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Summary of Toward Building Somalia's Social Contract: State Affordability, Revenue Mobilization, and Service Delivery in a Nascent Federal State

Core Content

This document explores the challenges and opportunities in building an affordable state in Somalia, focusing on revenue mobilization, fiscal decentralization, and service delivery within the context of a nascent federal system. It is a comprehensive analysis of the current state of governance, public finance, and citizen engagement in Somalia, with the goal of strengthening the social contract between the government and its citizens.

The report is structured into five chapters and includes appendices, tables, and figures to support its findings and recommendations. It is authored by a team of experts from the World Bank and highlights the importance of institutional capacity, public trust, and effective resource allocation in ensuring sustainable development and governance in Somalia.

Main Viewpoints

1. State Affordability and Fiscal Challenges

• The Somali state is in the early stages of federal development, facing significant challenges in affordability, revenue mobilization, and service delivery.
• Fiscal trends show a reliance on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and external revenue, which limits the state's ability to be self-sufficient.
• The federal government (FGS) has limited capacity to fund essential services, and state and district governments are under-resourced and often fragmented.
• The vertical fiscal gap (difference between revenue and expenditure needs) is a critical issue that must be addressed through improved revenue generation and fiscal transfers.

2. Domestic Revenue Mobilization

• Domestic revenue is a key component of building an affordable state, but taxation is underdeveloped and inefficient.
• Tax-to-GDP ratios are low, with a need to increase them to 4.5% by 2030.
• The absence of federal tax-sharing arrangements hampers the ability of federal member states (FMS) to generate and manage their own revenues.
• Customs revenues, income taxation, and indirect taxes are identified as potential areas for reform to improve domestic revenue mobilization.

3. Service Delivery and the Social Contract

• Service delivery is central to the social contract, and citizens prefer public facilities over private ones due to trust and perceived legitimacy.
• The federal government is seen as having a comparative advantage in advocacy, while state governments are better positioned to provide services and district governments are responsible for supervision.
• Legitimacy is closely linked to service delivery capacity, and participation and accountability mechanisms are essential for building trust in governance.

4. Fiscal Decentralization

• Fiscal decentralization is a key strategy for improving state affordability and service delivery.
• Intergovernmental transfers from the federal government to state and district governments are necessary but currently insufficient.
• The capacity of local governments to collect taxes and deliver services is limited, requiring investment in infrastructure, human resources, and institutional reforms.

5. Policy Recommendations

• The report proposes a series of policy recommendations to improve revenue mobilization, fiscal decentralization, and service delivery.
• These include enhancing tax compliance, improving public financial management (PFM), and strengthening feedback mechanisms to increase citizen engagement.
• The federal government should focus on advocacy and policy coordination, while state and district governments should be empowered to deliver services and manage resources effectively.

Key Information

Key Challenges

• Low tax-to-GDP ratios and inefficient revenue collection.
• Fragmentation of the federal government and limited intergovernmental transfers.
• Weak institutional capacity at all levels of government.
• Limited public trust in government institutions, especially in local governance.
• High wage bill as a percentage of public expenditure, which strains state budgets.

Key Opportunities

• Tax reform and improved tax compliance through modernization and better communication.
• Fiscal federalism as a framework for decentralizing power and resources.
• Enhanced public engagement and participation in governance and service delivery.
• Increased domestic revenue through taxation reforms and better coordination between federal and state levels.

Key Recommendations

• Modernize tax systems and improve tax morale through better communication and enforcement.
• Strengthen fiscal decentralization by increasing intergovernmental transfers and capacity building at the local level.
• Improve service delivery by enhancing local government capacity, public infrastructure, and community engagement.
• Enhance transparency and accountability through feedback mechanisms and participatory governance.
• Increase domestic revenue by implementing tax reforms, especially in income and customs taxation, and improving revenue forecasting.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of building an affordable and effective state in Somalia through revenue mobilization, fiscal decentralization, and improved service delivery. It highlights the need for institutional reforms, capacity building, and greater citizen participation to strengthen the social contract and ensure sustainable development. The federal government must play a coordinating and advocacy role, while state and district governments should be empowered to manage resources and deliver services effectively. The World Bank and Somalia's federal and state governments are encouraged to collaborate on these reforms to achieve long-term stability and growth.