2005年-世界发展银行全球_Bolivia___Poverty_Assessment_Establishing_the_Basis_for_More_Pro-Poor_Growth_142页_11mb

Bolivia 2005 Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, titled "Bolivia: Establishing the Basis for Pro-Poor Growth," presents an in-depth analysis of poverty and inequality in Bolivia during the period 1993–2002, along with policy recommendations for sustainable poverty reduction.

Main Findings

• High Poverty and Inequality: In 2002, 65% of the population lived in poverty, with nearly 40% in extreme poverty. Income inequality is among the highest in Latin America, with a Gini coefficient of approximately 0.58.
• Regional Disparities: Poverty is concentrated in certain regions such as Potosi, Chuquisaca, Beni, La Paz, and Oruro, while Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, despite lower poverty rates, have large populations and thus contain many poor individuals.
• Self-Perception of Poverty: People's self-perception of poverty aligns with income poverty, influenced by employment, education, access to assets, ethnicity, and location. Indigenous populations and rural dwellers are more likely to be in poverty.
• Economic Growth in the 1990s: Growth averaged 4.7% annually, with exports diversifying beyond minerals and hydrocarbons. However, growth was not labor-intensive and did not significantly reduce poverty.
• Constraints to Growth: The growth in the 1990s was not sufficient to lift many out of poverty due to low labor productivity, limited spillovers to labor-intensive sectors, and high inequality.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Trends in Poverty and Inequality

• Decline in Poverty: Poverty and inequality declined in the 1990s but most gains were reversed after 1999 due to economic shocks.
• Urban Poverty: Urban poverty decreased from 52% to 46%, but inequality remained the same.
• Social Indicators: Improvements in social indicators such as child and infant mortality, education enrollment, and access to safe water and sanitation were observed, but challenges in malnutrition and maternal mortality remain.
• Self-Perception: Self-perception of poverty is influenced by factors like education, employment, and access to basic services.

II. Growth, Poverty and Inequality

• Growth and Poverty Reduction: Growth in the 1990s led to a 13% increase in per capita income and a reduction in poverty, but the impact was limited due to the nature of the growth.
• Sectoral Growth: Growth was concentrated in capital- and skill-intensive sectors like hydrocarbons, telecommunications, and financial services, which did not significantly benefit labor-intensive sectors.
• Poverty-Growth Elasticity: The poverty-growth elasticity was around 0.3–0.5, lower than the regional average of 1, indicating that growth was not effective in reducing poverty.

III. Constraints to Employment Creation – The Demand for Labor

• Weak Business Environment: The business environment in Bolivia is weak, hampering investment, productivity, and job creation.
• Regulatory Burdens: Regulatory costs, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), are high and discourage formalization.
• Credit Constraints: Access to credit is limited, with high collateral requirements and thin credit markets.
• Informal Economy: Informal employment is widespread, with significant wage-employment trade-offs. Unskilled labor demand in manufacturing falls by 6.4% for every 10% increase in real wages.
• Labor Regulations: Labor laws are costly and restrictive, leading to higher labor costs and reduced competitiveness. These regulations also discourage equitable hiring and encourage informality.

IV. Constraints to Human Capital Accumulation – The Supply of Labor

• Education Quality and Access: The public education system, especially at the secondary level and in rural areas, provides low-quality education, limiting the ability of the poor to accumulate human capital.
• Opportunity Costs: Poor families face high opportunity costs, often requiring children to work to support the household.
• Low Returns to Education: Despite increased access to basic education, returns to education are low, with six out of ten high school graduates at risk of poverty.

Policy Recommendations

• Broad-Based Economic Growth: Sustained, broad-based economic growth is essential for poverty reduction and inequality mitigation.
• Labor Productivity and Job Creation: Policies should aim to improve labor productivity and job creation through modernization of firms, integration into the global economy, and labor market reforms.
• Support for SMEs: Remove obstacles to firm modernization and growth, particularly for SMEs, by simplifying business registration, improving credit access, and reducing regulatory burdens.
• Human Capital Development: Strengthen human capital and social protection for the poor to enhance productivity and access to better-paying jobs.
• Labor Market Reforms: Modernize labor regulations to support productivity and reduce informality, while ensuring that the poor have better access to education and basic services.

Key Figures and Tables

• Poverty Measures: Table 1.1 shows poverty measures from 1993 to 2002.
• Inequality Trends: Table 1.2 highlights increasing inequality in Bolivia.
• GDP Growth: Table 2.1 presents GDP per capita growth in Bolivia, LAC, and the world from 1960 to 2002.
• Labor Market Indicators: Figure 4.1 and 4.2 show trends in labor market indicators and participation.
• Gini Coefficients: Figure 1.3 compares Gini coefficients in LAC, showing Bolivia's high level of inequality.
• Employment and Earnings: Table 4.1 and Figure A.4.1.1 illustrate employment and earnings ratios by sector and differentials in earnings.

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that to achieve significant poverty reduction, Bolivia must focus on sustainable, broad-based, and labor-intensive growth, along with labor market reforms and investments in human capital. These efforts are crucial for improving the living conditions of the poor and reducing inequality.