2023-09-24-IMF-俄罗斯对周边国家的溢出效应_传播渠道和政策选择（英）_46页_846kb

Russia's Output Fluctuations and Neighboring Countries: Spillover Channels and Policy Responses

Key Findings:

1. Spillover Magnitude: Cross-border spillovers from Russia's output fluctuations are substantial, particularly affecting oil-importing CIS countries. The impact is magnified in nations with high bilateral trade concentration, low economic diversification, and weak financial buffers.

2. Transmission Channels:

   • Trade (commodities) and market confidence (sovereign risk premia) channels have increased in importance since 2014, while the remittance channel has decreased, though remains significant for oil-importers.
   • Other channels include FDI and financial linkages, though data limitations hinder full quantification.

3. Structural Factors:

   • Higher bilateral trade concentration and commodities trade with Russia correlate with stronger spillovers. Economic diversification reduces vulnerability.
   • Countries with large current account deficits and high foreign-currency-denominated debt are more susceptible to external spillovers.
   • Stronger public institutional quality (fiscal governance) reduces reliance on market confidence channels, potentially mitigating spillover effects.

4. Policy Options:

   • Diversify trade and product markets, strengthening regional integration.
   • Reduce exposure to foreign currency debt and current account deficits.
   • Enhance fiscal governance to stabilize market confidence during external shocks.

Conclusion:
Russia's economic shocks continue to propagate strongly to neighboring countries, with transmission increasingly via trade and confidence channels. Structural reforms in partner countries are critical to mitigate vulnerabilities.