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USA Restaurants Equity Research Summary

This report analyzes US restaurant performance as of May 2025, focusing on quick service (QSR), fast casual/small-box categories, and fast casual/small-box brands. Key metrics include monthly active users (MAU) and app downloads, with yearly-over-year (YoY) growth rates.

Overall Trends

• Quick Service (QSR) MAU Growth: 9.7% YoY in May 2025, with a monthly improvement of +40 basis points (bps) compared to February-April trends.
• QSR App Downloads: 1.4% YoY growth, stabilizing after April's decline.
• Fast Casual/Small-box MAU Growth: 9.7% YoY, slightly slowing from previous months.
• App Downloads: -1.1% YoY, with some brands showing volatility.

Top 3 and Bottom 3 Performers (Based on May 2025 YoY Data)

QSR Top 3:

1. Taco Bell (US): +20% MAU YoY, +6% app downloads YoY.
2. McDonald's (US): +17.5% MAU YoY, -13% app downloads YoY but improved sequentially.
3. Pizza Hut (US): +31% MAU YoY, +3.2% app downloads YoY.

QSR Bottom 3:

1. KFC (US): -50 basis points app downloads YoY change from April.
2. Other declining brands: Data shows negative trends, but specific brands like KFC had minimal growth.
3. Varied performance: Some brands, e.g., Jack in the Box (US), showed negative YoY changes in app downloads.

Fast Casual/Small-box Top 3:

1. Portillo's: +155% MAU YoY, +325% app downloads YoY – extraordinary growth linked to promotional events.
2. Dutch Bros (BROS): Brand growth in app usage.
3. Burger King (Worldwide): Positive momentum.

Fast Casual/Small-box Bottom 3:

1. KFC Worldwide: Declining engagement.
2. Wendy's (US): Mixed performance.
3. Papa John's Pizza (US): Limited growth in app downloads.

Highlighted Brands and Insights

• Shake Shack: +610bps in MAU sequential growth, boosted by loyalty promotions.
• Digital and Delivery Focus: Emphasis on digital apps, loyalty programs, and delivery mixes, with brands like McDonald's improving through value promotions.
• Volatility: Growth rates vary monthly; some brands showed stabilization or declines in app downloads in specific categories.

Key Analysis Points

• Stable MAU Growth in QSR: Indicates consistent user engagement, with brands like Taco Bell and McDonald's driving positive results.
• Slowing QSR Growth: Download trends moderated, suggesting potential saturation or external factors.
• Fast Casual Strength: High growth in MAU for portillo's highlights new strategies, but delivery app downloads are less robust.
• Market Dynamics: Overall, QSR categories show resilience, but diversity in brand performance underscores risk factors such as promotions and consumer preferences.

Analyst Recommendations and Risks

• Ratings: Various brands rated Buy or Hold; e.g., Dutch Bros and Portillo's are Buy-rated.
• Risks: Market volatility, currency risks for non-US brands, and regulatory factors.

For a full analysis, refer to the detailed report tables and disclosures.