> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # NIO Inc. Summary ## Core Content NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) reported a 4Q25 earnings beat, driven by lower-than-expected R&D and SG&A expenses, despite a 0.2% revenue shortfall compared to prior projections. The company achieved its first-ever net profit of RMB122mn in 4Q25, indicating a shift in financial performance. However, analysts maintain a HOLD rating, citing ongoing challenges in sustaining these cost reductions and profitability in FY26E. ## Main Points ### Financial Performance in 4Q25 - **Revenue**: RMB34.7bn, up 76% YoY. - **Gross Margin (GPM)**: 17.5%, up 3.7ppts QoQ and 0.1ppt above expectations. - **Non-GAAP Operating Profit**: RMB1.25bn, exceeding the previous profit alert of RMB0.8-1.2bn. - **Net Profit**: RMB122mn, a first-time positive result. - **R&D and SG&A Expenses**: Below estimates by RMB0.5bn and RMB1.6bn respectively, contributing to the earnings beat. ### FY26E Projections and Concerns - **Sales Volume Forecast**: Revised down by 10,000 units to 460,000 units, still aligned with management guidance of 40-50% growth. - **GPM Projection**: 16.3%, with a sales assumption of 460,000 units and 60% of units being ES9, ES8, ES7, L90, and L80. - **Net Loss Projection**: RMB3.8bn for FY26E. - **R&D and SG&A Expenses**: Projected at RMB9.9bn and RMB15.5bn, respectively, with SG&A at 12% of revenue. - **Concerns**: The success of the Onvo L90 may not be sustainable, and the ES8 could follow a similar pattern, affecting GPM. The AI race and rising component costs are also seen as pressure points. ### Earnings and Valuation - **Price Targets**: Revised ADR price to US$6.00 (HK$47.00 for H-shares), down from prior US$6.40 (HK$50.00). - **P/S Ratio**: 0.8x (based on revised FY26E revenue). - **Key Risks**: Sales volume and margin deviations, sector re-rating or de-rating. ## Key Financial Metrics ### Revenue Growth - FY23A: 55,618 RMB mn - FY24A: 65,732 RMB mn (+18.2% YoY) - FY25A: 87,488 RMB mn (+33.1% YoY) - FY26E: 128,659 RMB mn (+47.1% YoY) - FY27E: 147,282 RMB mn (+14.5% YoY) ### Gross Margin - FY23A: 9.9% - FY24A: 13.6% - FY25A: 16.1% - FY26E: 16.1% - FY27E: 15.0% ### Operating Profit - FY23A: -21,874.1 RMB mn - FY24A: -21,874.1 RMB mn - FY25A: -14,041.2 RMB mn - FY26E: -3,811.1 RMB mn - FY27E: -2,734.5 RMB mn ### Net Profit - FY23A: -21,147.0 RMB mn - FY24A: -22,658.0 RMB mn - FY25A: -15,571.0 RMB mn - FY26E: -3,828.5 RMB mn - FY27E: -2,228.3 RMB mn ### Adjusted Net Profit - FY23A: -18,474.8 RMB mn - FY24A: -20,381.7 RMB mn - FY25A: -12,940.8 RMB mn - FY26E: -1,725.9 RMB mn - FY27E: -74.5 RMB mn ### EPS (Reported) - FY23A: -1,102.77 RMB cents - FY24A: -689.02 RMB cents - FY25A: -150.84 RMB cents - FY26E: -83.83 RMB cents ### P/S Ratio - FY23A: 1.5x - FY24A: 1.1x - FY25A: 0.8x - FY26E: 0.8x - FY27E: 0.7x ### P/B Ratio - FY23A: 6.0x - FY24A: 7.1x - FY25A: 6.2x - FY26E: 6.5x ## Stock Performance - **1-Month Return**: NIO US: +12.4%, HK: -3.9% - **3-Month Return**: NIO US: +11.1%, HK: -2.8% - **6-Month Return**: NIO US: -6.1%, HK: -16.9% ## Stock Data - **Market Cap**: NIO US: 14,299.92 mn, HK: 95,684 mn - **Avg 3-Month Turnover**: NIO US: 198.63 mn, HK: 221.99 mn - **52-Week High/Low**: NIO US: 7.89 / 3.14, HK: 61.2 / 24.5 - **Issued Shares**: 2,508.757 mn ## Analysts and Ratings - **Analysts**: Ji SHI, Wenjing DOU, and Austin Liang - **CMBIGM Ratings**: - **BUY**: Potential return of over 15% over 12 months - **HOLD**: Potential return of +15% to -10% over 12 months - **SELL**: Potential loss of over 10% over 12 months - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark ## Disclosures - The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation. - No trading was done within 30 days prior to the report, and no trading is planned within 3 business days after. - The analyst does not have any financial interests in the companies covered. - The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors. ## Legal and Regulatory Information - **UK**: Report is provided only to certain investors as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act. - **US**: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer; report is for major US institutional investors. - **Singapore**: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations. ## Summary of Key Factors Affecting NIO - **Sustainability of R&D and SG&A Expenses**: Analysts are concerned about the ability to sustain the cost reductions seen in 4Q25. - **Competition**: The highly competitive Chinese auto market poses a challenge for NIO's profitability. - **AI Race**: The company's investment in AI may affect its operating costs and profitability. - **Component Price Volatility**: This could impact margins and profitability in FY26E. - **Sales Performance**: The success of the Onvo L90 may not be replicable for future models. - **Net Profit**: NIO's first net profit in 4Q25 highlights progress, but challenges remain for FY26E.