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EMERGING TECH RESEARCH: Carbon & Emissions Tech – Q3 2024 Report Summary

Key Findings:

• Investment Decline: Q3 2024 venture capital (VC) investment in carbon & emissions tech fell to $2.3 billion, down from $2.5 billion in Q2 2024 and significantly lower than the $8.8 billion peak recorded in Q3 2023.
• Contributing Factors: Uncertainty around climate policies in the U.S., as the presidential election injects political ambiguity affecting early-stage startups.
• Sector Variations: Sectors like direct air capture (DAC) face scaling challenges due to aggressive roadmaps requiring massive funding, leading firms like CarbonCapture to pause projects.
• Market Growth Trends: Industrial point-source carbon capture and carbon utilization (e.g., sustainable aviation fuel) remain attractive, while biology-based carbon removal advances through new technologies.

VC Deal Activity Trends:

Reduced exits and fewer rounds targeting large-scale industrial scaling were noted, with land use emerging as a key sector.

Major Q3 Events:

• Project Bison: CarbonCapture paused Wyoming’s $1B DAC project citing high competition for clean energy support.
• Amazon Offset Deal: $180M credits via the LEAF Coalition underscore corporate demand for voluntary carbon offsets.
• Standout Investments:
  • Twelve: $245M Series C for carbon-to-fuel/chemical tech.
  • Switch Bioworks: $23.6M seed for microbial fertilizer alternative.
  • 6K: $82M for low-carbon material production scaling.

Market Segmentation Highlights:

• Carbon Utilization: Dominates deal activity (approx. $827M in Q3), led by companies like Twelve advancing SAF.
• Land Use Technologies: Growing focus on sustainable materials (e.g., 6K, Infinitum).
• Built Environment Decline: Slower activity post-boom period.

Company Spotlight: Mantel

• Technology: High-temperature molten borate carbon capture, distinct from conventional amine-based systems for point-source installations.
• Advantages: Lower energy use, durability, and tolerance to extreme heat—ideal for industrial processes.
• Recent Funding: $30M Series A to develop a 1,800-ton CO2 capture demonstration.
• Exit Outlook: 77% chance of success via venture exit (VC Exit Predictor).

Insights & Outlook:

• DAC Challenges: Aggressive scaling targets face funding and technological hurdles; market may be over-optimistic.
• Government Role: Prioritized point-source capture over DAC, but DAC remains underdeveloped without incentives.
• Market Opportunity: Biological carbon removal and circular economy solutions (recycling, carbon utilization) are gaining momentum.

Bottom Line: While broader VC activity slowed, consolidation in carbon utilization and point-source capture progresses, with policy alignment representing a key future pillar.