20160603-三星证券-Dividend_Investment_Tax_incentives__interim_payouts_19页_781kb

2015 Dividend Payouts and 2016 Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The document provides an analysis of dividend trends in 2015 and the outlook for 2016, focusing on the impact of tax incentives and interim dividends on corporate payouts. It highlights the significance of dividends in the low-interest rate environment and how they are becoming a key criterion for equity investment.

Key Findings

2015 Dividend Payouts

• Total Dividends Paid by Kospi Firms: KRW20.4 trillion, up 30% from 2014 (KRW15.7 trillion).
• Dividend Yield: Increased to 1.61%, up 27% year-over-year, surpassing the Bank of Korea's policy rate.
• Payout Ratio: Reached 22.8%, the highest since 2008.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • Utilities: The largest contributor, with a 307.2% growth in dividends, adding 10.7% to the overall growth.
  • Kepco: Played a major role in the utilities sector's dividend increase, raising its DPS from KRW500 to KRW3,100.
  • Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy: Also made significant contributions to the overall dividend growth.

2016 Dividend Outlook

• Expected Total Dividends: KRW21.1 trillion, a slight increase from 2015.
• Dividend Yield Forecast: 1.7%, based on current share prices.
• Trend: Dividend growth is expected to continue, with many companies maintaining or increasing their payout policies.

Dividend Tax Incentives

Purpose

• To motivate companies to pay higher dividends, as outlined in the Revised Tax Incentive Limitation Act (effective Dec 23, 2014).

Definition of "High-Dividend Paying" Companies

• Criteria:
  1. Dividend payout ratio and yield 120% above market averages with dividend growth exceeding 10%.
  2. Dividend payout ratio and yield 50% above market averages with dividend growth exceeding 30%.

Impact

• Kospi: 39% of dividends qualified for tax incentives.
• Kosdaq: 45% of dividends qualified for tax incentives.
• Effect on Dividends: The incentives contributed significantly to the rise in dividends, with companies likely to continue increasing payouts until 2017.

Investment Idea

• Investors should focus on companies that benefited from tax incentives in 2015 and which currently offer high dividend yields.
• These companies are expected to continue their dividend growth due to the incentives expiring after 2017.

Interim Dividends in June

• Number of Companies Paying Interim Dividends: Nine members of the Samsung Universe are expected to pay interim dividends in June.
• Firms Ending Fiscal Year in December: Likely to pay interim dividends in June, aligning with the trend of increased dividend payouts.
• 2015 Interim Dividends: A list of Kospi firms that paid interim dividends in June 2015 is provided, along with their DPS and projected 2016 dividend yields.

Notable Stocks

• Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Posco, SK Telecom, and others are expected to pay interim dividends in June 2016, with some showing strong dividend yields.

High Dividend Yield Stocks (2016)

Large Kospi Stocks (Market Cap > KRW0.5t)

Small Kospi Stocks (Market Cap < KRW0.5t)

Kosdaq Stocks

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of dividends in the current investment climate, driven by both tax incentives and a trend toward higher payouts. It provides a detailed breakdown of 2015 dividend growth across sectors, highlights the role of Kepco in the utilities sector, and forecasts 2016 dividend yields. Investors are advised to focus on companies that benefited from tax incentives and are expected to maintain or increase their dividends, especially those with high dividend yields and strong financial performance.