2010年-ECB欧洲央行_The_results_of_the_July_2010_bank_lending_survey_for_the_euro_area_7页_269kb

Summary of the July 2010 Bank Lending Survey for the Euro Area

Core Content

The July 2010 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) for the euro area, conducted by the Eurosystem between 14 June and 2 July 2010, provides insights into the evolution of credit standards and loan demand for both enterprises and households. The survey highlights a shift in lending behavior, with credit standards for enterprises showing a renewed tightening trend, while loan demand for enterprises and households began to recover.

Main Results

Credit Standards for Enterprises

• Net Tightening Increase: In Q2 2010, the net percentage of banks reporting a tightening of credit standards for loans and credit lines to enterprises increased to 11%, surpassing the 2% reported in the previous survey round.
• Consistency Across Firm Sizes:
  • SMEs: Net tightening increased to 14% (from 4% in Q1 2010).
  • Large Firms: Net tightening increased to 12% (from 3% in Q1 2010).
• Factors Contributing to Tightening:
  • Bank-specific factors: Increased significantly, reflecting renewed financial market tensions.
    • Liquidity position: Contributed to tightening (6%, vs. -6% in Q1 2010).
    • Access to market financing: Contributed to tightening (9%, vs. 2% in Q1 2010).
  • Capital costs: Contributed to tightening (4%, vs. 6% in Q1 2010).
  • Competition: Tended to ease credit standards.
  • Business cycle-related factors: Declined in contribution, with:
    • Industry/firm-specific outlook: 11% (vs. 21% in Q1 2010).
    • General economic activity expectations: 6% (vs. 9% in Q1 2010).

Terms and Conditions for Enterprise Loans

• Price Terms: Margins, loan covenants, and collateral eased somewhat.
• Non-price Terms: More restrictive attitudes towards loan size and maturity.
• Margins:
  • Large firms: Margins eased slightly to -2% (from -1% in Q1 2010).
  • SMEs: Net tightening of margins remained at 8%.

Loan Demand for Enterprises

• Net Demand: Improved from -13% in Q1 2010 to -2% in Q2 2010.
• Trend: Continued the gradual recovery from Q1 2009.
• Sub-sectors:
  • SMEs: Net demand increased to -3% (from -9% in Q1 2010).
  • Large firms: Net demand increased to -10% (from -20% in Q1 2010).
• Factors Driving Demand:
  • Fixed investment: Less negative (-23%, vs. -32% in Q1 2010).
  • Mergers and acquisitions: Less negative (-7%, vs. -18% in Q1 2010).
  • Substitute financing: Less negative (debt securities issuance).
  • Debt restructuring: Positive contribution remained unchanged.
  • Inventories and working capital: Contribution increased to 7% (from 3% in Q1 2010).
• Expectations for Q3 2010:
  • Net tightening: Expected to decrease to 5%.
  • Net demand: Expected to increase, with 29% of banks anticipating higher demand (up from 21%), more so for SMEs (33%) than large firms (19%).
  • Short-term lending: Expected to rebound from -3% to 30%.

Main Results for House Purchase Loans

Credit Standards

• Net Tightening: Remained at 10% in Q2 2010, unchanged from Q1 2010.
• Expectations: Banks’ expectations underestimated the tightening trend.
• Contributing Factors:
  • Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints: Stronger contribution (6%, vs. 1% in Q1 2010).
  • Risk-based factors: Less pronounced (housing market prospects and economic outlook).
  • Competition: Continued to ease credit standards.

Terms and Conditions

• Margins: Tightened for riskier loans (11%, vs. 16% in Q1 2010).
• Loan-to-value ratios: Tightened (7%, vs. 11% in Q1 2010).
• Collateral requirements: Tightened (3%, vs. 4% in Q1 2010).
• Maturity: Tightened somewhat (3%, vs. 1% in Q1 2010).
• Average loan margins: Increased (3%, vs. -3% in Q1 2010).

Loan Demand

• Net Demand: Increased significantly to 24% (from -2% in Q1 2010).
• Expectations: Broadly in line with previous expectations.
• Drivers of Demand:
  • Housing market prospects: More positive (9%, vs. 3% in Q1 2010).
  • Consumer confidence: Less negative (-6%, vs. -13% in Q1 2010).
• Expectations for Q3 2010:
  • Net demand: Expected to decline to 5%.

Main Results for Consumer Credit and Other Household Lending

Credit Standards

• Net Tightening: Increased to 12% in Q2 2010 (from 1% in Q1 2010).
• Expectations: Exceeded previous expectations.
• Contributing Factors:
  • Funding costs and balance sheet constraints: Stronger contribution (4%, vs. 1% in Q1 2010).
  • Consumer creditworthiness: Less tightening (12%, vs. 19% in Q1 2010).

Loan Demand

• Net Demand: Increased to 1% in Q2 2010 (from -13% in Q1 2010).
• Expectations: Broadly in line with expectations.
• Drivers of Demand:
  • Consumer durables spending.
  • Consumer confidence.

Expectations for Q3 2010

• Net Tightening: Expected to decrease to 6%.
• Net Demand: Expected to be slightly negative at -6%.

Ad Hoc Questions on Financial Turmoil

• Access to Wholesale Funding:
  • Deterioration: Banks reported a deterioration in access to wholesale funding, with:
    • Money markets: 30–40% of banks reported deterioration.
    • Debt securities markets: 40–50% of banks reported deterioration.
  • Securitisation:
    • True-sale securitisation: More difficult, with 20–30% of relevant banks reporting deterioration.
    • Synthetic securitisation: Deteriorated for 37% of relevant banks.
• Expectations for Q3 2010:
  • Deterioration: Around 10–20% of banks expect further deterioration in access to all wholesale funding markets.
  • Short-term money markets: 20% of banks expect further deterioration.
• Impact on Capital and Lending:
  • Some Impact: Around 40% of reporting banks indicated "some impact" or "considerable impact" on both capital and lending.
  • No Impact: 34% of banks reported no impact on capital (down from 38% in Q1 2010).

Key Takeaways

• Credit standards for enterprises showed a renewed tightening in Q2 2010, with a net tightening of 11%.
• Loan demand for enterprises improved, with net demand rising from -13% to -2%.
• For house purchase loans, credit standards remained tightened at 10%, and loan demand increased to 24%.
• Consumer credit and other household lending also saw a net tightening of 12%, but demand improved to 1%.
• Financial market tensions affected banks’ access to wholesale funding, particularly in short-term money markets and debt securities markets.
• Banks expect moderate easing in credit standards and mixed demand in the third quarter of 2010.