20260226-招银国际-Semiconductors_Nvidia_s_4Q_earnings_Widening_the_moat_withmulti-year_visibility_4页_752kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Semiconductors # Nvidia's 4Q earnings: Widening the moat with multi-year visibility Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) released its 4QFY26 earnings, with revenue up $73\%$ YoY/20% QoQ to US$68bn (beating BBG consensus by 2.6%), and EPS up \(82\%$ YoY/25% QoQ to US\)1.62 (beating BBG consensus by 5.0%). GPM was $75.2\%$, improving from $73.6\%$ in 3Q and beating BBG consensus of $74.3\%$. Mgmt. guides 1QFY27 revenue to be US\)78bn, implying $\sim$US$10bn step-up (vs. US$11bn last quarter), while GPM is guided to be $75\%$. Overall, Nvidia delivered another strong beat-and-raise 4Q, confirming the robust compute demand from hyperscalers, neo-clouds, sovereign AI, enterprises, etc. Mgmt. also highlights now is an inflection point for agentic AI, with compute capacity now directly translating into revenue generation for customers, per mgmt.. Data Center saw increasing contribution from networking while compute remains dominant. DC revenue reached US $62bn (up $75\%$ YoY/22% QoQ) in 4Q, with Blackwell now accounting for $\sim 2 / 3$ and hyperscalers making up $50\%+$ of total DC sales. Mgmt. highlighted a meaningful inflection in demand mix, noting that inference is rapidly strengthening and has reached revenue parity with training for its customers, as every token generated directly translates into monetization. In addition, networking segment revenue reached a record US$11bn in 4Q (up $263\%$ YoY/34% QoQ), driven by robust demand for NVLink switches (scale-up) and accelerating adoption of Spectrum-X Ethernet across both scale-up and scale-across architectures. As customers increasingly interconnect distributed data centers into integrated, gigascale AI supercomputers, Nvidia's networking segment is evolving from a supporting component into a structural competitive moat. The Vera Rubin platform is on track for mass shipments in 2H26 with GPM sustaining in mid-70s. The Rubin platform is engineered to reduce inference token costs by up to 10x and can train Mixture of Experts (MoE) models using only a quarter of the GPUs required for Blackwell. Mgmt. expects every cloud model builder to deploy Rubin even as Blackwell continues to sell throughout the year. Financially, the Company expects to maintain GPM in the mid-70s throughout CY26 as the Rubin platform ramps, driven by X-factor leaps in performance per watt and performance per dollar, which significantly improves tokenomics. By allowing customers to generate more revenue per unit of investment, Nvidia makes it economically rational for AI factories to transition to its latest products. Sales across ex-DC segments remain uneven. ProViz revenue reached US$1.3bn (+159% YoY/74% QoQ) as developers adopt Blackwell workstations for agentic workflows. Gaming was US$3.7bn, down 12.6% QoQ as mgmt. expects supply constraints will remain a persistent headwind for the segment in the near term. Auto reached US\)604mn, up 6% YoY/2% QoQ as Physical AI begins to gain traction, which has generated revenue of US6bn+ in FY26, anchored by robotaxi fleets providers (Waymo, Tesla, etc.) that continue to scale over the next decade. - Maintain BUY on Innolight (300308 CH, TP: RMB707) and Shengyi Tech (600183 CH, TP: RMB90), both of which remain direct beneficiaries of Nvidia's sustained demand momentum and platform upgrade cycle. Other observations from 4Q earnings call: China revenue de-risking: China-related revenue continues to be excluded from the Company's revenue guidance for 1QFY27. GPM resilience: Strong GPM guidance of mid-70s throughout CY26 alleviates inflated memory cost concerns. # OUTPERFORM (Maintain) # China Semiconductors Sector Kevin ZHANG (852) 3761 8727 kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk 1. Innolight (300308 CH) - Pluggables first, new architecture later (link) 2. Semiconductors - TSMC earnings: Cautious optimism confirmed by Al profitability (link) 3. Semiconductors - Nvidia: Solid 3Q results; 4Q guidance should alleviate AI bubble concerns (link) 4. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: 1H25 AI demand check; Compute demand continues to grow (link) 5. Semiconductors - Solid 2Q results for Broadcom; eyes on the development of AI inference (link) 6. Semiconductors - Nvidia's 1Q beat and solid 2Q guidance confirm AI demand remains resilient (link) 7. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: China's hyperscalers accelerate AI infrastructure buildout amid strengthening cloud demand (link) 8. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: Resilient 1Q25 capex among hyperscalers (link) 9. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: Alibaba's bold capex hike a boost to domestic AI infrastructure suppliers (link) 10. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: Views on DeepSeek (link) 11. Semiconductors - Thematic investing and megatrends: Stargate poised to accelerate global AI arms race (link) 12. Semiconductors - TSMC: Surging AI demands propelled strong results and guidance (link) 13. Semiconductors - Nvidia's 3Q earnings takeaway: Strong demand for Blackwell well into next year (link) 14. Semiconductors - AMD "Advancing AI" event (link) Agentic AI inflection: the arrival of agentic systems like OpenAI Codex and Claude Cowork is driving a surge in token and compute demand. Sovereign AI scale: National investments have tripled YoY to US$30bn+ as countries fund AI infrastructure proportional to their GDP, according to Nvidia. Figure 1: Nvidia's quarterly segment revenue 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25 1QFY26 2QFY26 3QFY26 4QFY26 数据来源：公司官网，以及行业资讯 (US$mn) Data Center 4,284 10,323 14,514 18,404 22,563 26,272 30,771 35,580 39,112 41,096 51,215 62,314 YoY 14.2% 171.2% 278.7% 409.0% 426.7% 154.5% 112.0% 93.3% 73.3% 56.4% 66.4% 75.1% QoQ 18.5% 141.0% 40.6% 26.8% 22.6% 16.4% 17.1% 15.6% 9.9% 5.1% 24.6% 21.7% % 59.6% 76.4% 80.1% 83.3% 86.6% 87.5% 87.7% 90.5% 88.8% 87.9% 89.8% 91.5% Compute 3,357 8,612 11,908 15,073 19,392 22,604 27,644 32,556 34,155 33,844 43,000 51,334 YoY 477.7% 162.5% 132.1% 116.0% 76.1% 49.7% 55.5% 57.7% QoQ 156.5% 38.3% 26.6% 28.7% 16.6% 22.3% 17.8% 4.9% -0.9% 27.1% 19.3% % revenue 46.7% 63.8% 65.7% 68.2% 74.5% 75.2% 78.8% 82.8% 77.5% 72.4% 75.4% 75.4% Networking 927 1,711 2,606 3,331 3,171 3,668 3,127 3,024 4,957 7,252 8,215 10,980 YoY 242.1% 114.4% 20.0% -9.2% 56.3% 97.7% 162.7% 263.1% QoQ 84.6% 52.3% 27.8% -4.8% 15.7% -14.7% -3.3% 63.9% 46.3% 13.3% 34.1% % revenue 12.9% 12.7% 14.4% 15.1% 12.2% 12.2% 8.9% 7.7% 11.3% 15.5% 14.4% 16.1% Gaming 2,240 2,486 2856 2865 2647 2,880 3,279 2,544 3,763 4,287 4,265 3,727 YoY -38.1% 21.7% 81.4% 56.5% 18.2% 15.8% 14.8% -11.2% 42.2% 48.9% 30.1% 46.5% QoQ 22.3% 11.0% 14.9% 0.3% -7.6% 8.8% 13.9% -22.4% 47.9% 13.9% -0.5% -12.6% % 31.1% 18.4% 15.8% 13.0% 10.2% 9.6% 9.3% 6.5% 8.5% 9.2% 7.5% 5.5% ProViz 295 379 416 463 427 454 486 511 509 601 760 1,321 YoY -52.6% -23.6% 108.0% 104.9% 44.7% 19.8% 16.8% 10.4% 19.2% 32.4% 56.4% 158.5% QoQ 30.5% 28.5% 9.8% 11.3% -7.8% 6.3% 7.0% 5.1% -0.4% 18.1% 26.5% 73.8% % 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% Automotive 296 253 261 281 329 346 449 570 567 586 592 604 YoY 114.5% 15.0% 4.0% -4.4% 11.1% 36.8% 72.0% 102.8% 72.3% 69.4% 31.8% 6.0% QoQ 0.7% -14.5% 3.2% 7.7% 17.1% 5.2% 29.8% 26.9% -0.5% 3.4% 1.0% 2.0% % 4.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% OEM & Other 77 66 73 90 78 88 97 126 111 173 174 161 YoY -51.3% -52.9% 0.0% 7.1% 1.3% 33.3% 32.9% 40.0% 42.3% 96.6% 79.4% 27.8% QoQ -8.3% -14.3% 10.6% 23.3% -13.3% 12.8% 10.2% 29.9% -11.9% 55.9% 0.6% -7.5% % 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Revenue 7,192 13,507 18,120 22,103 26,044 30,040 35,082 39,331 44,062 46,743 57,006 68,127 YoY% -13.2% 101.5% 205.5% 265.3% 262.1% 122.4% 93.6% 77.9% 69.2% 55.6% 62.5% 73.2% QoQ% 18.9% 87.8% 34.2% 22.0% 17.8% 15.3% 16.8% 12.1% 12.0% 6.1% 22.0% 19.5% Source: Company data, CMBIGM Breaking down the datacenter revenue in 4QFY26, $82 \%$ was compute (US $\$ 51$ bn, up $58 \%$ YoY and $19 \%$ QoQ), while $18 \%$ was networking (US $\$ 1$ 1bn, up $263 \%$ YoY and $34 \%$ QoQ). Based on mgmt.'s guidance, Nvidia's non-GAAP GPM is guided to be $75.0 \%$ (GAAP: $74.9 \%$ ) in 1QFY27. Figure 2: Nvidia's datacenter quarterly revenue breakdown by segment Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 3: Nvidia's non-GAAP GPM trend Source: Company data, CMBIGM Note: Includes H20 charges/(releases), net, which were US $4.5bn and (US$ 180mn) for the first and second quarter of fiscal 2026, respectively, and insignificant for both the third and fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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