2026年全球金融服务业展望报告_风险上升与监管变革_17页_653kb

Financial Services Outlook 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Financial Services Outlook 2026 report by Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) provides insights into the evolving landscape of the financial sector, focusing on key trends, risks, and opportunities in the coming year. It highlights the interplay between macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics, offering strategic guidance for financial institutions and corporations.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Interest Income and Net Margins

• Banks' net interest income is expected to increase in 2026 in all nine major economies as central banks near the end of their easing cycle.
• Net interest margins will flatten or decline slightly (by 10 basis points) in Germany, Italy, France, and China due to sustained loan growth in a low-rate environment.
• Banks will not see immediate benefits from lower interest rates, as deposit rate cuts have only just begun and asset yields are still shrinking.

2. Climate Change and Insurance Risks

• The protection gap (the difference between total losses and insured losses) is expected to widen due to increased frequency and severity of climate-related disasters.
• Underwriting risk for insurers will rise, with some areas becoming uninsurable.
• Parametric insurance and public-private partnerships may become more common to address rising claim costs.
• Swiss Re estimates that global insured losses reached US$145bn in 2025, with climate-related disasters likely to surpass GDP growth in 2026.

3. Financial Deregulation and Systemic Risk

• The US is experiencing a wave of financial deregulation under the Trump administration, which could increase systemic risk and promote consolidation in the financial sector.
• The Basel III endgame regulations are being delayed or diluted in the US, while the EU is also showing signs of backsliding on prudential legislation.
• Mergers and acquisitions in the US are likely to increase, while the EU remains cautious and regulatory complexity will persist.

4. Blockchain and Cross-Border Transactions

• Stablecoins are unlikely to become widely accepted as a means of payment due to higher effective costs compared to fiat currency and counterparty risks.
• SWIFT's transition to ISO20022 in 2025 will accelerate blockchain adoption in 2026, enabling interoperability between tokenised deposits, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and blockchain-based payment networks.
• Tokenised deposits are expected to surpass stablecoins as the most frequently used method for on-chain currency transfers.

5. Key Regulatory and Policy Developments

• USMCA Joint Review (July 2026): The agreement may be renewed for 16 years or start the clock for its expiry in 2036. A lapse would impose local licensing and presence requirements and eliminate the dispute resolution mechanism.
• EU MiCA Transition (July 2026): Most EU member states must meet the deadline for licensing or pending applications. This will lead to market consolidation, with fewer but larger players dominating the crypto sector.
• Chinese Sustainability Reporting (April 30th): Large-cap and dual-listed Chinese companies must file mandatory sustainability reports. This aligns with international standards like ISSB and includes domestic metrics such as carbon neutrality goals.
• Brazil's Drex CBDC (June 2026): The central bank plans to launch its digital currency, Drex, which will provide a shared platform for asset pledges and automate settlements via smart contracts.

6. Risks and Opportunities

• Risk: Bank failures surge due to reduced capital buffers and looser lending standards, potentially leading to a rise in non-performing assets and systemic crises.
• Risk: Insurers face severe financial strains from unprecedented climate-related disasters, which could overwhelm underwriting models and lead to a decline in solvency ratios.
• Risk: Bond markets crack due to persistent inflation and unsustainable fiscal deficits, potentially triggering a sell-off by institutional investors and contagion across financial sectors.
• Opportunity: Governments simplify capital market regulations to enhance competitiveness, reducing compliance costs for issuers and intermediaries.

EIU Team

• Ana Nicholls (Director of Industry Analysis): Oversees EIU's industry subscription services, with expertise in healthcare and automotive sectors.
• Swarup Gupta (Lead Analyst, Financial Services): Specialises in global banking, insurance, fintech, and sustainable finance.
• Shashank Nayer (Analyst, Financial Services): Focuses on bank performance, stock market capitalisation, digital finance, and climate-related risks in the insurance sector.
• Sarah Khan (Research Analyst, Financial Services): Specialises in banking, financial markets, asset management, and financial regulation.

Contact Information

• London: Economist Intelligence, The Adelphi, 1-11 John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT, UK. Tel: +44 (0)20 7576 8000, Email: london@eiu.com
• New York: Economist Intelligence, 900 Third Avenue, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10022, US. Tel: +1 212 541 0500, Email: americas@eiu.com
• Hong Kong: Economist Intelligence, 1301 Cityplaza Four, 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong. Tel: +852 2585 3888, Email: asia@eiu.com
• Dubai: Economist Intelligence, PO Box No - 450056, Office o-1301A, Aurora Tower, Dubai Media City, UAE. Tel: +971 4 4463 147, Email: mea@eiu.com

Conclusion

The financial services sector in 2026 will be shaped by regulatory changes, technological integration, and climate-related challenges. EIU provides data-driven insights and expert analysis to help organisations navigate these complexities and make informed strategic decisions.