20260210-招银国际-Cost_reduction_and_new_business_profitability_improvement_to_drive_earnings_recovery_5页_782kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Ke Holdings (BEKE US) # Cost reduction and new business profitability improvement to drive earnings recovery For Ke Holdings' (Beike) 4Q25 results, we are anticipating revenue of RMB22.2bn, down $28.5\%$ YoY due to high base, and non-GAAP NP of RMB427mn, translating into NPM of $1.9\%$, after taking into account the impact from one-off cost reduction measures. Our 4Q25E revenue and non-GAAP NP forecasts were in line with Bloomberg consensus if excluding the impact from one-off cost reduction measures. We remain positive that Beike is well positioned to expand its market share in home transaction business, aided by its strong technological capability, superior service quality, and well-established agent cooperation network (ACN). For 2026E, we expect the cost optimization measures for core housing transaction business, combined with profitability improvement of new businesses to drive earnings recovery. Meanwhile, we are looking for RMB7.0bn non-GAAP NP (2025E: RMB4.9bn), implying YoY growth of $42\%$. Our SOTP-based TP was lifted by $5\%$ to US$21.8$ (was US\)20.7) after accounting for better long-term operating cash flow outlook aided by cost optimization initiatives, translating into 25.9/21.6x 2026E/27E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY. ■ Property sales outlook: the property sector has benefitted from multiple policy tailwinds recently, including 1) financing side: remove "three red lines", the emphasis placed on this by official media signals an intent to improve the financing environment for the sector in our view. 2) Demand side: Shanghai's initiative to acquire existing homes for public rental housing which theoretically could stabilize secondary home prices by anchoring price expectations. While the actual impact hinges on the acquisition scale and execution efficiency, limited scale and core area-focused acquisition could lead to further price divergence in the secondary market. Nonetheless, the marginal upgrade demand stimulated may provide some support for new home prices. For FY26E, we forecast new home sales GTV to decline $6\%$ YoY to RMB 7.1tn (volume $-5\%$ , price $-1\%$ ), and secondary home sales GTV to fall $11\%$ YoY to RMB 6.5tn (volume $+5\%$ , price $-14\%$ ). 4Q25 results preview. For 4Q25E, we are looking for total revenue of RMB22.2bn, down $28.5\%$ YoY, owing to a high base in 4Q24. We are looking for non-GAAP OP/NP of RMB40mn/427mn, translating into $0.2 / 1.9\%$ non-GAAP OPM/NPM. SOTP-based target price of US$21.8 per ADS. Our TP consists of US$20.9/ADS for Beike Core and US\)0.9/ADS for Shengdu, and translates into 25.9/21.6x 2025E/2026E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY. Key risks: 1) slower-than-expected GTV growth for new homes and existing home sales GTV amid industry headwinds; and 2) slower-than-expected margin recovery dragged by more aggressive-than-expected investment plan. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue (RMB mn) 77,777 93,457 94,641 91,497 99,473 YoY growth (%) 28.2 20.2 1.3 (3.3) 8.7 Net profit (RMB mn) 5,883.2 4,064.9 2,765.2 4,881.2 6,324.3 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) 9,798.5 7,211.1 4,937.0 7,008.6 8,426.7 YoY growth (%) 244.7 (26.4) (31.5) 42.0 20.2 EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) 8.35 6.44 4.44 6.35 7.71 P/E (x) 25.9 35.7 52.2 29.4 22.5 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$21.80 (Previous TP US$20.70) Up/Downside 16.5% Current Price US$18.71 # China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk Miao ZHANG (852) 3761 8910 zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 21,766.2 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 85.6 52w High/Low (US$) 25.09/15.60 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1163.3 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Propitious Global 25.4% Tencent Mobility 7.3% Source: HKEx Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth 7.7% 10.1% 3-mth 18.4% 18.5% 6-mth 6.8% -1.8% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Figure 1: Beike: CMBI earnings forecast revision RMB bn Current Previous Change (%) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 94.6 91.5 99.5 94.6 94.4 102.7 0.0% -3.0% -3.1% Gross profit 20.2 21.4 24.1 20.2 21.8 24.6 0.0% -1.8% -1.8% Operating profit 1.8 4.9 6.7 2.5 5.0 7.1 -28.8% -2.2% -5.3% Non-GAAP net profit 4.9 7.0 8.4 5.5 7.0 8.6 -9.7% -0.1% -1.6% Gross margin 21.4% 23.4% 24.3% 21.4% 23.1% 23.9% 0.0 ppt 0.3 ppt 0.3 ppt Operating margin 1.9% 5.4% 6.8% 2.6% 5.3% 6.9% -0.8 ppt 0.0 ppt -0.2 ppt Non-GAAP net margin 5.2% 7.7% 8.5% 5.8% 7.4% 8.3% -0.6 ppt 0.2 ppt 0.1 ppt Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 2: Beike: CMBI estimates vs Bloomberg consensus RMB bn Current Consensus Diff (%) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 94.6 91.5 99.5 94.8 98.8 107.1 -0.2% -7.4% -7.1% Gross profit 20.2 21.4 24.1 20.2 22.7 25.4 0.2% -5.6% -5.0% Non-GAAP net profit 4.9 7.0 8.4 5.6 7.1 8.3 -12.8% -1.0% 1.2% Gross margin 21.4% 23.4% 24.3% 21.3% 23.0% 23.7% 0.1 ppt 0.4 ppt 0.6 ppt Non-GAAP net margin 5.2% 7.7% 8.5% 6.0% 7.2% 7.8% -0.7 ppt 0.5 ppt 0.7 ppt Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 3: Beike: DCF valuation of Beike Core business and SOTP valuation of Beike (RMBmn) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E NPV of FCF 37,239 39,860 38,251 33,781 28,941 24,245 19,026 11,978 Discounted terminal value 76,656 Enterprise value 113,894 Net cash 59,889 Equity value 173,784 No. of ADS (diluted, mn) 1,160 Valuation per ADS (USD) 20.8 (RMBmn) 2026E Beike Core 173,784 Shengdu 8,000 Total Beike valuation 181,784 Total Beike valuation (USDmn) 25,248 Valuation per ADS (USD) 21.8 Source: CMBIGM estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 60,669 77,777 93,457 94,641 91,497 99,473 Cost of goods sold (46,888) (56,059) (70,513) (74,396) (70,099) (75,325) Gross profit 13,781 21,718 22,944 20,245 21,398 24,149 Operating expenses (14,614) (16,921) (19,179) (18,488) (16,484) (17,424) SG&A expense (11,920) (14,891) (16,744) (15,868) (14,151) (14,987) R&D expense (2,546) (1,937) (2,283) (2,508) (2,333) (2,437) Others (148) (93) (152) (113) 0 0 Operating profit (833) 4,797 3,765 1,757 4,914 6,725 Other income 1,569 1,869 1,566 1,409 1,128 1,128 Other expense (719) (133) (44) (57) 0 0 Investment gain/loss (512) 78 313 448 0 0 Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV 45 9 10 23 0 0 Interest income 743 1,263 1,260 1,048 1,150 1,254 Pre-tax profit 292 7,884 6,870 4,628 7,191 9,107 Income tax (1,690) (1,994) (2,792) (1,850) (2,296) (2,769) After tax profit (1,397) 5,890 4,078 2,779 4,894 6,338 Minority interest 11 (6) (13) (13) (13) (13) Net profit (1,386) 5,883 4,065 2,765 4,881 6,324 Core net profit (1,386) 5,883 4,065 2,765 4,881 6,324 Adjusted net profit 2,843 9,798 7,211 4,937 7,009 8,427 BALANCE SHEET 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 70,425 69,754 76,603 78,807 81,963 90,417 Cash & equivalents 19,413 19,635 11,443 16,012 18,860 25,699 Restricted cash 6,181 6,223 8,858 9,301 9,766 10,255 Account receivables 4,163 3,176 5,498 3,485 3,413 4,115 Other current assets 40,667 40,720 50,804 50,009 49,923 50,348 Non-current assets 38,923 50,578 56,546 58,461 60,444 62,495 PP&E 2,037 1,965 2,400 2,521 2,559 2,664 Right-of-use assets 11,284 17,618 23,367 27,367 29,367 31,367 Intangibles 1,687 1,067 858 (1,348) (1,403) (1,458) Goodwill 4,934 4,857 4,777 4,777 4,777 4,777 Other non-current assets 18,981 25,071 25,144 25,144 25,144 25,144 Total assets 109,347 120,332 133,149 137,268 142,407 152,911 Current liabilities 33,341 39,524 52,744 54,247 52,497 54,694 Short-term borrowings 619 290 288 288 288 288 Account payables 5,843 6,329 9,493 11,210 10,563 11,350 Other current liabilities 14,528 13,175 15,913 15,298 14,639 15,510 Lease liabilities 4,972 9,369 13,730 13,730 13,730 13,730 Contract liabilities 3,260 4,665 6,052 6,052 6,052 6,052 Accrued expenses 4,118 5,696 7,269 7,669 7,226 7,764 Non-current liabilities 6,952 8,607 8,957 8,957 8,957 8,957 Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other non-current liabilities 6,952 8,607 8,957 8,957 8,957 8,957 Total liabilities 40,293 48,131 61,701 63,204 61,454 63,651 Share capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retained earnings (11,406) (5,673) (1,724) 1,041 5,923 12,247 Other reserves 80,326 77,773 73,048 72,885 74,879 76,849 Total shareholders equity 68,920 72,100 71,324 73,926 80,802 89,096 Minority interest 134 101 124 137 151 164 Total equity and liabilities 109,347 120,332 133,149 137,268 142,407 152,911 CASH FLOW 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 292 7,884 6,870 4,628 7,191 9,107 Depreciation & amortization 1,089 932 691 812 856 863 Tax paid 1,690 1,994 2,792 1,850 2,296 2,769 Change in working capital 5,036 2,075 1,925 35 (3,591) (758) Others 354 (1,471) (2,831) (1,722) (2,598) (3,569) Net cash from operations 8,461 11,414 9,447 5,603 4,155 8,412 Investing Capital expenditure (793) (874) (1,037) (868) (840) (913) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments 5,420 (5,595) (11,886) 0 0 0 Others (13,099) 2,492 3,545 277 (2) (172) Net cash from investing (8,472) (3,977) (9,378) (592) (841) (1,085) Financing Net borrowings 359 (329) (2) 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others (1,514) (6,889) (5,792) 0 0 0 Net cash from financing (1,155) (7,218) (5,795) 0 0 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 26,732 25,594 25,857 20,301 25,313 28,626 Exchange difference 29 45 169 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 25,594 25,857 20,301 25,313 28,626 35,954 GROWTH 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Revenue (24.9%) 28.2% 20.2% 1.3% (3.3%) 8.7% Gross profit (12.9%) 57.6% 5.6% (11.8%) 5.7% 12.9% Operating profit na na (21.5%) (53.3%) 179.7% 36.9% Net profit na na (30.9%) (32.0%) 76.5% 29.6% Adj. net profit 23.9% 244.7% (26.4%) (31.5%) 42.0% 20.2% PROFITABILITY 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 22.7% 27.9% 24.6% 21.4% 23.4% 24.3% Operating margin (1.4%) 6.2% 4.0% 1.9% 5.4% 6.8% Adj. net profit margin 4.7% 12.6% 7.7% 5.2% 7.7% 8.5% Return on equity (ROE) (2.0%) 8.3% 5.7% 3.8% 6.3% 7.4% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) Current ratio (x) 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 VALUATION 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec P/E ns 25.9 35.7 52.2 29.4 22.5 P/E (diluted) ns 26.6 37.5 54.6 30.9 23.6 P/B 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 P/CFPS 19.7 14.3 18.0 31.9 45.6 20.1 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets. # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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