兰德-Visions-of-Law-Enforcement-Technology-in-the-Period-2024_102页_1mb

2024-2034 Law Enforcement Technology Visions Summary

Core Content

This report is the result of a Law Enforcement Futuring Workshop held in 2014 by the RAND Corporation, in partnership with the Police Executive Research Forum, RTI International, and the University of Denver. The workshop aimed to explore future visions of law enforcement and identify priority technology needs that could enable desirable futures or mitigate undesirable ones. The report outlines trends, scenarios, and technology needs that are likely to shape law enforcement over the next decade to two decades.

Main Objectives

The primary goals of the workshop were:

• To explore how technology and society might evolve in the future.
• To assess how this evolution might affect law enforcement's use of technology.
• To identify priority technology needs, including research, development, training, and policy, that would support effective and supported law enforcement in the future.

Key Trends Affecting Law Enforcement

The following trends were identified as likely to impact the future of law enforcement:

• Dysfunction and uncertainty in the national political environment.
• Aging population in the U.S.
• Legalization and decriminalization of formerly illegal drugs.
• Changing expectations and capabilities for living anonymously.
• New risks and opportunities from Internet-based exchanges.
• Free accessibility of information and knowledge.
• Dynamic knowledge with a short shelf life.
• Shortening or elimination of supply chains, enabling at-home fabrication of weapons and biological materials.
• Increased automation and augmentation in law enforcement, manufacturing, and personal lives.
• Improved management of mental health.
• Persistent biometric, geographic, and transactional data.
• Accelerating technological development.

These trends suggest a future where technology plays a central role, but also one where societal and legal challenges could limit its use or effectiveness.

Future Scenarios

Participants developed scenarios based on a 2x2 framework that considers:

• The effectiveness of law enforcement in using technology.
• The level of societal support for law enforcement.

The scenarios included:

• Desirable Futures:

  • Transparent Society: Where personal data are widely available and used for public auditing and crime prevention.
  • Network-Centric Policing: Emphasizing collaboration, information sharing, and intelligent agents to manage data.
  • Oscillating Public Support: A back-and-forth dynamic between societal support and opposition, depending on law enforcement's ability to use technology effectively and transparently.

• Undesirable Futures:

  • Police Militarization: Where law enforcement adopts military-style equipment and tactics, risking the blurring of roles and potential public backlash.
  • Shortage-Crisis Policing: Where law enforcement is overwhelmed by resource scarcity and natural disasters.
  • Status Quo Future: A stagnation in law enforcement technology, leading to reduced agility and declining public trust.
  • Technology Overwhelm: Where law enforcement cannot keep up with criminal use of technology, leading to a loss of control.

Technology Needs and Prioritization

The workshop identified 30 technology needs, grouped into three categories:

1. Law Enforcement Knowledge and Practice (14 needs)
2. Law Enforcement Information Sharing and Use (5 needs)
3. Research and Development of (Other Than Information) Technologies (11 needs)

These needs were prioritized using a Delphi method, resulting in three tiers:

• Tier 1 (highest priority): The most critical needs for enabling desirable futures.
• Tier 2: Moderate priority needs.
• Tier 3 (lowest priority): Less urgent needs.

Some of the Tier 1 technology needs include:

• Developing educational materials on social media for better public engagement and internal communication.
• Researching technologies for information sharing and data management.
• Enhancing translation technologies to support multilingual and culturally diverse communities.
• Conducting R&D on ethical development in law enforcement technology.
• Improving recruiting and training practices to meet future technological demands.
• Creating technologies for artificial identity creation and biological agent detection.

Key Findings and Conclusions

• Criminals currently outpace law enforcement in the use of technology, and this gap is likely to widen with continued technological advancement.
• Doing nothing is not a viable option; it could lead to undesirable futures where law enforcement is ineffective or unsupported.
• Public support is essential for achieving and maintaining desirable futures, and law enforcement must ensure effective communication, ethical use, and transparent practices.
• Collaboration, training, and innovation are critical to adapting to a technologically complex future.
• The focus on information technology and improving information sharing and use is a consistent theme across the research, highlighting the importance of education, training, and policy development.

Methodology

The workshop used a three horizons visioning method and Delphi consensus generation to:

• Develop future scenarios.
• Identify and prioritize technology needs.
• Evaluate the impact of societal and technological trends on law enforcement.

Participants were a diverse group of law enforcement practitioners and academics, ensuring a range of perspectives and experiences.

Final Notes

The report serves as a guide for researchers, policymakers, and technology providers to understand the potential future of law enforcement and the technology needs that should be addressed to ensure safe and effective policing. The findings emphasize the need for proactive strategies in technology adoption, policy development, and public engagement.

Appendix References

• Appendix A: Workshop agenda.
• Appendix B: Workshop participants.
• Appendix C: Delphi questions and ranking scales.
• Appendix D: Statistical analysis of Delphi responses.

Summary Table of Tier 1 Technology Needs