2024-09-01-招商银行-日本养老金融系列研究_I_日本老龄化_趋势_应对与比较_12页_914kb

Japan has the highest elderly dependency ratio globally, at 29.7% in 2023, with over 30 million people aged 65+. It entered the super-aged society (over 21% aged 65+) in 2007, a mere 37 years after becoming an aging society (Aging Society, over 7%), faster than comparable countries like Italy or Germany. China faces more urgent aging challenges, with over five times the aged population and becoming an aging society 31 years earlier than Japan. The Chinese economy is expected to peak earlier and may lag behind Japan's per capita income when entering the super-aged phase.

Key Findings:

1. Population Trend: Japan's aging trajectory follows a "fast decline followed by slow adjustment and stabilization" pattern, transitioning through high stationary, early, late expanding, low stationary, and decelerating phases. It is projected to have the world's third-highest life expectancy by 2100, while the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains very low (1.2 currently). Immigration is limited (under 2.5% foreign residents) and unlikely to offset labor shortages significantly. By 2070, the population is projected to fall to around 87 million, with the elderly dependency ratio stabilizing at 38.7%. The population pyramid will become top-heavy but eventually stabilize into a "lollipop" shape.

2. Features: Aging in Japan is characterized by rapid progression, being concurrent with affluence ("middle-aged when old"), and structural differentiation. The gender disparity is notable, with higher female life expectancy (88 years vs. 81 for men) translating into a higher elderly ratio for women (33% vs. 27% for men).

3. Government Response: To address aging, Japan employs four main strategies:

   • Childcare Support: Large-scale financial incentives (e.g., 500,000 yen birth grant, monthly subsidies) may slightly boost birth rates but remain largely ineffective.
   • Delayed Retirement: Forcing (for public servants) and incentivizing employers to retain older workers. Delayed retirement is crucial due to the upcoming retirement wave from the Baby Boomer generation.
   • Increase Female Labor Force Participation: The Abe government's "Womenomics" and subsequent policies aim to raise female employment rates (e.g., 55.1% participation rate recently), though they have yet to significantly impact fertility.
   • Encourage Immigration/Foreign Labor: New visa schemes exist, but integration and potential unemployment hinder effective labor supplementation.

China Compared:

China's aging challenge is distinct ("pre-rich-post-old", 中图16). It possesses a much larger elderly population, ages faster, and faces potential future economic pressure despite significant income differences from Japan during the process. The effective measures outlined, consistent with the 20th CPC Central Committee Third Plenary Session's principles, include:

1. Strength Population Fertility: Promote a baby-friendly social policy framework, extending financial support and childcare services.
2. Steady Implementation of Progressive, Voluntary Retirement Age Extension: Carefully manage dual retirement ages and foster an elderly-friendly work environment.
3. Development of Silver Economy: Broaden elderly employment demands through diverse jobs and optimize old-age care services, focusing on in-home support.
4. Accelerate Development of Multi-Tier Pension System: Refine all three pillars of the pension system for enhanced financial sustainability and coverage.