> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Q-Tech (1478 HK) # Positive FY25 profit alert; non-mobile (handheld/auto/XR) growth to continue into 2026 Q-Tech announced positive profit alert with earnings growth of \(400 - 450\%\) YoY, above our/market expectations, mainly driven by non-mobile growth (handheld/auto/XR), CCM/FPM upgrade (periscope/OIS/ultrasonic), India biz disposal gains and Newmax's earnings turnaround. We adjusted our estimates to reflect FY25 preannouncement, non-mobile momentum on IoT/drone/handheld/ auto/Al glasses, despite smartphone weakness on memory cost hike. We expect non-mobile biz to become the major growth driver with \(48\%\) revenue CAGR in FY25-27E, accounting for \(40\% / 47\%\) of revenue in FY26/27E (vs. \(28\%\) in FY25E). Trading at \(13.2x / 10.5x\) FY26/27E P/E, we think the stock is attractive. Reiterate BUY with new TP of HK\\(13.18 based on rollover 17x FY26E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include IoT client wins, handheld/drone orders, and FY26E guidance. Positive FY25 profit alert above our/market expectation. Q-Tech announced positive FY25 profit alert with NP growth of $400 - 450\%$ YoY, driven by: 1) non-mobile (IoT/auto/XR) CCM shipment growth of $110\%$ YoY on rapid demand and leading customers' orders (IoT client as $2^{\text{nd}}$ largest client in 1H25); 2) GPM improvement driven by mid-to-high-end mobile CCM (periscope & OIS) and FPM (ultrasonic) upgrade, better product mix and operating efficiency; 3) one-off gain from $51.08\%$ equity disposal of Q-Tech India and Newmax's turnaround with profit of RMB103mn (vs RMB37mn loss in FY24). We estimate revenue/net profit to grow $28\% / 419\%$ YoY in FY25E. ■ 2026 outlook: non-mobile (handheld/auto/XR) CCM to become key growth driver amid smartphone industry headwinds. Looking into 2026, we expect: 1) non-mobile CCM (IoT/auto/XR): $42\% /30\%$ YoY revenue growth in FY26E (IoT/auto/XR CCM $+40\% /50\% /30\%$ YoY), accounting for $40\% /47\%$ of Q-Tech's FY26/27E revenue, driven by IoT client's drone/handheld demand and spec upgrade; 2) smartphone CCM: $16\%$ YoY revenue decline (shipment/ASP down $7\% /10\%$ ) given industry headwinds on memory price hike; 3) FPM: $5\%$ revenue decline given weak smartphone shipment. In the long term, leveraging Q-Tech's vertical integration capability and strong global client base, we are encouraged by its non-mobile business growth momentum, capturing industry opportunities in drones/handheld-cam/XR.AI glasses/robotics. ■ Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$13.18. Overall, we are positive on Q-Tech's better smartphone CCM product mix and multiple growth drivers in non-mobile CCM segments. We adjusted our estimates to reflect the positive FY25 profit alert and business outlook in FY26E. Our new TP of HK$13.18 is based on rollover 17x FY26E P/E (vs. prior 19.5x FY25E P/E) on smartphone industry headwinds. Q-Tech will announce full year results in mid-March and we look for mgmt. guidance on high-end SP CCM mix, non-smartphone CCM including IoT and auto shipment/ASP and FPM shipment/GPM. Earnings Summary <table><tr><td>(YE 31 Dec)</td><td>FY23A</td><td>FY24A</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY27E</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue (RMB mn)</td><td>12,531</td><td>16,151</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td></tr><tr><td>YoY growth (%)</td><td>(8.9)</td><td>28.9</td><td>27.8</td><td>3.9</td><td>22.9</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit (RMB mn)</td><td>83.5</td><td>279.1</td><td>1,447.1</td><td>837.2</td><td>1,054.5</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (Reported) (RMB)</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.24</td><td>1.22</td><td>0.71</td><td>0.89</td></tr><tr><td>YoY growth (%)</td><td>(52.4)</td><td>241.4</td><td>417.5</td><td>(42.1)</td><td>26.0</td></tr><tr><td>Consensus EPS (RMB)</td><td>na</td><td>na</td><td>0.68</td><td>0.82</td><td>0.93</td></tr><tr><td>P/E (x)</td><td>132.5</td><td>38.8</td><td>7.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>10.3</td></tr><tr><td>P/B (x)</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.1</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.4</td></tr><tr><td>Yield (%)</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>1.6</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.9</td></tr><tr><td>ROE (%)</td><td>1.7</td><td>5.6</td><td>25.3</td><td>12.5</td><td>14.2</td></tr><tr><td>Net gearing (%)</td><td>26.0</td><td>17.8</td><td>5.7</td><td>(9.4)</td><td>(4.9)</td></tr></table> Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price HK$13.18 (Previous TP HK$14.50) Up/Downside 28.9% Current Price HK$10.22 # China Technology Alex NG (852) 3900 0881 alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LI lihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data <table><tr><td>Mkt Cap (HK$ mn)</td><td>12,110.7</td></tr><tr><td>Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)</td><td>76.1</td></tr><tr><td>52w High/Low (HK$)</td><td>16.80/5.74</td></tr><tr><td>Total Issued Shares (mn)</td><td>1185.0</td></tr></table> Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure <table><tr><td>HE Ningning</td><td>63.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Harvest Fund Management Co Ltd</td><td>2.7%</td></tr></table> Source: HKEx Share Performance <table><tr><td></td><td>Absolute</td><td>Relative</td></tr><tr><td>1-mth</td><td>13.2%</td><td>8.9%</td></tr><tr><td>3-mth</td><td>-30.0%</td><td>-34.1%</td></tr><tr><td>6-mth</td><td>-1.0%</td><td>-11.2%</td></tr></table> Source:FactSet 12-mth Price Performance Source:FactSet # Earnings Revision Figure 1: Earnings revision <table><tr><td rowspan="2">(RMB mn)</td><td colspan="3">New</td><td colspan="3">Old</td><td colspan="3">Change (%)</td></tr><tr><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY27E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY26E</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td><td>19,148</td><td>22,175</td><td>25,448</td><td>8%</td><td>-3%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit</td><td>1,512</td><td>1,567</td><td>1,965</td><td>1,434</td><td>1,718</td><td>2,008</td><td>5%</td><td>-9%</td><td>-2%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>1,713</td><td>999</td><td>1,267</td><td>939</td><td>1,130</td><td>1,334</td><td>82%</td><td>-12%</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit</td><td>1,447</td><td>837</td><td>1,055</td><td>803</td><td>959</td><td>1,120</td><td>80%</td><td>-13%</td><td>-6%</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (RMB cents)</td><td>121.9</td><td>70.5</td><td>88.8</td><td>67.7</td><td>80.8</td><td>94.3</td><td>80%</td><td>-13%</td><td>-6%</td></tr><tr><td>Gross margin</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>7.9%</td><td>-0.2 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td></tr><tr><td>Operating margin</td><td>8.3%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>3.4 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td></tr><tr><td>Net Margin</td><td>7.0%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>4.2%</td><td>4.3%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>2.8 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td></tr></table> Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 2: CMBI estimates vs consensus <table><tr><td rowspan="2">(RMB mn)</td><td colspan="3">CMBI</td><td colspan="3">Consensus</td><td colspan="3">Diff (%)</td></tr><tr><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY27E</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td><td>19,982</td><td>22,310</td><td>24,845</td><td>3%</td><td>-4%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit</td><td>1,512</td><td>1,567</td><td>1,965</td><td>1,536</td><td>1,793</td><td>2,075</td><td>-2%</td><td>-13%</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>1,713</td><td>999</td><td>1,267</td><td>838</td><td>999</td><td>1,196</td><td>104%</td><td>0%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit</td><td>1,447</td><td>837</td><td>1,055</td><td>794</td><td>966</td><td>1,114</td><td>82%</td><td>-13%</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (RMB cents)</td><td>121.9</td><td>70.5</td><td>88.8</td><td>68.0</td><td>82.1</td><td>92.7</td><td>79%</td><td>-14%</td><td>-4%</td></tr><tr><td>Gross margin</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>8.0%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td><td>-0.7 ppt</td><td>-0.9 ppt</td></tr><tr><td>Operating margin</td><td>8.3%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>4.2%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>4.1 ppt</td><td>0.2 ppt</td><td>0 ppt</td></tr><tr><td>Net Margin</td><td>7.0%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>4.3%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>3 ppt</td><td>-0.4 ppt</td><td>-0.5 ppt</td></tr></table> Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # Earnings Forecasts Figure 3: P&L forecast <table><tr><td>RMB mn</td><td>FY24</td><td>1H25</td><td>2H25E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY27E</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue</td><td>16,151</td><td>8,832</td><td>11,815</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>28.9%</td><td>15.1%</td><td>39.4%</td><td>27.8%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>22.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Cost of sales</td><td>(15,166)</td><td>(8,177)</td><td>(10,952)</td><td>(19,135)</td><td>(19,876)</td><td>(24,384)</td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit</td><td>985</td><td>654</td><td>863</td><td>1,512</td><td>1,567</td><td>1,965</td></tr><tr><td>GPM (%)</td><td>6.1%</td><td>7.4%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>93.6%</td><td>63.5%</td><td>47.6%</td><td>53.5%</td><td>3.6%</td><td>25.4%</td></tr><tr><td>SG&A</td><td>(204)</td><td>(95)</td><td>(160)</td><td>(254)</td><td>(247)</td><td>(303)</td></tr><tr><td>...% of rev</td><td>-1.3%</td><td>-1.1%</td><td>-1.4%</td><td>-1.2%</td><td>-1.2%</td><td>-1.2%</td></tr><tr><td>R&D</td><td>(505)</td><td>(279)</td><td>(307)</td><td>(586)</td><td>(600)</td><td>(738)</td></tr><tr><td>...% of rev</td><td>-3.1%</td><td>-3.2%</td><td>-2.6%</td><td>-2.8%</td><td>-2.8%</td><td>-2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>649</td><td>370</td><td>1,347</td><td>1,713</td><td>999</td><td>1,267</td></tr><tr><td>OPM (%)</td><td>4.0%</td><td>4.2%</td><td>11.4%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>4.8%</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>124.5%</td><td>67.7%</td><td>214.7%</td><td>163.9%</td><td>-41.7%</td><td>26.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Gain/loss of asso..</td><td>(37)</td><td>48</td><td>55</td><td>103</td><td>103</td><td>103</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit</td><td>279</td><td>308</td><td>1,144</td><td>1,447</td><td>837</td><td>1,055</td></tr><tr><td>NPM (%)</td><td>1.7%</td><td>3.5%</td><td>9.7%</td><td>7.0%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>4.0%</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>234.1%</td><td>167.6%</td><td>598.0%</td><td>418.6%</td><td>-42.1%</td><td>26.0%</td></tr></table> Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 4: Revenue breakdown <table><tr><td>RMB mn</td><td>FY24</td><td>1H25</td><td>2H25E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY27E</td></tr><tr><td>CCM Revenue</td><td>14,819</td><td>7,957</td><td>10,648</td><td>18,605</td><td>19,501</td><td>24,019</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>28%</td><td>10%</td><td>40%</td><td>26%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Mobile Total</td><td>12,960</td><td>6,055</td><td>6,839</td><td>12,894</td><td>10,854</td><td>11,505</td></tr><tr><td>32M below</td><td>1,391</td><td>557</td><td>880</td><td>1,437</td><td>1,379</td><td>1,274</td></tr><tr><td>>32MP</td><td>11,569</td><td>5,498</td><td>5,958</td><td>11,456</td><td>9,475</td><td>10,231</td></tr><tr><td>OIS</td><td>2,992</td><td>1,351</td><td>1,877</td><td>3,228</td><td>3,303</td><td>3,406</td></tr><tr><td>Periscope</td><td>859</td><td>1,113</td><td>1,154</td><td>2,267</td><td>2,289</td><td>2,222</td></tr><tr><td>Other 32MP</td><td>7,719</td><td>3,034</td><td>2,928</td><td>5,962</td><td>3,883</td><td>4,603</td></tr><tr><td>Non-Mobile Total</td><td>1,859</td><td>1,902</td><td>3,809</td><td>5,711</td><td>8,646</td><td>12,513</td></tr><tr><td>IoT</td><td>1,306</td><td>1,579</td><td>2,311</td><td>3,890</td><td>5,835</td><td>8,170</td></tr><tr><td>Auto</td><td>400</td><td>210</td><td>588</td><td>798</td><td>1,277</td><td>2,044</td></tr><tr><td>XR</td><td>-</td><td>113</td><td>910</td><td>1,022</td><td>1,533</td><td>2,300</td></tr><tr><td>Shipment (mn)</td><td>434</td><td>192</td><td>269</td><td>461</td><td>441</td><td>472</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>16%</td><td>-13%</td><td>26%</td><td>6%</td><td>-4%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>ASP (Rmb)</td><td>34.1</td><td>41.5</td><td>39.6</td><td>40.4</td><td>44.2</td><td>50.9</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>10%</td><td>27%</td><td>11%</td><td>18%</td><td>10%</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>FPM Revenue</td><td>1,178</td><td>826</td><td>1,062</td><td>1,889</td><td>1,789</td><td>2,176</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>51%</td><td>109%</td><td>36%</td><td>60%</td><td>-5%</td><td>22%</td></tr><tr><td>Shipment (mn)</td><td>161</td><td>94</td><td>108</td><td>203</td><td>223</td><td>245</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>46%</td><td>60%</td><td>6%</td><td>26%</td><td>10%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>ASP (Rmb)</td><td>7.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>9.8</td><td>9.3</td><td>8.0</td><td>8.9</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>3%</td><td>31%</td><td>28%</td><td>27%</td><td>-14%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>153</td><td>48</td><td>105</td><td>153</td><td>153</td><td>153</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>-18%</td><td>-26%</td><td>20%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>16,151</td><td>8,832</td><td>11,815</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td></tr><tr><td>...YoY</td><td>29%</td><td>15%</td><td>39%</td><td>28%</td><td>4%</td><td>23%</td></tr></table> Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates # Valuation # Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$13.18 We adjusted our estimates to reflect FY25 preannouncement, non-mobile momentum on IoT/drone/handheld/auto/Al glasses, despite smartphone weakness on memory cost hike. We expect non-mobile biz to become a major growth driver with $48\%$ revenue CAGR in FY25-27E, accounting for $40\% / 47\%$ of revenue in FY26/27E (vs. $28\%$ in FY25E). Our new TP of HK\(13.18 is based on rollover 17x FY26E P/E (vs. prior 19.5x FY25E P/E) on smartphone industry headwinds. Trading at 13.2x/10.5x FY26/27E P/E, we think the stock is attractive. Reiterate BUY. Upcoming catalysts include IoT client wins, handheld/drone orders, and FY26E guidance. Figure 5: Peers' valuation <table><tr><td rowspan="2">Company</td><td colspan="2">Market Cap (US$mn)</td><td rowspan="2">Price (LC)</td><td rowspan="2">TP (LC)</td><td rowspan="2">Up/Down -side</td><td colspan="2">P/E (x)</td><td colspan="2">P/B (x)</td><td colspan="2">ROE (%)</td></tr><tr><td>Ticker</td><td>Rating</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td><td>FY25E</td><td>FY26E</td></tr><tr><td>Q-Tech</td><td>1478 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>1,559</td><td>10.22</td><td>13.18</td><td>29%</td><td>7.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.5</td><td>24.1</td></tr><tr><td>FIT Hon Teng</td><td>6088 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>4,402</td><td>4.70</td><td>6.77</td><td>44%</td><td>22.6</td><td>13.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>1.4</td><td>7.1</td></tr><tr><td>AAC Tech</td><td>2018 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>5,840</td><td>39.00</td><td>60.55</td><td>55%</td><td>16.1</td><td>12.7</td><td>1.6</td><td>1.5</td><td>10.0</td></tr><tr><td>Sunny Optical</td><td>2382 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>9,062</td><td>64.75</td><td>101.47</td><td>57%</td><td>18.9</td><td>15.4</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.2</td><td>12.7</td></tr><tr><td>BYDE</td><td>285 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>9,941</td><td>34.40</td><td>43.54</td><td>27%</td><td>16.2</td><td>12.6</td><td>2.0</td><td>1.8</td><td>12.2</td></tr><tr><td>TK Group</td><td>2283 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>276</td><td>2.58</td><td>3.04</td><td>18%</td><td>7.8</td><td>6.8</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>15.3</td></tr><tr><td>FIH</td><td>2038 HK</td><td>NR</td><td>1,888</td><td>18.86</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Truly</td><td>732 HK</td><td>NR</td><td>425</td><td>1.10</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>YOFC</td><td>6869 HK</td><td>NR</td><td>8,797</td><td>47.16</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>37.2</td><td>20.8</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.4</td><td>7.2</td></tr><tr><td>Ju Teng</td><td>3336 HK</td><td>NR</td><td>323</td><td>2.10</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Cowell</td><td>1415 HK</td><td>NR</td><td>3,307</td><td>29.70</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>17.4</td><td>13.5</td><td>4.7</td><td>3.5</td><td>30.1</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Average</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>17.9</td><td>13.6</td><td>2.2</td><td>1.9</td><td>14.8</td></tr></table> Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM; data as of 15 Jan 2026close. Figure 6: 12M forward P/E band Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 7: 12M forward P/B band Source: Company data, CMBIGM Financial Summary <table><tr><td>INCOME STATEMENT</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec (RMB mn)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Revenue</td><td>13,759</td><td>12,531</td><td>16,151</td><td>20,647</td><td>21,443</td><td>26,349</td></tr><tr><td>Cost of goods sold</td><td>(13,218)</td><td>(12,022)</td><td>(15,166)</td><td>(19,135)</td><td>(19,876)</td><td>(24,384)</td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit</td><td>541</td><td>509</td><td>985</td><td>1,512</td><td>1,567</td><td>1,965</td></tr><tr><td>Operating expenses</td><td>(338)</td><td>(220)</td><td>(336)</td><td>200</td><td>(568)</td><td>(698)</td></tr><tr><td>Selling expense</td><td>(14)</td><td>(20)</td><td>(20)</td><td>(31)</td><td>(32)</td><td>(40)</td></tr><tr><td>Admin expense</td><td>(142)</td><td>(149)</td><td>(184)</td><td>(224)</td><td>(214)</td><td>(263)</td></tr><tr><td>R&D expense</td><td>(470)</td><td>(436)</td><td>(505)</td><td>(586)</td><td>(600)</td><td>(738)</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>288</td><td>385</td><td>373</td><td>1,041</td><td>279</td><td>343</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>204</td><td>289</td><td>649</td><td>1,713</td><td>999</td><td>1,267</td></tr><tr><td>Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV</td><td>(37)</td><td>(50)</td><td>(37)</td><td>103</td><td>103</td><td>103</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>(60)</td><td>(171)</td><td>(152)</td><td>(96)</td><td>(117)</td><td>(129)</td></tr><tr><td>Pre-tax profit</td><td>107</td><td>68</td><td>460</td><td>1,719</td><td>985</td><td>1,241</td></tr><tr><td>Income tax</td><td>63</td><td>15</td><td>(181)</td><td>(272)</td><td>(148)</td><td>(186)</td></tr><tr><td>Minority interest</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit</td><td>170</td><td>84</td><td>279</td><td>1,447</td><td>837</td><td>1,055</td></tr><tr><td>BALANCE SHEET</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec (RMB mn)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Current assets</td><td>8,594</td><td>11,107</td><td>10,546</td><td>14,220</td><td>13,630</td><td>19,571</td></tr><tr><td>Cash & equivalents</td><td>1,349</td><td>2,893</td><td>1,447</td><td>2,566</td><td>3,895</td><td>4,012</td></tr><tr><td>Account receivables</td><td>3,436</td><td>4,201</td><td>4,988</td><td>6,759</td><td>5,441</td><td>9,550</td></tr><tr><td>Inventories</td><td>1,184</td><td>1,778</td><td>1,976</td><td>2,760</td><td>2,159</td><td>3,875</td></tr><tr><td>ST bank deposits</td><td>919</td><td>1,302</td><td>556</td><td>556</td><td>556</td><td>556</td></tr><tr><td>Other current assets</td><td>1,705</td><td>933</td><td>1,579</td><td>1,579</td><td>1,579</td><td>1,579</td></tr><tr><td>Non-current assets</td><td>3,691</td><td>3,836</td><td>3,902</td><td>4,085</td><td>4,225</td><td>4,509</td></tr><tr><td>PP&E</td><td>3,140</td><td>2,845</td><td>2,651</td><td>2,833</td><td>2,973</td><td>3,257</td></tr><tr><td>Intangibles</td><td>26</td><td>23</td><td>19</td><td>19</td><td>19</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Other non-current assets</td><td>525</td><td>968</td><td>1,232</td><td>1,232</td><td>1,232</td><td>1,232</td></tr><tr><td>Total assets</td><td>12,285</td><td>14,943</td><td>14,448</td><td>18,304</td><td>17,855</td><td>24,080</td></tr><tr><td>Current liabilities</td><td>7,249</td><td>9,666</td><td>9,085</td><td>11,673</td><td>10,553</td><td>15,935</td></tr><tr><td>Short-term borrowings</td><td>2,616</td><td>4,152</td><td>2,352</td><td>2,926</td><td>3,234</td><td>3,622</td></tr><tr><td>Account payables</td><td>4,584</td><td>5,437</td><td>6,563</td><td>8,577</td><td>7,150</td><td>12,143</td></tr><tr><td>Tax payable</td><td>12</td><td>12</td><td>94</td><td>94</td><td>94</td><td>94</td></tr><tr><td>Other current liabilities</td><td>38</td><td>66</td><td>76</td><td>76</td><td>76</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>Non-current liabilities</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Deferred income</td><td>248</td><td>213</td><td>179</td><td>179</td><td>179</td><td>179</td></tr><tr><td>Other non-current liabilities</td><td>7</td><td>5</td><td>7</td><td>7</td><td>7</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>Total liabilities</td><td>7,518</td><td>10,111</td><td>9,357</td><td>11,944</td><td>10,825</td><td>16,206</td></tr><tr><td>Share capital</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Other reserves</td><td>4,753</td><td>4,822</td><td>5,082</td><td>6,351</td><td>7,021</td><td>7,864</td></tr><tr><td>Total shareholders equity</td><td>4,767</td><td>4,832</td><td>5,091</td><td>6,360</td><td>7,030</td><td>7,874</td></tr><tr><td>Minority interest</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Total equity and liabilities</td><td>12,285</td><td>14,943</td><td>14,448</td><td>18,304</td><td>17,855</td><td>24,080</td></tr><tr><td>CASH FLOW</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec (RMB mn)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Operating</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Profit before taxation</td><td>107</td><td>68</td><td>460</td><td>1,719</td><td>985</td><td>1,241</td></tr><tr><td>Depreciation & amortization</td><td>640</td><td>728</td><td>842</td><td>850</td><td>932</td><td>1,033</td></tr><tr><td>Change in working capital</td><td>324</td><td>(470)</td><td>258</td><td>(541)</td><td>491</td><td>(831)</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Net cash from operations</td><td>1,194</td><td>(379)</td><td>965</td><td>1,852</td><td>2,377</td><td>1,386</td></tr><tr><td>Investing</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Capital expenditure</td><td>(1,149)</td><td>(1,046)</td><td>(1,348)</td><td>(1,032)</td><td>(1,072)</td><td>(1,317)</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Net cash from investing</td><td>(1,149)</td><td>367</td><td>(1,040)</td><td>(1,032)</td><td>(1,072)</td><td>(1,317)</td></tr><tr><td>Financing</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dividend paid</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>(178)</td><td>(167)</td><td>(211)</td></tr><tr><td>Net borrowings</td><td>908</td><td>1,536</td><td>(1,799)</td><td>573</td><td>308</td><td>388</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>(60)</td><td>15</td><td>427</td><td>(96)</td><td>(117)</td><td>(129)</td></tr><tr><td>Net cash from financing</td><td>848</td><td>1,551</td><td>(1,372)</td><td>299</td><td>24</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>Net change in cash</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Cash at the beginning of the year</td><td>1,743</td><td>1,349</td><td>2,893</td><td>1,447</td><td>2,566</td><td>3,895</td></tr><tr><td>Exchange difference</td><td>(1,288)</td><td>713</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Cash at the end of the year</td><td>1,349</td><td>2,893</td><td>1,447</td><td>2,566</td><td>3,895</td><td>4,012</td></tr><tr><td>GROWTH</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Revenue</td><td>(26.3%)</td><td>(8.9%)</td><td>28.9%</td><td>27.8%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>22.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit</td><td>(69.3%)</td><td>(6.0%)</td><td>93.6%</td><td>53.5%</td><td>3.6%</td><td>25.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>(80.4%)</td><td>42.0%</td><td>124.5%</td><td>163.9%</td><td>(41.7%)</td><td>26.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Net profit</td><td>(80.3%)</td><td>(50.9%)</td><td>234.1%</td><td>418.6%</td><td>(42.1%)</td><td>26.0%</td></tr><tr><td>PROFITABILITY</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gross profit margin</td><td>3.9%</td><td>4.1%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.3%</td><td>7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating margin</td><td>1.5%</td><td>2.3%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>4.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Return on equity (ROE)</td><td>3.6%</td><td>1.7%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>25.3%</td><td>12.5%</td><td>14.2%</td></tr><tr><td>GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Net debt to equity (x)</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>(0.1)</td><td>(0.0)</td></tr><tr><td>Current ratio (x)</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr><tr><td>Receivable turnover days</td><td>104.5</td><td>111.2</td><td>103.8</td><td>103.8</td><td>103.8</td><td>103.8</td></tr><tr><td>Inventory turnover days</td><td>47.5</td><td>45.0</td><td>45.2</td><td>45.2</td><td>45.2</td><td>45.2</td></tr><tr><td>Payable turnover days</td><td>149.7</td><td>152.1</td><td>144.4</td><td>144.4</td><td>144.4</td><td>144.4</td></tr><tr><td>VALUATION</td><td>2022A</td><td>2023A</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2027E</td></tr><tr><td>YE 31 Dec</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>P/E</td><td>63.0</td><td>132.5</td><td>38.8</td><td>7.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>10.3</td></tr><tr><td>P/B</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.1</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.4</td></tr><tr><td>Div yield (%)</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>1.6</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.9</td></tr><tr><td>EV</td><td>4,767.4</td><td>4,831.8</td><td>5,091.4</td><td>6,360.4</td><td>7,030.2</td><td>7,873.8</td></tr><tr><td>EV/Sales</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr></table> Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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