> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Materials # Potential supply disruption in the Middle East will support the aluminium price The Middle East (including the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran) accounted for roughly $\sim 9\%$ of the world's aluminium output (73.8mt) in 2025. We expect the war in Iran will affect the aluminium output on two fronts. (1) Iran's aluminium output ( $\sim 620\mathrm{kt}$ ) accounted for $\sim 0.8\%$ of the world's output in 2025. The destruction of power infrastructure and logistics system in the country, if any, will hurt the production. (2) The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the shipment of alumina and bauxite to the entire Middle East, and the other way round, the shipment of aluminium out from the region. The US President Donald Trump revealed that the air strike will possibly last for four weeks. We expect the supply chain disruption will lend support to the aluminium price. We see China Hongqiao (1378 HK, BUY) a beneficiary. For Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK, BUY), its capacity in Saudi Arabia is still in construction stage, and therefore we do not expect much impact. Aluminium capacity in Iran. There are four major smelters in Iran with an estimated total capacity of 670ktpa. Of this, two smelters (~450ktpa) are located at the coastal region of the Persian Gulf and are near the Strait of Hormuz. Source: SMM, Tehran Times, Financial Tribune, Iran Alumina, CMBIGM # OUTPERFORM (Maintain) # China Materials Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Jake Zhang (852) 3900 0849 jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk Related reports: Aluminium price to be fuelled by tight supply throughout 2026 - 4 Feb 2026 (link) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) - Capacity growth in Saudi Arabia + superb cost advantage on low green energy cost in China - 4 Feb 2026 (link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK) - Raising earnings and TP on higher aluminium price - 4 Feb 2026 (link) CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Newly proposed policy in Kazakhstan: little impact on asset rights but risk to valuation - 9 Dec 2025 (link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK) – Further rating is possible – 12 Nov 2025 (link) Uranium - Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle; Positive on CGN Mining – 2 Oct 2025 (link) CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Further upside driven by higher uranium price - 2 Oct 2025 (link) China Hongqiao - Lack of Interim dividends but new buyback scheme to boost confidence - 18 Aug 2025 (link) # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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