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Citi Research: Pirelli (PIRC.MI) - 11 June 2025

• Key Event and Government Support: Bloomberg reports that the Italian government is seeking US administration clarity on potential domestic restrictions on Pirelli's "cyber tyre" products due to concerns over Chinese influence. Citi views this as positive for sentiment, as Pirelli's cyber tyre is small-scale (~100k units, <1% of US market), still in development, and would not affect FY25 revenue guidance.

• Citi's Recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating with €7.00 target price. The news may accelerate resolution of shareholder structure issues, with no concern over short-term US revenue impacts. Upside potential includes leverage if free cash flow is demonstrated or competitor pressures increase costs.

• Valuation: Target price €7.00 based on a 10-year DCF model with 1% mid-term sales growth, 15.0% mid-term EBIT margin, and 13.0% terminal margin; WACC of 8.0%.

• Risks:

  • Upside: Re-rating on deleveraging, vulnerability of low-cost competitors to raw material cost rises, faster European/Asian tire volume recovery.
  • Downside: Reversal of premium tire demand trend, weaker global volume recovery, persistent overcapacity pressuring pricing and margins.