20260526-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_844kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI's Credit Research Department, dated for the "The Asset G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2026". It provides insights into the fixed income market performance, analysis of specific bonds, and macroeconomic updates affecting the market. The report includes market movements, analyst comments, and a review of recent financial results for San Miguel Global Power (SMCGL), along with details on new bond issues and ratings changes.

Key Market Movements

• Asian IG space tightened 1-5bps, with notable gains in Japanese and European AT1s, insurance subs, GLPCHI 29/GLPSPs, and SOFTBK 61-65.
• EHICAR 27' and 29' lost 1.0-1.1pts.
• LNGFOR 29 was 0.4pt lower.
• KIOXIA 30-33s rose 0.6-1.3pts, supported by AM and RM buying, with Fitch and S&P upgrading it to BBB-.
• SOFTBKs gained 0.1-0.7pt.
• SUMIBK/MIZUHO/NOMURA traded 2-3bps tighter.
• In FRN space, 3-5yr JP/CN/AU financial papers closed 1-2bps tighter.
• Chinese IG names MEITUA/AACTEC and TW lifers closed 2-5bps tighter due to balanced flows.
• BTSDF 28 closed 0.3pt higher.
• WESCHI 28-29 were unchanged to 0.3pt higher.
• Macau gaming complexes traded 0.1pt lower to 0.3pt higher.
• SMCGL Perps were unchanged to 0.1pt lower.
• TOPTB/PTTGC Perps traded 0.3pt higher.
• VEDLN 28-33s/IHFLIN 27-30 edged 0.1-0.3pt higher.
• ReNew Energy complex were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher.
• LLOYDS 6 5/8 Perp rose 1.5pts.
• STANLN 7 Perp gained 0.2pt.

SMCGL Analysis

Financial Highlights (1Q26)

• Revenue increased 26% YoY to PHP53.6bn, driven by full quarter contributions from new power plants and BESS facilities.
• Cost of power sold declined 21% YoY to PHP23.3bn.
• Gross profit surged 132% YoY to PHP30.3bn, with gross profit margin expanding to 56.5%.
• EBITDA dropped 16% YoY to PHP29.996bn, mainly due to the absence of a one-off valuation gain and forex losses.
• Operating cash flow rose 25% YoY to PHP19.9bn.
• Capex increased to PHP10.2bn, up from PHP3.4bn in 1Q25.
• Cash and cash equivalent rose 20% to PHP122.1bn.
• Total debt slightly increased to PHP601.3bn, with total debt/LTM recurring EBITDA at 4.6x and net debt/LTM recurring EBITDA at 3.0x.
• Cash to ST debt remained at a healthy level of 1.8x.

Analyst Recommendations

• Maintain buy recommendation on SMCGL due to improving operating profile, good access to funding channels, and proactive liability management.
• Prefer SMCGL 8.125 Perp and SMCGL 8.95 Perp for their decent YTC, better liquidity, and high likelihood of first call redemption.
• Also recommend PCORPM 7.35 Perp, issued by SMCGL's affiliate Petron Corp, as a low-beta and good carry play.

Other Key News

• Vanke has scheduled meetings with holders of 23WankeMTN003 and 23WankeMTN004 notes on 5 Jun'26.
• Outstanding principal for 23WankeMTN003 is RMB2bn, due on 15 Jun'26.
• Outstanding principal for 23WankeMTN004 is RMB2bn, due on 7 Jul'26.
• Nan Fung accepted USD193.598mn and USD235.156mn in a tender offer, with USD135.894mn and USD179.177mn still outstanding.
• Fitch downgraded SJM Holdings' LTFI rating to B+ from BB-, and its senior unsecured rating and subsidiary notes to B from BB-.
• Zhhfgr had its outlook revised to stable from positive, and its rating affirmed at BBB.
• Indonesian exporters must repatriate 100% of earnings into the country's financial system starting 1 Jun'26.
• JD.com is considering a GBP2bn acquisition of The Very Group.
• NIO plans to slow overseas expansion and focus on the domestic market.
• Nissan canceled EV drive unit plans in its UK plant due to soft European demand.
• Posco International formed a USD200mn joint venture in the US to produce rare earths.
• Bocom Leasing Management HK Company Limited and Hana Securities are in the pipeline for offshore bond issues.

Contact Information

• Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
• Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
• Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk

Important Disclosures

• This report is not investment advice and is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• The information is based on public data and may not be accurate or complete.
• No liability is accepted for any reliance on the information.
• Conflicts of interest may exist due to CMBIGM's investment banking relationships.
• Reproduction or distribution of this report is prohibited without written consent.

Disclaimer by Jurisdiction

• UK: Report is only for those within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order.
• US: Report is for major US institutional investors only and not for general distribution.
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG), an exempt financial adviser, and is subject to legal regulations.

Summary of Key Information

• Market Movements: Asian IG bonds tightened, KIOXIA and SMCGL Perps showed mixed performance.
• SMCGL Performance: Strong revenue growth and margin expansion due to BESS and new capacity.
• Analyst Views: Buy recommendation on SMCGL and its Perps, with focus on liquidity and redemption likelihood.
• New Issues: Several offshore bond issues in the pipeline, including from Bocom Leasing and Hana Securities.
• Ratings Changes: Fitch downgraded SJM Holdings and revised outlook for Zhhfgr.
• Macro News: S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq rose, with UST yields increasing.
• Legal Disclaimer: Information is for internal use, and CMBIGM is not liable for any reliance on it.

Authors and Certification

• Glenn Ko, CFA, Cyrena Ng, CPA, and Yujing Zhang are responsible for the content.
• The authors certify that all views reflect their personal opinions and that no compensation is tied to the report's content.
• They confirm no trading or financial interests in the companies discussed in the report within the past 30 days or 3 business days after issuance.

Conclusion

This report highlights market dynamics, rating changes, and financial performance of key issuers, with a focus on SMCGL and KIOXIA. It also outlines new bond issues, macroeconomic trends, and important legal and disclosure notes for investors to consider.