2010年-世界发展银行全球_Petroleum_Markets_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa___Analysis_and_Assessment_of_12_Countries_78页_1mb

Summary of Petroleum Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

Core Content

This report provides an analysis and assessment of petroleum markets in 12 Sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on cost structures, market efficiency, and policy implications. It is part of the Extractive Industries for Development Series and was prepared by Masami Kojima of the World Bank, with contributions from William Matthews and Fred Sexmith.

The study examines the supply chain of petroleum products, including importation, refining, storage, and retail, and evaluates the efficiency of these stages. It also explores the legal and policy frameworks that influence fuel prices, particularly in relation to price controls, market liberalization, and the role of domestic refineries.

Main Findings

Petroleum Product Usage

Petroleum products are vital across all sectors of the economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in:

• Transportation: Gasoline and diesel are the primary fuels for road transport.
• Power Generation: Oil accounts for 11% of total electricity generated in Africa in 2007.
• Household Use: Kerosene and LPG are used for lighting, cooking, and heating, while gasoline and diesel are used in private vehicles and captive power generation.

Impact of Fuel Prices

Fuel prices have macroeconomic and microeconomic consequences:

• Macroeconomic: Affect balance of payments, GDP, and government budgets (especially in countries with fuel subsidies).
• Microeconomic: Reduce effective household income by:
  • Increasing direct costs of consumption.
  • Raising prices of other goods with oil as an intermediate input (e.g., food, due to higher transport and input costs).
  • Slowing GDP growth when oil prices rise.

Market Size and Infrastructure

• The study covers 12 countries with small to medium domestic consumption levels, all under 25,000 barrels per day, except South Africa.
• Refineries: Only three of the seven refineries in the study are world-scale, all located in South Africa.
• Transportation:
  • Pipeline: Most cost-effective but underutilized. Only Kenya and South Africa have pipelines, but both face operational challenges.
  • Rail: Underused in most countries, with the exception of Madagascar, which has potential for expansion.
  • Road: Dominant but suffers from poor conditions, congestion, and slow border clearance, increasing costs.

Pricing and Policy Framework

• Price Control: Eight countries (including all five West African nations) have price controls. Malawi is an exception, using a stabilization fund with no set adjustment frequency.
• Pricing Models:
  • Côte d'Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, and Senegal: Use pan-territorial pricing.
  • Burkina Faso: Has two sets of uniform prices based on location.
  • Kenya: Uses an Open Tender System, which has been questioned for cost-effectiveness.
• Domestic Refineries:
  • Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Senegal provide explicit protection to their refineries.
  • South African refineries are indirectly protected by import restrictions.
  • Refineries in Kenya and Senegal are not economically viable, with Kenya's refinery requiring rehabilitation and Senegal's being too small.

Legal and Regulatory Environment

• Legal frameworks in many countries are outdated and based on French colonial texts.
• Weak monitoring and enforcement of regulations are common, even in countries with strong legal frameworks.
• Licensing criteria for operators need to be strict and enforced to prevent inefficiencies in the market.

Fuel Shortages and Storage

• Fuel shortages have led to price spikes in several countries, particularly in landlocked Uganda.
• Storage capacity is generally adequate except in Malawi and Uganda, where it is limited.
• Ensuring sufficient fuel stocks is crucial for mitigating supply disruptions, though it is expensive and often not implemented due to lack of funding.

Cost Reduction Potential

• Transportation: Pipeline transport is most cost-effective, but requires significant investment and reliable electricity.
• Rail: Can be a cost-effective alternative if infrastructure is rehabilitated and expanded.
• Road: Can be improved with better road surfaces and modern, fuel-efficient trucks.
• Procurement: Alternative systems and procedures may reduce costs, especially in countries with price control mechanisms.
• Market Liberalization: Encourages competition and reduces inefficiencies in the sector.

Key Information

• World Oil Prices: Increased four-fold between 2004 and 2008, then dropped sharply in late 2008.
• HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index): Indicates market concentration. Eight of the 12 countries have HHI above 1,800, considered concentrated.
• Price Components:
  • Landed Cost: The cost of fuel at the port.
  • Oil Industry Component: Gross margins for storage, transport, and distribution.
  • Government Take: Taxes and fees.
• Fuel Price Levels (December 2008):
  • Gasoline: South Africa has the lowest cost structure at $0.53 per liter.
  • Diesel: Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Tanzania have similar net-of-tax prices at $0.70–0.71 per liter.
  • Madagascar and Uganda have the highest net-of-tax prices, especially due to supply disruptions and high transport costs.

Recommendations

• Improve infrastructure, particularly pipelines and rail, to reduce transport costs.
• Enhance monitoring and enforcement of legal frameworks and market regulations.
• Consider market liberalization and competitive pricing to reduce inefficiencies.
• Strengthen procurement systems and price control mechanisms to ensure cost-effective fuel supply.
• Expand storage capacity, especially in landlocked countries, to protect against supply shocks.
• Promote transparency in price information to improve market efficiency and public awareness.

Conclusion

The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in managing petroleum markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. While some countries have well-established frameworks, many face inefficiencies due to outdated policies, weak enforcement, and limited infrastructure. Addressing these issues through market liberalization, improved transport systems, and better regulatory oversight can lead to more efficient and cost-effective fuel supply.