than year-end 2017.
Overall Asking Rent: Remained steady throughout 2018 at $72.28 psf, but achieved historic quarterly peaks in Midtown South and Downtown.
Sublease Space: Increased by 7.9% in 2018, but declined by 2.3% in Q4 due to strong leasing activity.
Direct Available Space: Fell by 2.4% in Q4 2018, contributing to the overall reduction in vacancy.

Key Submarket Performance

Midtown

Overall Vacancy Rate: 9.3%, up 10 bps in Q4 but still below 10.0% for 17 months.
New Leasing Activity: 23.7 msf for the year, with Q4 activity reaching nearly 6.5 msf.
Net Absorption: 7.3 msf for the year, with Q4 contributing 2.3 msf.
Class A Asking Rent: Reached $81.69 psf, with Midtown South Class A rents at $95.80 psf, a $14.11 psf premium over Midtown.

Midtown South

Overall Vacancy Rate: 7.2%, down 20 bps in Q4 due to strong leasing activity.
New Leasing Activity: 6.996 msf for the year, led by six new leases each over 100,000 sf.
Net Absorption: 1.966 msf for the year, with Q4 absorption at 616,356 sf.
Class A Asking Rent: Achieved a historic quarterly peak of $95.80 psf.

Downtown

Overall Vacancy Rate: Dropped by 120 bps in Q4 to 10.8%, due to healthy leasing and minimal new supply.
New Leasing Activity: 1.8 msf in Q4, driven by major tenants like Cahill Gordon & Reindel and NYPD.
Net Absorption: 1.1 msf for the year.
Class A Asking Rent: Reached an all-time quarterly high of $67.88 psf.

Key Lease Transactions Q4 2018

Property	SF	Tenant	Transaction Type	Submarket
60 Columbus Circle	1,122,702	Deutsche Bank	New Lease	West Side
120 Park Avenue	467,888	Bloomberg, L.P.	Renewal	Grand Central
601 West 26th Street	334,751	Ralph Lauren	Renewal/Expansion	Chelsea

Key Sales Transactions Q4 2018

Property	SF	Seller / Buyer	Price / $PSF	Submarket
425 Lexington Avenue	700,000	J.P. Morgan Asset Management / Vanbarton Group	$700M / $1,000	Grand Central
440 Ninth Avenue	411,000	Unizo Holdings Company / TH Real Estate & Taconic Investment Partners	$269M / $655	Penn Station
114 West 41st Street	349,274	The Blackstone Group / Clarion Partners & Oregon PERS	$282M / $807	Times Square South

Completed Construction Q4 2018

Property	Building Office RSF	Owner/Developer	Major Tenant	Submarket
55 Hudson Yards	1,148,770	Related Properties	Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCoy/Cooley	Penn Station

Outlook for 2019

New Construction: 9.6 msf is expected to be delivered, the highest in 47 years.
Impact on Market: The increased supply may lead to higher vacancy rates and potentially lower asking rents.
Leasing Activity: Expected to start strong in 2019 but likely not reach the historic levels of 2018.

Summary of Key Metrics

Metric	Q4 2018	2018 Total	12-Month Forecast
Vacancy Rate	9.2%	-	▲
Net Absorption (sf)	10.4M	10.4M	▼
Under Construction (sf)	15.4M	-	▼
Average Asking Rent (psf)	$72.28	$72.28	▲

Conclusion

The Manhattan office market showed robust performance in Q4 2018, with strong leasing activity, record net absorption, and historic rent peaks. Despite a slight increase in vacancy compared to 2017, the market remained resilient. The outlook for 2019 suggests continued growth but with potential challenges due to the high volume of new construction.

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