2025-06-03-Jefferies-露露乐蒙运动服饰（LULU）_第一季度预览_随着竞争持续抢占份额_已无更多惊喜可言_11页_594kb

Lululemon Equity Research Summary

🔎 Rating & Price Target

• RATING: UNDERPERFORM
• PRICE: $316.67
• PRICE TARGET: $220.00 (-31%)
• 1Y High/Low: $423.32 / $226.01

📑 Market Overview & Thesis

• 1Q25 Preview: Sales likely flat/muted due to store checks showing markdowns, poor web traffic, and weak foot traffic.
• 2Q25 Outlook: Q2 guidance expected to disappoint due to rising competition, reliance on outlets, slow core category sales, and markdown pressure.
• Long-term Concerns:
  • Core consumer facing macro pressures (e.g., belt bag demand slowing).
  • New categories (footwear, men's) & international expansion pose risks if execution falters.
  • 2025 is projected as the company’s slowest sales growth and EPS down year-to-year.

📊 Key Issues & Risks

1. Traffic Decline: LULU lags peers in web traffic, which remains below sector averages.
2. Product Assortment: Diversifying into non-core items hasn’t improved conversion rates; core aesthetic alienates customers.
3. Inventory & Markdowns: Inventory up ~15% YoY; expected to drive higher markdowns, compressing margins.
4. Competition: Competitors gaining share via store growth and brand awareness.
5. Outlet Reliance: 40% growth in outlet stores harming brand equity and pricing power.

🚀 Upside Factors

• Men's Expansion: Potential for strong performance if execution bolsters foot traffic.
• New Categories: Footwear/footwear expansion may provide resilience if current issues don’t persist.
• Sustainability Initiatives: Long-term goals include 100% sustainable materials by 2030 (reducing environmental impact).

📉 Downside & DCF Scenarios

• Worst-case EPS: $10.37 (PT lowered to $140).
• Negative U.S. market growth may intensify barriers in North America (70% of business).

📅 Financial Highlights

• Revenue FY2025E: $10,740M
• EPS FY2025E: $12.00; EPS FY2026E: $12.19
• P/E Current: ~24x
• EV/EBITDA: ~10x

💡 Analyst Questions

1. P&L Impact: How will sustainability measures affect margins and supply chain?
2. Product Quality: Ensure quality with alternative nylon solutions.

⚠️ Legal & Regulatory Disclosures

• Prepared for Jefferies clients only; distribution prohibited.
• Analyst certifications included; compensation not linked to recommendations.